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Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test »

Source: Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Volume/Issue: 1998/154

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , and Andrew Berg

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 1998

ISBN: 9781451857207

Keywords: Currency crises, vulnerability indicators, Asian crisis, balance of payments crises, crisis prediction, probability, probabilities, correlation, crisis index, predictions

This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been...

Asian Financial Integration

Asian Financial Integration »

Source: Asian Financial Integration : Trends and Interruptions

Volume/Issue: 2011/4

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Eduardo Borensztein , and Prakash Loungani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2011

ISBN: 9781455211821

Keywords: equity premium, gravity model, home bias, risk-sharing, herding, investors, bond, foreign investors, bonds, international investors

The paper compares trends in financial integration within Asia with those in industrialized countries and other regional groups. Declines in cross-country dispersion in equity returns and interest rates suggest inc...

Assessing Early Warning Systems

Assessing Early Warning Systems »

Source: Assessing Early Warning Systems : How Have they Worked in Practice?

Volume/Issue: 2004/52

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andrew Berg , Eduardo Borensztein , and Catherine Pattillo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2004

ISBN: 9781451847284

Keywords: vulnerability indicators, crisis prediction, forecasting accuracy, balance of payments crisis, probability, predictions, currency crisis, probabilities, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork...

The Contingent Claims Approach to Corporate Vulnerability Analysis

The Contingent Claims Approach to Corporate Vulnerability Analysis »

Source: The Contingent Claims Approach to Corporate Vulnerability Analysis : Estimating Default Risk and Economy-Wide Risk Transfer

Volume/Issue: 2004/121

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yingbin Xiao , Dale Gray , Cheng Lim , and Michael Gapen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2004

ISBN: 9781451854411

Keywords: Contingent claims approach, Corporate sector vulnerability, financial sector, option pricing, capital markets, hedging, international capital markets, Contigent claims approach,

In this paper, we examine the ability of the contingent claims approach (CCA) to identify corporate sector and economy-wide vulnerabilities. We apply the Moody's MfRisk model, which uses aggregated CCA principles,...

Determinants of Private Capital Flows in the 1970's and 1990's

Determinants of Private Capital Flows in the 1970's and 1990's »

Source: Determinants of Private Capital Flows in the 1970's and 1990's : Is there Evidence of Contagion?

Volume/Issue: 2001/64

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rodrigo Valdes , Leonardo Hernández , and Pamela Melado

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2001

ISBN: 9781451848564

Keywords: contagion, capital flows, capital inflows, private capital flows, private capital

This paper studies the determinants of private capital flows to developing countries during the last two episodes of large inflows, the late 1970s-early 1980s and the 1990s. The paper also tests for contagion effec...

Discriminating Contagion

Discriminating Contagion »

Source: Discriminating Contagion : An Alternative Explanation of Contagious Currency Crises in Emerging Markets

Volume/Issue: 2000/14

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Pavan Ahluwalia

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2000

ISBN: 9781451843118

Keywords: Contagion, currency crisis, balance-of-payments, exchange rate, speculative, currency crises, real exchange rate

This paper shows that a country’s vulnerability to contagious crises depends on the visible similarities between that country and other countries that are experiencing crises. A country is vulnerable to shif...

Emerging Market Spread Compression

Emerging Market Spread Compression »

Source: Emerging Market Spread Compression : Is it Real or is it Liquidity?

Volume/Issue: 2008/10

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Laura Kodres , Kristian Hartelius , and Kenichiro Kashiwase

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2008

ISBN: 9781451868722

Keywords: Sovereign Spreads, Fundamentals, bond, bond spreads, market bond, emerging market bond, standard deviation,

Despite recent turmoil, spreads on emerging market countries' sovereign bonds have fallen dramatically since mid-2002. Some have attributed the fall to improved economic fundamentals while others to ample global li...

Foreign Participation in Emerging Markets’ Local Currency Bond Markets

Foreign Participation in Emerging Markets’ Local Currency Bond Markets »

Source: Foreign Participation in Emerging Markets' Local Currency Bond Markets

Volume/Issue: 2010/88

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Shanaka Peiris

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2010

ISBN: 9781451982602

Keywords: Emerging Market Economies, bond, bond yields, government bond, government bond yields,

This paper estimates the impact of foreign participation in determining long-term local currency government bond yields and volatility in a group of emerging markets from 2000-2009. The results of a panel data anal...

Global Market Conditions and Systemic Risk1

Global Market Conditions and Systemic Risk1 »

Source: Global Market Conditions and Systemic Risk

Volume/Issue: 2009/230

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo , and Heiko Hesse

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2009

ISBN: 9781451873771

Keywords: Global Financial Crises, Subprime Crisis, Volatility, Solvency, Markov-Switching, financial institutions, financial system, contagion, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy,

This paper examines several key global market conditions, such as a proxy for market uncertainty and measures of interbank funding stress, to assess financial volatility and the likelihood of crisis. Using Markov r...

Global Moral Hazard, Capital Account Liberalization and the 'Overlending Syndrome'

Global Moral Hazard, Capital Account Liberalization and the 'Overlending Syndrome' »

Source: Global Moral Hazard, Capital Account Liberalization and the 'Overlending Syndrome'

Volume/Issue: 1999/100

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Eduardo Levy Yeyati

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 1999

ISBN: 9781451852387

Keywords: Banking Crises, Capital Account Liberalization, Deposit Insurance, Moral Hazard, international capital, deposit rates, international capital markets

The removal of government guarantees in borrowing countries does not eliminate the moral hazard problem posed by the existence of deposit guarantees in lender countries. The paper shows that, after restrictions on...