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Are Business Cycles Different in Asia and Latin America?

Are Business Cycles Different in Asia and Latin America? »

Source: Are Business Cycles Different in Asia and Latin America?

Volume/Issue: 1997/9

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alexander Hoffmaister , and Jorge Roldos

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 1997

ISBN: 9781451927313

Keywords: exchange rate, real exchange rate, terms of trade, exchange rate fluctuations, nominal exchange rate

This paper compares business cycles in Asia and in Latin America using structural vector autoregression analysis with panel data. The evidence for countries in these regions suggests that (i) the main source of out...

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test »

Source: Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Volume/Issue: 1998/154

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , and Andrew Berg

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 1998

ISBN: 9781451857207

Keywords: Currency crises, vulnerability indicators, Asian crisis, balance of payments crises, crisis prediction, probability, probabilities, correlation, crisis index, predictions

This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been...

Asian Financial Integration

Asian Financial Integration »

Source: Asian Financial Integration : Trends and Interruptions

Volume/Issue: 2011/4

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Eduardo Borensztein , and Prakash Loungani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2011

ISBN: 9781455211821

Keywords: equity premium, gravity model, home bias, risk-sharing, herding, investors, bond, foreign investors, bonds, international investors

The paper compares trends in financial integration within Asia with those in industrialized countries and other regional groups. Declines in cross-country dispersion in equity returns and interest rates suggest inc...

Assessing Early Warning Systems

Assessing Early Warning Systems »

Source: Assessing Early Warning Systems : How Have they Worked in Practice?

Volume/Issue: 2004/52

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andrew Berg , Eduardo Borensztein , and Catherine Pattillo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2004

ISBN: 9781451847284

Keywords: vulnerability indicators, crisis prediction, forecasting accuracy, balance of payments crisis, probability, predictions, currency crisis, probabilities, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork...

The Asset Allocation of Emerging Market Mutual Funds

The Asset Allocation of Emerging Market Mutual Funds »

Source: The Asset Allocation of Emerging Market Mutual Funds

Volume/Issue: 2001/111

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Piti Disyatat , and R. Gelos

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2001

ISBN: 9781451853476

Keywords: asset allocation, portfolio choice, contagion, statistic, risk aversion, optimization, correlation, covariance,

Benchmark following and portfolio rebalancing effects have often been cited when trying to explain international financial contagion phenomena. Using a dataset containing the country allocation of individual dedica...

Can Foreign Exchange Intervention Stem Exchange Rate Pressures from Global Capital Flow Shocks?

Can Foreign Exchange Intervention Stem Exchange Rate Pressures from Global Capital Flow Shocks? »

Source: Can Foreign Exchange Intervention Stem Exchange Rate Pressures from Global Capital Flow Shocks?

Volume/Issue: 2015/159

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Olivier Blanchard , Gustavo Adler , and Irineu de Carvalho Filho

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 July 2015

ISBN: 9781513585840

Keywords: exchange rate, gross capital flows, exchange, market, General,

Many emerging market economies have relied on foreign exchange intervention (FXI) in response to gross capital inflows. In this paper, we study whether FXI has been an effective tool to dampen the effects of these...

Central Bank Credit to the Government

Central Bank Credit to the Government »

Source: Central Bank Credit to the Government : What Can We Learn From International Practices?

Volume/Issue: 2012/16

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Marcela Matamoros-Indorf , Mrinalini Sharma , Simon Townsend , and Luis Jácome

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2012

ISBN: 9781463931216

Keywords: lending to the government, international practices, central bank, inflation, government securities,

Using a central bank legislation database, this paper documents and analyzes worldwide institutional arrangements for central bank lending to the government and identifies international practices. Key findings are:...

Central Bank Losses and Experiences in Selected Countries

Central Bank Losses and Experiences in Selected Countries »

Source: Central Bank Losses and Experiences in Selected Countries

Volume/Issue: 2005/72

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Claudia Dziobek , and John Dalton

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2005

ISBN: 9781451860917

Keywords: central bank balance sheet, central bank losses, central bank, monetary fund, national bank, government securities, International Lending and Debt Problems,

Under normal circumstances, a central bank should be able to operate at a profit with a core level of earnings derived from seigniorage. Losses have, however, arisen in several central banks from a range of activit...

Collateral Damage

Collateral Damage »

Source: Collateral Damage : Exchange Controls and International Trade

Volume/Issue: 2007/8

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Zhiwei Zhang , and Shang-Jin Wei

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2007

ISBN: 9781451865721

Keywords: non-tariff barriers, exchange controls, foreign exchange, tariff barriers, International Factor Movements And International Business,

While new conventional wisdom warns that developing countries should be aware of the risks of premature capital account liberalization, the costs of not removing exchange controls have received much less attention....

The Contingent Claims Approach to Corporate Vulnerability Analysis

The Contingent Claims Approach to Corporate Vulnerability Analysis »

Source: The Contingent Claims Approach to Corporate Vulnerability Analysis : Estimating Default Risk and Economy-Wide Risk Transfer

Volume/Issue: 2004/121

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yingbin Xiao , Dale Gray , Cheng Lim , and Michael Gapen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2004

ISBN: 9781451854411

Keywords: Contingent claims approach, Corporate sector vulnerability, financial sector, option pricing, capital markets, hedging, international capital markets, Contigent claims approach,

In this paper, we examine the ability of the contingent claims approach (CCA) to identify corporate sector and economy-wide vulnerabilities. We apply the Moody's MfRisk model, which uses aggregated CCA principles,...