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Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises

Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises »

Volume/Issue: 2003/221

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Axel Schimmelpfennig , Nouriel Roubini , and Paolo Manasse

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451875256.001

ISBN: 9781451875256

Keywords: Early-warning system, sovereign debt crises, sovereign default, debt crisis, external debt, debt crises, short-term debt, currency crisis, General Outlook and Conditions, Forecasting and Other Model Applications

We develop an early-warning model of sovereign debt crises. A country is defined to be in a debt crisis if it is classified as being in default by Standard & Poor's, or if it has access to nonconcessional IMF finan...

Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises

Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises »

Source: Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises

Volume/Issue: 2003/221

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Axel Schimmelpfennig , Nouriel Roubini , and Paolo Manasse

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2003

ISBN: 9781451875256

Keywords: Early-warning system, sovereign debt crises, sovereign default, debt crisis, external debt, debt crises, short-term debt, currency crisis, General Outlook and Conditions, Forecasting and Other Model Applications

We develop an early-warning model of sovereign debt crises. A country is defined to be in a debt crisis if it is classified as being in default by Standard & Poor's, or if it has access to nonconcessional IMF finan...

Rating the Rating Agencies
			: Anticipating Currency Crises or Debt Crises?

Rating the Rating Agencies : Anticipating Currency Crises or Debt Crises? »

Volume/Issue: 2003/122

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Amadou Sy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451854510.001

ISBN: 9781451854510

Keywords: Crisis, distress, early-warning systems, probability of default, ratings, currency crises, currency crisis, debt crises, bond, sovereign default

In contrast to the early-warning system literature, we find that currency and debt crises are not closely linked in emerging markets. We find that after 1994, credit ratings predict debt crises but fail to anticipa...

Rating the Rating Agencies

Rating the Rating Agencies »

Source: Rating the Rating Agencies : Anticipating Currency Crises or Debt Crises?

Volume/Issue: 2003/122

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Amadou Sy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2003

ISBN: 9781451854510

Keywords: Crisis, distress, early-warning systems, probability of default, ratings, currency crises, currency crisis, debt crises, bond, sovereign default

In contrast to the early-warning system literature, we find that currency and debt crises are not closely linked in emerging markets. We find that after 1994, credit ratings predict debt crises but fail to anticipa...

Currency Crises

Currency Crises »

Source: Currency Crises : In Search of Common Elements

Volume/Issue: 2000/67

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ranil Salgado , Jahangir Aziz , and Francesco Caramazza

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2000

ISBN: 9781451848892

Keywords: Currency Crises, outliers, banking crises, standard deviations, standard deviation

The paper seeks to identify common characteristics among a variety of macroeconomic and financial variables for a large sample of currency crises in industrial countries and emerging market economies. It covers cri...

Currency Crises
			: In Search of Common Elements

Currency Crises : In Search of Common Elements »

Volume/Issue: 2000/67

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ranil Salgado , Jahangir Aziz , and Francesco Caramazza

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2000

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451848892.001

ISBN: 9781451848892

Keywords: Currency Crises, outliers, banking crises, standard deviations, standard deviation

The paper seeks to identify common characteristics among a variety of macroeconomic and financial variables for a large sample of currency crises in industrial countries and emerging market economies. It covers cri...

Linkages Between Financial Variables, Financial Sector Reform and Economic Growth and Efficiency

Linkages Between Financial Variables, Financial Sector Reform and Economic Growth and Efficiency »

Volume/Issue: 1995/103

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): R. Johnston , and Ceyla Pazarbasioglu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 1995

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451948110.001

ISBN: 9781451948110

Keywords: financial sector, financial reforms, crisis countries, financial intermediation, financial crisis

This paper analyzes the different channels through which financial variables and financial sector reform can affect economic growth and efficiency, using panel data for 40 countries which reformed their financial s...

Linkages Between Financial Variables, Financial Sector Reform and Economic Growth and Efficiency

Linkages Between Financial Variables, Financial Sector Reform and Economic Growth and Efficiency »

Source: Linkages Between Financial Variables, Financial Sector Reform and Economic Growth and Efficiency

Volume/Issue: 1995/103

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): R. Johnston , and Ceyla Pazarbasioglu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 1995

ISBN: 9781451948110

Keywords: financial sector, financial reforms, crisis countries, financial intermediation, financial crisis

This paper analyzes the different channels through which financial variables and financial sector reform can affect economic growth and efficiency, using panel data for 40 countries which reformed their financial s...

Poverty Alleviation in a Financial Programming Framework
			: An Integrated Approach

Poverty Alleviation in a Financial Programming Framework : An Integrated Approach »

Volume/Issue: 1995/29

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sheetal Chand , and Parthasarathi Shome

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 1995

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451844740.001

ISBN: 9781451844740

Keywords: poverty line, financial programming, balance of payments, financial programming model, poverty alleviation

Poverty alleviation is typically addressed in financial programming through additive programs that target vulnerable groups but without modifying the underlying stabilization and adjustment targets. Instead, this p...

Poverty Alleviation in a Financial Programming Framework

Poverty Alleviation in a Financial Programming Framework »

Source: Poverty Alleviation in a Financial Programming Framework : An Integrated Approach

Volume/Issue: 1995/29

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sheetal Chand , and Parthasarathi Shome

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 1995

ISBN: 9781451844740

Keywords: poverty line, financial programming, balance of payments, financial programming model, poverty alleviation

Poverty alleviation is typically addressed in financial programming through additive programs that target vulnerable groups but without modifying the underlying stabilization and adjustment targets. Instead, this p...