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Assessing Early Warning Systems

Assessing Early Warning Systems »

Source: Assessing Early Warning Systems : How Have they Worked in Practice?

Volume/Issue: 2004/52

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andrew Berg , Eduardo Borensztein , and Catherine Pattillo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2004

ISBN: 9781451847284

Keywords: vulnerability indicators, crisis prediction, forecasting accuracy, balance of payments crisis, probability, predictions, currency crisis, probabilities, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork...

Discriminating Contagion

Discriminating Contagion »

Source: Discriminating Contagion : An Alternative Explanation of Contagious Currency Crises in Emerging Markets

Volume/Issue: 2000/14

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Pavan Ahluwalia

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2000

ISBN: 9781451843118

Keywords: Contagion, currency crisis, balance-of-payments, exchange rate, speculative, currency crises, real exchange rate

This paper shows that a country’s vulnerability to contagious crises depends on the visible similarities between that country and other countries that are experiencing crises. A country is vulnerable to shif...

Do 'Flexible' Exchange Rates of Developing Countries Behave Like the Floating Exchange Rates of Industrialized Countries?

Do 'Flexible' Exchange Rates of Developing Countries Behave Like the Floating Exchange Rates of Industrialized Countries? »

Source: Do 'Flexible' Exchange Rates of Developing Countries Behave Like the Floating Exchange Rates of Industrialized Countries?

Volume/Issue: 2002/82

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Peter Wickham

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2002

ISBN: 9781451850451

Keywords: Flexible and floating exchange rates, exchange rate, exchange rates, statistics, statistic,

The paper examines the behavior of daily spot exchange rates for a sample of industrialized countries which are generally considered to be floating with only occasional official foreign exchange market intervention...

Exits From Pegged Regimes

Exits From Pegged Regimes »

Source: Exits From Pegged Regimes : An Empirical Analysis

Volume/Issue: 2003/147

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Inci Ötker , and Rupa Duttagupta

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2003

ISBN: 9781451856750

Keywords: Pegged exchange rates, floating regimes, determinants of exits, exchange rate, exchange rate regime, exchange rate regimes, trade openness, flexible exchange rate,

Using countries' de facto exchange rate regimes during 1985-2002, this paper analyzes the determinants of exits from pegged regimes, where exits involve shifts to more or less flexible regimes, or adjustments withi...

Assessing Early Warning Systems
			: How Have they Worked in Practice?

Assessing Early Warning Systems : How Have they Worked in Practice? »

Volume/Issue: 2004/52

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andrew Berg , Eduardo Borensztein , and Catherine Pattillo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2004

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451847284.001

ISBN: 9781451847284

Keywords: vulnerability indicators, crisis prediction, forecasting accuracy, balance of payments crisis, probability, predictions, currency crisis, probabilities, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork...

Discriminating Contagion
			: An Alternative Explanation of Contagious Currency Crises in Emerging Markets

Discriminating Contagion : An Alternative Explanation of Contagious Currency Crises in Emerging Markets »

Volume/Issue: 2000/14

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Pavan Ahluwalia

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2000

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451843118.001

ISBN: 9781451843118

Keywords: Contagion, currency crisis, balance-of-payments, exchange rate, speculative, currency crises, real exchange rate

This paper shows that a country’s vulnerability to contagious crises depends on the visible similarities between that country and other countries that are experiencing crises. A country is vulnerable to shif...

Do 'Flexible' Exchange Rates of Developing Countries Behave Like the Floating Exchange Rates of Industrialized Countries?

Do 'Flexible' Exchange Rates of Developing Countries Behave Like the Floating Exchange Rates of Industrialized Countries? »

Volume/Issue: 2002/82

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Peter Wickham

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2002

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451850451.001

ISBN: 9781451850451

Keywords: Flexible and floating exchange rates, exchange rate, exchange rates, statistics, statistic,

The paper examines the behavior of daily spot exchange rates for a sample of industrialized countries which are generally considered to be floating with only occasional official foreign exchange market intervention...

Exits From Pegged Regimes
			: An Empirical Analysis

Exits From Pegged Regimes : An Empirical Analysis »

Volume/Issue: 2003/147

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Inci Ötker , and Rupa Duttagupta

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451856750.001

ISBN: 9781451856750

Keywords: Pegged exchange rates, floating regimes, determinants of exits, exchange rate, exchange rate regime, exchange rate regimes, trade openness, flexible exchange rate,

Using countries' de facto exchange rate regimes during 1985-2002, this paper analyzes the determinants of exits from pegged regimes, where exits involve shifts to more or less flexible regimes, or adjustments withi...

Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes

Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes »

Volume/Issue: 2002/7

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): W. Perraudin , Manmohan Kumar , and Uma Moorthy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2002

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451842425.001

ISBN: 9781451842425

Keywords: emerging market crises, trading strategies, probability, exchange rate, probabilities, foreign exchange, forecasting

This paper assesses the extent to which crashes in emerging market currencies are predictable using simple logit models based on lagged macroeconomic and financial data. To evaluate our model, we calculate trading...

Saving Behavior in Low and Middle-Income Developing Countries
			: A Comparison

Saving Behavior in Low and Middle-Income Developing Countries : A Comparison »

Volume/Issue: 1995/3

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Masao Ogaki , Jonathan Ostry , and Carmen Reinhart

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 1995

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451841848.001

ISBN: 9781451841848

Keywords: real interest rates, cointegration, equation, real rate of interest, real interest rate

The impact of changes in real interest rates on saving and growth is a central issue in development economics. According to one familiar view, a financial liberalization program which increases real interest rates...