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Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems
			: The Role of Early Warning Systems

Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems : The Role of Early Warning Systems »

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , Andrew Berg , Gian Milesi-Ferretti , and Eduardo Borensztein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2000

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781557758286.084

ISBN: 9781557758286

Keywords: currency crises, probability, balance of payments, contagion, currency crisis

Recent years have witnessed an increase in the frequency of currency and balance of payments crises in developing countries. More important, the crises have become more virulent, have caused widespread disruption t...

Back Matter

Back Matter »

Source: Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems : The Role of Early Warning Systems

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , Andrew Berg , Gian Milesi-Ferretti , and Eduardo Borensztein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2000

ISBN: 9781557758286

Keywords: currency crises, probability, balance of payments, contagion, currency crisis

Recent years have witnessed an increase in the frequency of currency and balance of payments crises in developing countries. More important, the crises have become more virulent, have caused widespread disruption t...

Front Matter

Front Matter »

Source: Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems : The Role of Early Warning Systems

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , Andrew Berg , Gian Milesi-Ferretti , and Eduardo Borensztein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2000

ISBN: 9781557758286

Keywords: currency crises, probability, balance of payments, contagion, currency crisis

Recent years have witnessed an increase in the frequency of currency and balance of payments crises in developing countries. More important, the crises have become more virulent, have caused widespread disruption t...

I Overview

I Overview »

Source: Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems : The Role of Early Warning Systems

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , Andrew Berg , Gian Milesi-Ferretti , and Eduardo Borensztein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2000

ISBN: 9781557758286

Keywords: currency crises, probability, balance of payments, contagion, currency crisis

1...

II What Causes Balance of Payments Crises?

II What Causes Balance of Payments Crises? »

Source: Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems : The Role of Early Warning Systems

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , Andrew Berg , Gian Milesi-Ferretti , and Eduardo Borensztein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2000

ISBN: 9781557758286

Keywords: currency crises, probability, balance of payments, contagion, currency crisis

The sudden collapse of exchange rate pegs in the absence of an immediate major change in economic fundamentals can seem a clear proof of irrationality in foreign exchange markets. An important contribution o...

III Issues in the Design of Early Warning Systems

III Issues in the Design of Early Warning Systems »

Source: Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems : The Role of Early Warning Systems

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , Andrew Berg , Gian Milesi-Ferretti , and Eduardo Borensztein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2000

ISBN: 9781557758286

Keywords: currency crises, probability, balance of payments, contagion, currency crisis

13 are systematic methods for the important first stages of “looking at the data.” A prominent example is International Monetary Fund (1998), which studies currency...

IV How Well Do the Models Perform?

IV How Well Do the Models Perform? »

Source: Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems : The Role of Early Warning Systems

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , Andrew Berg , Gian Milesi-Ferretti , and Eduardo Borensztein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2000

ISBN: 9781557758286

Keywords: currency crises, probability, balance of payments, contagion, currency crisis

23 There is an important danger in focusing on this type of evaluation as it may overestimate the ability of the models to predict future crises. The implementation...

V The Implementation of an Early Warning System

V The Implementation of an Early Warning System »

Source: Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems : The Role of Early Warning Systems

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , Andrew Berg , Gian Milesi-Ferretti , and Eduardo Borensztein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2000

ISBN: 9781557758286

Keywords: currency crises, probability, balance of payments, contagion, currency crisis

While there has been a recent flurry of research on the prediction of currency crises, it is clear that more work needs to be done to better understand their causes and more successfully predict them. The em...