- International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
- Published Date:
- October 2014
©2014 International Monetary Fund
Regional economic outlook. Middle East and Central Asia. – Washington, D.C. :
International Monetary Fund, 2004–
v. ; cm. – (World economic and financial surveys, 0258-7440)
Twice a year.
Began in 2004.
Some issues also have thematic titles.
1. Economic forecasting – Middle East – Periodicals. 2. Economic forecasting – Asia, Central – Periodicals. 3. Middle East – Economic conditions – Periodicals. 4. Asia, Central – Economic conditions – Periodicals. 5. Economic development – Middle East – Periodicals. 6. Economic development – Asia, Central – Periodicals. I. Title: Middle East and Central Asia. II. International Monetary Fund. III. Series: World economic and financial surveys.
ISBN: 978-1-49834-373-2 (Paper)
ISBN: 978-1-49830-232-6 (Web PDF)
The Middle East and Central Asia Regional Economic Outlook is published annually in the fall to review developments in the Middle East and Central Asia. Both projection and policy considerations are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
Please send orders to:
International Monetary Fund
P.O. Box 92780
Washington, DC 20090, U.S.A.
Tel.: (202) 623-7430 Fax: (202) 623-7201
- Assumptions and Conventions
- Country Groupings
- World Economic Outlook
- Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan
- MENAP Region Highlights
- Région MOANAP: Principaux Points
- 1. MENAP Oil Exporters: Increasing Diversification, Reducing Reliance on Oil-Funded Spending
- 2. MENAP Oil Importers: Slow Recovery and Modest Prospects Call for Reform
- Caucasus and Central Asia
- CCA Region Highlights
- 3. Caucasus and Central Asia: Increased Risks Highlight Need for Reform
- Annex I. Medium-Term Economic Prospects in the MENAP and CCA Regions
- Annex II. Public Infrastructure Investment in the MENAP and CCA Regions
- Annex III. Access to Finance for Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in the MENAP and CCA Regions
- Annex IV. Measuring Inclusiveness in the MENAP and CCA Regions
- Annex V. Economic Cooperation and Integration in the CCA
- Statistical Appendix
- 1.1 Economic Implications of the Iraq Conflict
- 1.2 Capital Flows to GCC Countries
- 2.1 Better Protection for the Poor in MENA
- 2.2 Impact of Fiscal Measures on Jobs in MENAP Oil-Importing Economies
- 2.3 Shifting Patterns in Official External Financing in MENAP Oil Importers
- 3.1 Growth Shocks in Russia: Implications for the CCA
- 3.2 Reducing Financial Dollarization in the CCA
- 1.1 Growth to Rise on Delayed Non-GCC Recovery
- 1.2 Faster Growth Has Not Prompted Higher Inflation
- 1.3 MENAP Oil Exporters: Real Effective Exchange Rates
- 1.4 Oil Price Uncertainties Increase Vulnerabilities
- 1.5 Wages and Capital Raise GCC Government Spending
- 1.6 Fiscal Positions Are Weakening
- 1.7 High Oil Prices Will Not Save Fiscal Positions
- 1.8 Nonhydrocarbon Deficits Are Too High for Intergenerational Equity in Most Countries
- 1.9 Oil and Gas Consumption Are Growing
- 1.10 Current Account Balances Are Falling
- 1.11 GDP Growth Relies on Rising Oil Prices
- 1.12 Signs That Labor Market Reforms Are Bearing Fruit?
