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Forecasting Thailand's Core Inflation

Forecasting Thailand's Core Inflation »

Source: Forecasting Thailand's Core Inflation

Volume/Issue: 2004/90

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tao Sun

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2004

ISBN: 9781451851427

Keywords: Core Inflation, cointegration, statistics, equation, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper develops an approach for forecasting in Thailand core inflation. The key innovation is to anchor the projections derived from the short-term time-series properties of core inflation to its longer-run evo...

Exchange Rate Pass-Through Over the Business Cycle in Singapore

Exchange Rate Pass-Through Over the Business Cycle in Singapore »

Source: Exchange Rate Pass-Through Over the Business Cycle in Singapore

Volume/Issue: 2011/141

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Siang Tan , Joey Chew , and Sam Ouliaris

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2011

ISBN: 9781455266425

Keywords: exchange rate, business cycle, consumer price index, output gap, monetary policy, Business Fluctuations, And Cycles, Central Banking, And The Supply Of Money And Credit, international Finance

This paper investigates exchange rate pass-through in Singapore using band-pass spectral regression techniques, allowing for asymmetric effects over the business cycle. First stage pass-through is estimated to be c...

The Composition and Cyclical Behavior of Trade Flows in Emerging Economies1

The Composition and Cyclical Behavior of Trade Flows in Emerging Economies1 »

Source: The Composition and Cyclical Behavior of Trade Flows in Emerging Economies

Volume/Issue: 2010/46

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Reinout De Bock

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2010

ISBN: 9781451963106

Keywords: International business cycles, Emerging economy, Trade balance, capital good, open economy, trade flows, investment goods, Open Economy Macroeconomics,

Trade flows data show that the composition and cyclical properties of imports are similar in developed economies and emerging markets (EM) but this is not the case for exports. Unlike developed economies, (i) EM ex...

Spillovers from China's Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies

Spillovers from China's Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies »

Source: Spillovers from China's Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies

Volume/Issue: 2016/170

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Allan Dizioli , Jaime Guajardo , Vladimir Klyuev , Rui Mano , and Mehdi Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 August 2016

ISBN: 9781475524260

Keywords: China’;s slowdown and rebalancing, international business cycle, spillovers, Global VAR, Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM), ASEAN-5.

After many years of rapid expansion, China's growth is slowing to more sustainable levels and is rebalancing, with consumption becoming the main growth driver. This transition is likely to have negative effects on...

Financial Crises  Explanations, Types, and Implications

Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications »

Source: Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications

Volume/Issue: 2013/28

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Stijn Claessens , and Ayhan Kose

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 January 2013

ISBN: 9781475561005

Keywords: debt crises, defaults, policy implications, financial restructuring, asset booms, crises prediction, International Business Cycles, General, crises prediction.,

This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlig...

Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization

Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization »

Source: Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization

Volume/Issue: 2003/81

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jean Imbs

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2003

ISBN: 9781451850383

Keywords: specialization, financial openness, international business cycle, optimal currency area, financial integration, equation, correlations, correlation, bilateral trade, Open Economy Macroeconomics,

The paper investigates the determinants of business cycles synchronization across regions. It uses both international and intranational data to evaluate the linkages between trade in goods, trade in financial asset...

Forecasting Inflation in Indonesia

Forecasting Inflation in Indonesia »

Source: Forecasting Inflation in Indonesia

Volume/Issue: 2002/111

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Uma Ramakrishnan , and Athanasios Vamvakidis

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2002

ISBN: 9781451853483

Keywords: inflation forecasting, monetary policy, price inflation, monetary fund, money supply, Model Construction and Estimation, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation,

A reliable inflation-forecasting model is central for a sound monetary policy framework. In this paper, we study the domestic and international transmission effects on inflation in Indonesia and analyze the possibl...

Philippines

Philippines »

Source: Philippines : Preparations for Inflation Targeting

Volume/Issue: 2001/99

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Piyabha Kongsamut

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2001

ISBN: 9781451852271

Keywords: inflation targeting, inflation modeling, inflation, inflation target, central bank, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation, Targeting,

The Philippines is planning to shift toward adoption of an inflation targeting framework in 2001. This paper reviews key policy issues in this context, describes various operational and technical preparations, and...

Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization: A Reappraisal with Focus on Asia

Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization: A Reappraisal with Focus on Asia »

Source: Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization : A Reappraisal with Focus on Asia

Volume/Issue: 2014/52

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Romain Duval , Kevin Cheng , Kum Hwa Oh , Richa Saraf , and Dulani Seneviratne

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 April 2014

ISBN: 9781475522464

Keywords: Value Added, Business Cycle Synchronization, Asia, trade intensity, trade integration, industry trade, trade data, impact of trade, International Policy Coordination and Transmission, Asia.,

This paper reexamines the relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization (BCS) using new value-added trade data for 63 advanced and emerging economies during 1995-2012. In a panel framewo...

Default, Credit Growth, and Asset Prices

Default, Credit Growth, and Asset Prices »

Source: Default, Credit Growth, and Asset Prices

Volume/Issue: 2006/223

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): C. Goodhart , Miguel Segoviano Basurto , and Boris Hofmann

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2006

ISBN: 9781451864830

Keywords: Probability of default, macroeconomic shocks, financial surveillance, banking, bank lending, probability, Econometric Modeling: General, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation

This paper uses a Merton-type estimate of the probability of default (PoD) for the main banks in a sample of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and middle-income countries as a proxy for the frag...