Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s): Amadou Sy
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date: 01 June 2003
Keywords: Crisis, distress, early-warning systems, probability of default, ratings, currency crises, currency crisis, debt crises, bond, sovereign default
In contrast to the early-warning system literature, we find that currency and debt crises are not closely linked in emerging markets. We find that after 1994, credit ratings predict debt crises but fail to anticipa...