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Much Ado About Nothing? Estimating the Impact of a U.S. Slowdown on Thai Growth

Much Ado About Nothing? Estimating the Impact of a U.S. Slowdown on Thai Growth »

Source: Much Ado About Nothing? Estimating the Impact of a U.S. Slowdown on Thai Growth

Volume/Issue: 2008/140

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Shekhar Aiyar , and Ivan Tchakarov

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2008

ISBN: 9781451869989

Keywords: Growth, U.S. Slowdown, Bayesian Estimation, monetary policy, inflation, confidence intervals, correlation, equation,

External demand was the main driver of growth in Thailand in 2006 and 2007. However, WEO projections indicate moderating foreign demand in 2008, with U.S. growth being revised downwards to reflect the turmoil in ho...

Trade Finance and Trade Flows

Trade Finance and Trade Flows »

Source: Trade Finance and Trade Flows : Panel Data Evidence From 10 Crises

Volume/Issue: 2004/225

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Márcio Ronci

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2004

ISBN: 9781451875386

Keywords: crisis, equations, statistics, logarithm, export volumes, Trade: General, International Finance: General,

This paper assesses the effect of constrained trade finance on trade flows in countries undergoing financial and balance of payments crises. Most of the countries that had a major crisis had a significant trade con...

Speculative Attacks in the Asian Crisis

Speculative Attacks in the Asian Crisis »

Source: Speculative Attacks in the Asian Crisis

Volume/Issue: 2001/189

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Zhiwei Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2001

ISBN: 9781451859614

Keywords: ACH, currency crisis, duration analysis, contagion, speculative attacks, asian crisis, currency crises, equation, Econometric Modeling,

This paper takes the Asian crisis as an example to show that the Autoregressive Conditional Hazard (ACH) model is a powerful tool for studying the time series features of speculative attacks. The ACH model proposes...

Spend Now, Pay Later? Tax Smoothing and Fiscal Sustainability in South Asia

Spend Now, Pay Later? Tax Smoothing and Fiscal Sustainability in South Asia »

Source: Spend Now, Pay Later? Tax Smoothing and Fiscal Sustainability in South Asia

Volume/Issue: 1999/63

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 1999

ISBN: 9781451848403

Keywords: Tax smoothing, tax tilting, fiscal sustainability, budget surplus, equation, fiscal deficits, government spending

This paper tests a version of Barro’s tax-smoothing model, which assumes intertemporal optimization by a government seeking to minimize the distortionary costs of taxation, using Pakistan and Sri Lankan data...

Market-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities and its Application to Financial Market Surveillance

Market-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities and its Application to Financial Market Surveillance »

Source: Market-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities and its Application to Financial Market Surveillance

Volume/Issue: 2006/104

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jorge Chan-Lau

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2006

ISBN: 9781451863642

Keywords: Default probability, security prices, financial surveillance, probabilities, probability, bond, equation, credit derivatives,

This paper reviews a number of different techniques for estimating default probabilities from the prices of publicly traded securities. These techniques are useful for assessing credit exposure, systemic risk, and...

Inflation Dynamics in Asia

Inflation Dynamics in Asia »

Source: Inflation Dynamics in Asia : Causes, Changes, and Spillovers From China

Volume/Issue: 2011/257

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Carolina Osorio , and Filiz Unsal

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2011

ISBN: 9781463923969

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), inflation dynamics, money supply, monetary shocks, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models, International Policy Coordination and Transmission,

The perception that Asia's inflation dynamics is driven by idiosyncratic supply shocks implies, as a corollary, that there is little scope for a policy reaction to a build-up of inflationary pressures. However, Asi...

Rent Seeking and Endogenous Income Inequality

Rent Seeking and Endogenous Income Inequality »

Source: Rent Seeking and Endogenous Income Inequality

Volume/Issue: 2001/15

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Wade , and Era Dabla-Norris

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2001

ISBN: 9781451843262

Keywords: lotteries, probability, expropriation, equation, credit markets, equations, Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions, Models of Political Processes: Rent-seeking

This paper studies the relationship between wealth inequality and occupational choice between rent-seeking and production. With imperfect credit markets and a fixed cost to rent-seeking, only wealthy agents choose...

Forecasting Thailand's Core Inflation

Forecasting Thailand's Core Inflation »

Source: Forecasting Thailand's Core Inflation

Volume/Issue: 2004/90

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tao Sun

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2004

ISBN: 9781451851427

Keywords: Core Inflation, cointegration, statistics, equation, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper develops an approach for forecasting in Thailand core inflation. The key innovation is to anchor the projections derived from the short-term time-series properties of core inflation to its longer-run evo...

Misalignment and Managed Exchange Rates

Misalignment and Managed Exchange Rates »

Source: Misalignment and Managed Exchange Rates : An Application to the Thai Baht

Volume/Issue: 2000/63

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): G. Lim

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2000

ISBN: 9781451848410

Keywords: Real exchange rate, misalignment, managed exchange rate system, time-series analysis, simulations, exchange rate, equation, cointegration, Thai Baht,

This paper proposes a methodology for analyzing dynamic misalignment in managed exchange rate systems that combines the estimation approach to modeling the real exchange rate with the calibration approach to genera...

Moral Hazard and International Crisis Lending: A Test

Moral Hazard and International Crisis Lending: A Test »

Source: Moral Hazard and International Crisis Lending : A Test

Volume/Issue: 2002/181

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Giovanni Dell'Ariccia , Jeronimo Zettelmeyer , and Isabel Schnabel

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2002

ISBN: 9781451859201

Keywords: international lending, bond, crisis lending, bond spreads, bonds, International Lending and Debt Problems, Econometric Methods: - Single Equation Models,

We test for the existence of a moral hazard effect attributable to official crisis lending by analyzing the evolution of sovereign bond spreads in emerging markets before and after the Russian crisis. The nonbailou...