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Crises, Labor Market Policy, and Unemployment

Crises, Labor Market Policy, and Unemployment »

Volume/Issue: 2012/65

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Davide Furceri , Lorenzo E. Bernal-Verdugo , and Dominique Guillaume

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463938420.001

ISBN: 9781463938420

Keywords: Labor market, flexibility, reforms, labor market institutions, labor market flexibility, labor market policies, Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment and Investment: Other

Using a sample of 97 countries spanning the period 1980?2008, we estimate that financial crises have a large negative impact on unemployment in the short term, but that this effect rapidly disappears in the medium...

Early Warning Systems
			: A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach

Early Warning Systems : A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach »

Volume/Issue: 2003/32

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Abdul Abiad

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451845136.001

ISBN: 9781451845136

Keywords: Currency crisis, early warning system, regime switching, Markov switching, probability, probabilities, currency crises, asian crisis, contagion, Forecasting and Other Model Applications

Previous early-warning systems (EWSs) for currency crises have relied on models that require a priori dating of crises. This paper proposes an alternative EWS, based on a Markov-switching model, which identifies an...

Economic Diversification in LICs
			: Stylized Facts and Macroeconomic Implications

Economic Diversification in LICs : Stylized Facts and Macroeconomic Implications »

Volume/Issue: 2012/13

Series: Staff Discussion Notes

Author(s): Chris Papageorgiou , and Nicola Spatafora

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 December 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475532180.006

ISBN: 9781475532180

Keywords: Trade and real-sector diversification, quality upgrading, volatility, growth, LICs, export diversification, external shocks, external trade, total exports, trading partners

Limited diversification is an underlying characteristic of many low-income countries (LICs). Concentration in sectors with limited scope for increases in productivity and quality may result in less broad-based and...

When China Sneezes Does ASEAN Catch a Cold?

When China Sneezes Does ASEAN Catch a Cold? »

Volume/Issue: 2016/214

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sohrab Rafiq

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 November 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475552607.001

ISBN: 9781475552607

Keywords: Cambodia, Cambodia, China, Cross country analysis, Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Emerging markets, Economic integration, Economic growth, Philippines, Indonesia

This paper looks at the effects of a China slowdown on Emerging Market Economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand) and Frontier Developing Economies (Cambodia, Lao P.D.R., and Vietnam) in ASEAN. The main finding...