- 1.13 Public Sector Wage Bills Are High
- 2.1 Consumption and Investment Drive Contributions to Real GDP Growth
- 2.2 Exports of Goods and Foreign Direct Investment
- 2.3 Risk Premiums Are Declining
- 2.4 Real Exchange Rate in MENAP Oil Importers
- 2.5 Growth Insufficient to Improve Living Standards
- 2.6 Inflation Pressures Persist
- 2.7 Fiscal Deficit and Reserves
- 2.8 Change in Revenue and Expenditure
- 2.9 Fiscal Financing Needs
- 2.10 External Financing Needs
- 2.11 Raising Medium-Term Growth and Job Prospects Requires Structural Reforms
- 3.1 Real GDP Growth
- 3.2 CCA: Real GDP Growth
- 3.3 Growth Revisions versus Policy Buffers
- 3.4 Linkages with Russia
- 3.5 Mixed Progress in Structural Reforms
- 3.6 Inflation versus Nominal Exchange Rate Depreciation
- 3.7 Current Account Balances
- 3.8 Real Exchange Rate versus Current Account Balance
- 3.9 Fiscal Balances
- 3.10 Fiscal Transparency Index
- 3.11 Pretax Energy Subsidies and Spending on Health and Education
- 3.12 Credit to GDP versus Trend
- 3.13 CCA versus Emerging Markets: Voice and Accountability
- 3.14 Sustainable Growth Requires Bold Structural Reforms
- 3.15 Control of Corruption
- 3.16 CCA: Growth, Inequality, and Employment
- 3.17 CCA versus Emerging Markets: Economic Complexity
- A1.1 Non-Oil Potential GDP Growth
- A1.2 Composition of Recent Non-Oil Potential Growth Slowdown
- A1.3 Drivers of Differences in Non-Oil Potential Growth with Emerging Market and Developing Countries
- A1.4 Contributions to Non-Oil Potential Growth
- A1.5 Medium-Term Growth above Baseline If Underlying Structural Variables Reach Emerging Market and Developing Country Levels
- A2.1 Public Capital Spending
- A2.2 Infrastructure Quality and GDP per Capita
- A2.3 Public Investment and Physical Infrastructure Needs, 2014–19
- A2.4 Impact of Higher Public Investment on Real GDP Growth
- A2.5 Public Investment Management Index, by Region
- A2.6 Financing for Infrastructure and Other Investments
- A3.1 Access to Finance: An Overview
- A3.2 Indices for Legal Rights and Credit Information
- A4.1 Population Living on $4 or Less, 2000–10
- A4.2 Land Gini Index
- A4.3 GDP per Capita
- A4.4 GDP per Capita Growth
- A4.5 Population Living in Multidimensional Poverty
- A4.6 Educational Attainment
- A4.7 Access to Bank Services
- A4.8 Employment-to-Population Ratio
- A4.9 Unemployment Rate
- A4.10 Youth Unemployment Rate
- A4.11 Labor Force Participation Rate
- A4.12 Female-to-Male Labor Force Participation
- A4.13 Global Gender Gap Index, 2006–13
- A4.14 Rural-to-Urban Access to Improved Water Source
- A4.15 Rural-to-Urban Access to Improved Sanitation
- A5.1 Intraregional Trade
- A5.2 CCA’s Share in the Global Economy
- A5.3 CCA: Trade Composition Change Between 2000 and 2013
- A5.4 Selected CCA: Export Composition
- A5.5 Selected CCA: Export Share to Top Three Trading Partners
- 2.1 Spending on Energy Subsidies
- 3.1 Exchange Rate and Monetary Frameworks
- A3.1 Reforms and Institutional Arrangements to Enhance SME Access to Finance
- A4.1 Measures of Inequality
- A4.2 Size of the Middle Class Using Alternative Definitions
- A5.1 CCA: Trade Shift from Russia to China
- A5.2 Intraregional Trade Costs
The Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia (REO) is prepared annually by the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department (MCD). The analysis and projections contained in the MCD REO are integral elements of the department’s surveillance of economic developments and policies in 31 member countries. It draws primarily on information gathered by MCD staff through their consultations with member countries.
The analysis in this report was coordinated under the general supervision of Masood Ahmed (Director of MCD). The project was directed by Alfred Kammer (Deputy Director of MCD), Natalia Tamirisa (Chief of MCD’s Regional Studies Division), and Harald Finger (Deputy Chief of MCD’s Regional Studies Division). The primary contributors to this report are Alberto Behar, Sami Ben Naceur, Amr Hosny, and Pritha Mitra.
Other contributors include Gohar Abajyan, Abdullah Al-Hassan, Anja Baum, Robert Blotevogel, Mauricio Calani, Martin Cerisola, Mark Fischer, Davide Furceri, Gregory Hadjian, Mark Horton, Inutu Lukonga, Amine Mati, Gohar Minasyan, Tokhir Mirzoev, Francisco Parodi, Gaelle Pierre, Haonan Qu, Hossein Samiei, Carlo Sdralevich, Martin Sommer, Bruno Versailles, SeokHyun Yoon, Younes Zouhar, and Roman Zytek.
