- Catherine Pattillo, Andrew Berg, Gian Milesi-Ferretti, and Eduardo Borensztein
- Published Date:
- January 2000
©1999 International Monetary Fund
Production: IMF Graphics Section
Typesetting: Jack Federici
Figures: In-Ok Yoon
Anticipating balance of payments crises : the role of early warning systems / Andrew Berg … [et al.]— Washington D.C. International Monetary Fund, 1999.
p. cm.(Occasional paper, ISSN 0251-6365 ; no. 186)
Includes bibliographical references.
1. Balance of payments - Developing countries. 2. Balance of payments. 3. Currency question. 4. Financial crises I. Berg, Andrew. II Occasional paper (International Monetary Fund); no. 186.
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- I Overview
- II What Causes Balance of Payments Crises?
- III Issues in the Design of Early Warning Systems
- IV How Well Do the Models Perform?
- V The Implementation of an Early Warning System
- Appendix. A Survey of the Literature on Currency Crises
- IV 1. Summary Measures of Model Performance
- II 1. Fifteen Heavily Indebted Countries: Summary Indicators
- IV 2. Performance of Kaminsky-Lizondo-Reinhart (KLR) Indicators
- 3. Predictive Power of Kaminsky-Lizondo-Reinhart (KLR), Frankel-Rose (FR), and Developing Country Studies Division (DCSD) Models–In-Sample
- 4. Correlation of Actual and Predicted Rankings Based on Sachs-Tornell-Velasco (STV) Approach: In-Sample
- 5. Predictive Power of Kaminsky-Lizondo-Reinhart and Developing Country Studies Division Models: Out-of-Sample
- 6. Correlation of Actual and Predicted Rankings for 1997
- I 1. Exchange Rate Expectations
- II 2. Mexico, 1994: Indicators of Vulnerability
- III 3. 24-Month-Ahead Crisis Probabilities for Selected Countries
The following symbols have been used throughout this paper:
- … to indicate that data are not available;
- — to indicate that the figure is zero or less than half the final digit shown, or that the item does not exist;
- – between years or months (e.g., 1994–95 or January–June) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months;
- / between years (e.g., 1994/95) to indicate a crop or fiscal (financial) year.
- ”Billion” means a thousand million.
Minor discrepancies between constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.
The term “country,” as used in this paper, does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice; the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states, but for which statistical data are maintained and provided internationally on a separate and independent basis.
The material presented in this paper was originally prepared for discussions in the IMF Executive Board in January 1999. The authors are especially indebted to Paul R. Masson for his overall guidance and helpful suggestions on the various drafts. The paper, or material incorporated in it, has benefited from the comments of members of the Executive Board and staff in the ReseaRch Department as well as other departments of the IMF. In this connection the authors are particularly grateful to Stanley Fischer, Michael Mussa, Peter Clark, Enrica Detragiache, Ricardo Faini, Robert Flood, and Christian Mulder.
The authors would like to express thanks to a number of commentators in the academic and policy community, notably Graciela Kaminsky, Carmen Reinhart, Andrew Rose, and Aaron Tornell for help in reproducing and interpreting their results and Hali Edison, Robert Hodrick, and Steve Kamin for comments.
The authors would also like to thank Manzoor Gill and Nada Mora for superb research assistance, and Usha David and Margaret Dapaah for excellent secretarial assistance. Esha Ray of the External Relations Department edited and coordinated the production of the paper.
The views expressed here, as well as any errors, are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the IMF or its Executive Directors.