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World Economic Outlook, October 2018

Challenges to Steady Growth

Global growth for 2018-19 is projected to remain steady at its 2017 level, but its pace is less vigorous than projected in April and has become less balanced.

World Economic Outlook, October 2018

Challenges to Steady Growth

Global growth for 2018-19 is projected to remain steady at its 2017 level, but its pace is less vigorous than projected in April and has become less balanced.

Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies

Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2018/147

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Geraldine Dany-Knedlik , and Juan Angel Garcia

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 June 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484363041.001

ISBN: 9781484363041

Keywords: Inflation expectations, Monetary policy, Phillips curve, ASEAN countries, Time-Series Models, General

This paper investigates the evolution of inflation dynamics in the five largest ASEAN countries between 1997 and 2017. To account for changes in the monetary policy frameworks since the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC)...

Instruments, Investor Base, and Recent Developments in the Malaysian Government Bond Market

Instruments, Investor Base, and Recent Developments in the Malaysian Government Bond Market »

Volume/Issue: 2018/95

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yinqiu Lu , and Dmitry Yakovlev

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 April 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484353073.001

ISBN: 9781484353073

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, International financial markets, Malaysia, local currency government bonds; FX derivatives; Malaysia, local currency government bonds, FX derivatives, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, General

Foreign holdings of Malaysian local currency (LCY) government bonds have increased since the global financial crisis. By exploring the micro-level bank by bank and fund by fund data, we are able to shed light on th...

LAO P.D.R.: Assessing the Quality of Trade Statistics

LAO P.D.R.: Assessing the Quality of Trade Statistics »

Volume/Issue: 2017/251

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Geoffrey Bannister , Manuk Ghazanchyan , and Theodore Bikoi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484325742.001

ISBN: 9781484325742

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, External trade statictics, bilateral assymetries, trade partner data, imports and exports, customs data, General, Country and Industry Studies of Trade, Asia including Middle East, Factor and Product Markets

This paper assesses external trade statistics in Lao PDR by looking at mirror statistics, and with reference to international experience in compilation and dissemination of external trade data. We find that exports...

Bank Capital and Lending: An Extended Framework and Evidence of Nonlinearity

Bank Capital and Lending: An Extended Framework and Evidence of Nonlinearity »

Volume/Issue: 2017/252

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mario Catalan , Alexander Hoffmaister , and Cicilia Anggadewi Harun

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484325995.001

ISBN: 9781484325995

Keywords: Financial crises, Indonesia, Asia and Pacific, Bank capital; Bank lending; Financial shocks; Transmission mechanisms, Bank capital, Bank lending, Financial shocks, Transmission mechanisms, Government Policy and Regulation, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

This paper studies the transmission of bank capital shocks to loan supply in Indonesia. A series of theoretically founded dynamic panel data models are estimated and find nonlinear effects of capital on loan growth...

Assessing Corporate Vulnerabilities in Indonesia
			: A Bottom-Up Default Analysis

Assessing Corporate Vulnerabilities in Indonesia : A Bottom-Up Default Analysis »

Volume/Issue: 2017/97

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jorge Chan-Lau , Weimin Miao , Ken Miyajima , and Jongsoon Shin

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 April 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475595130.001

ISBN: 9781475595130

Keywords: Indonesia, Corporate sector, Asia and Pacific, bottom-up default analysis, default risk, scenario analysis, simulation, hazard rate models, Model Evaluation and Testing, General

Under adverse macroeconomic conditions, the potential realization of corporate sector vulnerabilities could pose major risks to the economy. This paper assesses corporate vulnerabilities in Indonesia by using a Bot...

Identifying Structural Reform Gaps in Emerging Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia

Identifying Structural Reform Gaps in Emerging Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia »

Volume/Issue: 2017/82

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Norbert Funke , Asel Isakova , and Maksym Ivanyna

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 March 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475590616.001

ISBN: 9781475590616

Keywords: Central Asia, structural reforms, CESEE, Caucasus, reform gaps, General, Institutions and the Macroeconomy, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

Using data from the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report as an example, this paper compares structural indicators for 25 countries in Emerging Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia with a generic c...

Collect More, Spend Better
			: Public Investment in Asian Frontier Markets

Collect More, Spend Better : Public Investment in Asian Frontier Markets »

Volume/Issue: 2017/10

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Manuk Ghazanchyan , Ricardo Marto , Jiri Jonas , and Kaitlyn Douglass

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475570892.001

ISBN: 9781475570892

Keywords: Southeast Asia, Sri Lanka, Tax collection, Vietnam, Capital expenditure, Public investment, Fiscal policy, Emerging markets, Cambodia, Debt sustainability

We use a dynamic small open economy model to explore the macroeconomic impact of alternative public investment scaling-up scenarios, analyzing how improving the efficiency of capital spending and of tax revenue col...

Automatic Adjustment Mechanisms in Asian Pension Systems?

Automatic Adjustment Mechanisms in Asian Pension Systems? »

Volume/Issue: 2016/242

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Elif Arbatli , Csaba Feher , Jack Ree , Ikuo Saito , and Mauricio Soto

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 December 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475560336.001

ISBN: 9781475560336

Keywords: Pensions, Pension reforms, Japan, Korea, Republic of, China, People's Republic of, China, Asia and Pacific, Asia, Retirement, Pension System Reform

Automatic adjustment mechanisms (AAMs)-rules ensuring that certain characteristics of a pension system respond to demographic, macroeconomic and financial developments, in a predetermined fashion and without the ne...

When China Sneezes Does ASEAN Catch a Cold?

When China Sneezes Does ASEAN Catch a Cold? »

Volume/Issue: 2016/214

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sohrab Rafiq

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 November 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475552607.001

ISBN: 9781475552607

Keywords: Cambodia, Cambodia, China, Cross country analysis, Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Emerging markets, Economic integration, Economic growth, Philippines, Indonesia

This paper looks at the effects of a China slowdown on Emerging Market Economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand) and Frontier Developing Economies (Cambodia, Lao P.D.R., and Vietnam) in ASEAN. The main finding...

Regional Economic Outlook, October 2016, Middle East and Central Asia

Regional Economic Outlook, October 2016, Middle East and Central Asia »

Series: Regional Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 October 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513534497.086

ISBN: 9781513534497

Keywords: cheaper oil, global spillovers, China’;s rebalancing, fiscal deficits

This issue focuses on the ongoing adjustment to cheaper oil and subdued economic activity for oil-producing countries, as well as the weak and fragile recovery in the Caucasus and Central Asia region. It also discu...