Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s): Andrew Berg , Eduardo Borensztein , and Catherine Pattillo
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date: 01 March 2004
Keywords: vulnerability indicators, crisis prediction, forecasting accuracy, balance of payments crisis, probability, predictions, currency crisis, probabilities, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,
Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork...