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Regional Economic Outlook, May 2018, Europe

Managing the Upswing in Uncertain Times

The Spring EUR REO projects the economic outlook for the region for the next six months.

The Challenge of Public Pension Reform in Advanced and Emerging Economies

The Challenge of Public Pension Reform in Advanced and Emerging Economies »

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Benedict Clements , David Coady , Frank Eich , Sanjeev Gupta , Alvar Kangur , Baoping Shang , and Mauricio Soto

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 January 2016

Language: Chinese

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9787504979971.084

ISBN: 9787504979971

Keywords: Pension reforms, Developed countries, Emerging markets, Pensions, Government expenditures, Cross country analysis, emerging market economies, retirement, pensions, pension spending

Pension reform is high on the policy agenda of many advanced and emerging market economies. In advanced economies the challenge is generally to contain future increases in public pension spending as the population...

Does Basel Compliance Matter for Bank Performance?

Does Basel Compliance Matter for Bank Performance? »

Volume/Issue: 2015/100

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rym Ayadi , Sami Ben Naceur , Barbara Casu , and Barry Quinn

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 May 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475580389.001

ISBN: 9781475580389

Keywords: BCP, Efficiency, Regulatory Compliance, bank, bank performance, interest, banking, Truncated and Censored Models, Government Policy and Regulation,

The global financial crisis underscored the importance of regulation and supervision to a well-functioning banking system that efficiently channels financial resources into investment. In this paper, we contribute...

Soft Power and Exchange Rate Volatility

Soft Power and Exchange Rate Volatility »

Volume/Issue: 2015/63

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Serhan Cevik , Richard Harris , and Fatih Yilmaz

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 March 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475530520.001

ISBN: 9781475530520

Keywords: Exchange rate volatility, exchange, exchange rate, volatility, exchange rates, trade, Time-Series Models, International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions,

Standard models-based exclusively on macro-financial variables-have made little progress in explaining the behavior of exchange rates. In this paper, we introduce a neglected set of 'soft power' factors capturing...

Growth Forecast Errors and  Fiscal Multipliers

Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers »

Volume/Issue: 2013/1

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Olivier Blanchard , and Daniel Leigh

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 January 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475576443.001

ISBN: 9781475576443

Keywords: government expenditure, output fluctuations, fiscal consolidation, fiscal multipliers, growth forecast, fiscal balance, General, General, Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits

This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated...

La eficacia de los controles de capital y las políticas prudenciales en la gestión de la afluencia masiva de capitales

La eficacia de los controles de capital y las políticas prudenciales en la gestión de la afluencia masiva de capitales »

Volume/Issue: 2011/14

Series: Staff Discussion Notes

Author(s): Karl Habermeier , Annamaria Kokenyne , and Chikako Baba

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 August 2011

Language: Spanish

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484334577.006

ISBN: 9781484334577

Keywords: Capital controls, Capital inflows, Exchange rate appreciation, Credit expansion, Macroprudential Policy, Risk management, Emerging markets, Cross country analysis, regulación financiera, políticas macroprudenciales

En la serie de Documentos de Análisis del Personal Técnico del FMI se presentan los últimos análisis e investigaciones sobre políticas elaborados por miembros del personal técnico del FMI, que se publican para reci...

Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation

Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation »

Volume/Issue: 2010/178

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christopher Crowe

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455201891.001

ISBN: 9781455201891

Keywords: Consensus Forecasts, Information Aggregation, Forecast Efficiency, efficiency, forecast horizons, forecast errors, forecast horizon, forecast error, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation,

Consensus forecasts are inefficient, over-weighting older information already in the public domain at the expense of new private information, when individual forecasters have different information sets. Using a cro...

Economic Transition and Health Care Reform
			: The Experience of Europe and Central Asia

Economic Transition and Health Care Reform : The Experience of Europe and Central Asia »

Volume/Issue: 2010/75

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Adam Leive

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451982183.001

ISBN: 9781451982183

Keywords: Health care reform, public health expenditure, primary care, health systems, health insurance, public health, fee-for-service, National Government Expenditures and Health, Health: General,

Economic Transition and Health Care Reform: The Experience of Europe and Central Asia...

Balance of Payments Statistics Yearbook, 2009

Balance of Payments Statistics Yearbook, 2009 »

Series: Balance of Payments Statistics

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 December 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781589068728.044

ISBN: 9781589068728

Keywords: liabilities, debt, portfolio investment, loans, financial derivatives, equity securities, money market, money market instruments, debt securities, bonds

The BOPS Yearbook, usually published in December, contains balance of payments statistics for most of the world, compiled in accordance with the IMF's Balance of Payments Manual. Part 1 includes aggregate as well a...

How Does Public External Debt Affect Corporate Borrowing Costs In Emerging Markets?

How Does Public External Debt Affect Corporate Borrowing Costs In Emerging Markets? »

Volume/Issue: 2009/266

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Oya Celasun , and Senay Agca

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451874112.001

ISBN: 9781451874112

Keywords: syndicated loans, yield spreads, creditor rights, public external debt, bond, external public debt,

Using data on syndicated loan issuances by emerging market firms, we find that an increase in the external debt of emerging market governments significantly raises the borrowing costs of the domestic corporate sect...

The Role of the Exchange Rate in Inflation-Targeting Emerging Economies
			: Targeting Emerging Economies

The Role of the Exchange Rate in Inflation-Targeting Emerging Economies : Targeting Emerging Economies »

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Anna Nordstrom , Scott Roger , Mark Stone , Seiichi Shimizu , Turgut Kisinbay , and Jorge Restrepo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 November 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781589067967.084

ISBN: 9781589067967

Keywords: Developing countries, Central bank role, Emerging markets, Exchange rates, Inflation targeting, exchange rate, foreign exchange, inflation, monetary policy

This paper explores the role of exchange rates in emerging economies with inflation-targeting regimes, an issue that has become especially germane during the current episode of financial turmoil and volatile capita...