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Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test »

Source: Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Volume/Issue: 1998/154

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , and Andrew Berg

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 1998

ISBN: 9781451857207

Keywords: Currency crises, vulnerability indicators, Asian crisis, balance of payments crises, crisis prediction, probability, probabilities, correlation, crisis index, predictions

This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been...

Currency Crises

Currency Crises »

Source: Currency Crises : In Search of Common Elements

Volume/Issue: 2000/67

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ranil Salgado , Jahangir Aziz , and Francesco Caramazza

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2000

ISBN: 9781451848892

Keywords: Currency Crises, outliers, banking crises, standard deviations, standard deviation

The paper seeks to identify common characteristics among a variety of macroeconomic and financial variables for a large sample of currency crises in industrial countries and emerging market economies. It covers cri...

Debt Maturity and the International Financial Architecture

Debt Maturity and the International Financial Architecture »

Source: Debt Maturity and the International Financial Architecture

Volume/Issue: 2004/137

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Olivier Jeanne

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2004

ISBN: 9781451855944

Keywords: debt contract, international financial architecture, debt contracts, International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions, International Lending and Debt Problems, Short-term Debt, Collective Action Clause, International Bankruptcy Court,

This paper presents a theory of the maturity of international sovereign debt and derives its implications for the reform of the international financial architecture. It presents a general equilibrium model in which...

Emerging Markets Crisis

Emerging Markets Crisis »

Source: Emerging Markets Crisis : An Asset Markets Perspective

Volume/Issue: 1999/129

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Arvind Krishnamurthy , and Ricardo Caballero

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 1999

ISBN: 9781451855098

Keywords: Capital flows, fire sales, financial constraints, contractual and corporate governance problems, balance sheets, wasted collateral, domestic and foreign spreads, excessive leverage, collateral underprovision, real depreciation

The entire difference between a mild downturn and a devastating crisis is the occurrence of sharp fire sales of domestic assets and possibly foreign exchange and the ensuing collapse in the balance sheets of both t...

Financial Fragility and Economic Performance in Developing Economies

Financial Fragility and Economic Performance in Developing Economies »

Source: Financial Fragility and Economic Performance in Developing Economies : Do Capital Controls, Prudential Regulation and Supervision Matter?

Volume/Issue: 1999/66

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Marco Rossi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 1999

ISBN: 9781451848779

Keywords: Financial Crises, Capital Account Convertibility, Prudential Regulation, Supervision, Deposit Insurance, Economic Performance, banking, capital controls, capital account liberalization, capital inflows

Little empirical investigation exists of the links among capital account liberalization, prudential regulation and supervision, financial crises, and economic development, mainly because of the lack of comparable m...

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test »

Volume/Issue: 1998/154

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , and Andrew Berg

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 1998

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451857207.001

ISBN: 9781451857207

Keywords: Currency crises, vulnerability indicators, Asian crisis, balance of payments crises, crisis prediction, probability, probabilities, correlation, crisis index, predictions

This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been...

Currency Crises
			: In Search of Common Elements

Currency Crises : In Search of Common Elements »

Volume/Issue: 2000/67

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ranil Salgado , Jahangir Aziz , and Francesco Caramazza

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2000

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451848892.001

ISBN: 9781451848892

Keywords: Currency Crises, outliers, banking crises, standard deviations, standard deviation

The paper seeks to identify common characteristics among a variety of macroeconomic and financial variables for a large sample of currency crises in industrial countries and emerging market economies. It covers cri...

Debt Maturity and the International Financial Architecture

Debt Maturity and the International Financial Architecture »

Volume/Issue: 2004/137

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Olivier Jeanne

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2004

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451855944.001

ISBN: 9781451855944

Keywords: debt contract, international financial architecture, debt contracts, International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions, International Lending and Debt Problems, Short-term Debt, Collective Action Clause, International Bankruptcy Court,

This paper presents a theory of the maturity of international sovereign debt and derives its implications for the reform of the international financial architecture. It presents a general equilibrium model in which...

Emerging Markets Crisis
			: An Asset Markets Perspective

Emerging Markets Crisis : An Asset Markets Perspective »

Volume/Issue: 1999/129

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Arvind Krishnamurthy , and Ricardo Caballero

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 1999

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451855098.001

ISBN: 9781451855098

Keywords: Capital flows, fire sales, financial constraints, contractual and corporate governance problems, balance sheets, wasted collateral, domestic and foreign spreads, excessive leverage, collateral underprovision, real depreciation

The entire difference between a mild downturn and a devastating crisis is the occurrence of sharp fire sales of domestic assets and possibly foreign exchange and the ensuing collapse in the balance sheets of both t...

Rating the Rating Agencies
			: Anticipating Currency Crises or Debt Crises?

Rating the Rating Agencies : Anticipating Currency Crises or Debt Crises? »

Volume/Issue: 2003/122

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Amadou Sy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451854510.001

ISBN: 9781451854510

Keywords: Crisis, distress, early-warning systems, probability of default, ratings, currency crises, currency crisis, debt crises, bond, sovereign default

In contrast to the early-warning system literature, we find that currency and debt crises are not closely linked in emerging markets. We find that after 1994, credit ratings predict debt crises but fail to anticipa...