Gohar Abajyan, Gregory Hadjian, and Brian Hiland provided research assistance and managed the database and computer systems, with support from Mandana Dehghanian, Soledad Feal-Zubimendi, Mark Fischer, Juan Carlos Flores, and Jonah Rosenthal. Sanaa Farid and Cecilia Prado de Guzman were responsible for word processing and document management. Yasser Abdih, Giorgia Albertin, Faisal Alotaibi, Saad Alshahrani, Aidyn Bibolov, Carolin Geginat, Claire Gicquel, Mbaye Gueye, Fuad Hasanov, Amgad Hegazy, Sarah Knight, Amina Lahreche, Edouard Martin, Gohar Minasyan, Tokhir Mirzoev, Gaelle Pierre, Haiyan Shi, Anna Unigovskaya, and Bruno Versailles reviewed the translations. Kia Penso edited the manuscript and helped manage the production of the publication in close collaboration with Joanne Johnson of the Communications Department, assisted by Katy Whipple and Martha Bonilla.
Assumptions and Conventions
A number of assumptions have been adopted for the projections presented in the Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia. It has been assumed that established policies of national authorities will be maintained, that the price of oil1 will average US$102.7 a barrel in 2014 and US$99.4 in 2015, and that the six-month London interbank offered rate on U.S.-dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2014 and 0.7 percent in 2015. These are, of course, working hypotheses rather than forecasts, and the uncertainties surrounding them add to the margin of error that would in any event be involved in the projections. The 2014 and 2015 data in the figures and tables are projections. These projections are based on statistical information available through early September 2014.
The following conventions are used in this publication:
- In tables, ellipsis points (…) indicate “not available,” and 0 or 0.0 indicates “zero” or “negligible.” Minor discrepancies between sums of constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.
- An en dash (–) between years or months (for example, 2011–12 or January–June) indicates the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months; a slash or virgule (/) between years or months (for example, 2011/12) indicates a fiscal or financial year, as does the abbreviation FY (for example, FY2012).
- “Billion” means a thousand million; “trillion” means a thousand billion.
- “Basis points (bps)” refer to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to ¼ of 1 percentage point).
As used in this publication, the term “country” does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.
The boundaries, colors, denominations, and any other information shown on the maps do not imply, on the part of the International Monetary Fund, any judgment on the legal status of any territory or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.1 Simple average of prices of U.K. Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil.
The October 2014 Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia (REO), covering countries in the Middle East and Central Asia Department (MCD) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), provides a broad overview of recent economic developments in 2014 and prospects and policy issues for 2015. To facilitate the analysis, the 31 MCD countries covered in this report are divided into two groups: (1) countries of the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP)—which are further divided into oil exporters and oil importers; and (2) countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA). The country acronyms used in some figures are included in parentheses.
MENAP oil exporters (MENAPOE) comprise Algeria (ALG), Bahrain (BHR), Iran (IRN), Iraq (IRQ), Kuwait (KWT), Libya (LBY), Oman (OMN), Qatar (QAT), Saudi Arabia (SAU), the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Yemen (YMN).
MENAP oil importers1 (MENAPOI) comprise Afghanistan (AFG), Djibouti (DJI), Egypt (EGY), Jordan (JOR), Lebanon (LBN), Mauritania (MRT), Morocco (MAR), Pakistan (PAK), Somalia (SOM), Sudan (SDN), Syria (SYR), and Tunisia (TUN).
MENA comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Oman, Mauritania, Morocco, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.
MENA oil importers comprise Djibouti, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Mauritania, Morocco, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, and Tunisia.
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) comprises Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
The non-GCC oil-exporting countries are Algeria, Iran, Iraq, Libya, and Yemen.
The Maghreb comprises Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, and Tunisia.
The Mashreq comprises Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria.
The Arab Countries in Transition (ACTs) are Egypt, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia, and Yemen.
The Arab World comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.
CCA countries comprise Armenia (ARM), Azerbaijan (AZE), Georgia (GEO), Kazakhstan (KAZ), the Kyrgyz Republic (KGZ), Tajikistan (TJK), Turkmenistan (TKM), and Uzbekistan (UZB).
CCA oil exporters comprise Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.
CCA oil importers comprise Armenia, Georgia, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan.
The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) comprises Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, Mongolia, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. Georgia, Mongolia, and Turkmenistan, though not members of the CIS, are included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.1 Because of the uncertain economic situation, Syria is excluded from the projection years of REO aggregates.