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Are Business Cycles Different in Asia and Latin America?

Are Business Cycles Different in Asia and Latin America? »

Source: Are Business Cycles Different in Asia and Latin America?

Volume/Issue: 1997/9

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alexander Hoffmaister , and Jorge Roldos

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 1997

ISBN: 9781451927313

Keywords: exchange rate, real exchange rate, terms of trade, exchange rate fluctuations, nominal exchange rate

This paper compares business cycles in Asia and in Latin America using structural vector autoregression analysis with panel data. The evidence for countries in these regions suggests that (i) the main source of out...

Are Currency Crises Predictable?1

Are Currency Crises Predictable?1 »

Source: Are Currency Crises Predictable?

Volume/Issue: 1997/159

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rodrigo Valdes , and Ilan Goldfajn

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 1997

ISBN: 9781451857634

Keywords: exchange rate, overvaluation, real exchange rate, currency crises, nominal exchange rate

This paper studies whether exchange rate expectations and overvaluations are predictors of currency crises. The results suggest that overvaluation has predictive power in explaining crises. However, although expect...

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test »

Source: IMF Staff papers, Volume 46 No. 2

Volume: 46

Series: IMF Staff Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 1999

ISBN: 9781451974201

Keywords: exchange rate, real exchange, real exchange rate, current account, international monetary fund

This paper analyzes the predictability of currency crises. The paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. Two of the models failed to provide useful forecasts. One m...

L'art difficile de prévoir les crises économiques

L'art difficile de prévoir les crises économiques »

Series: Economic Issues

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , and Andrew Berg

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 February 2001

Language: French

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781557758859.051

ISBN: 9781557758859

Keywords: early warning, warning system, early warning system, financial markets, currency crises, international reserves, international financial markets, overvaluation, financial institutions, real exchange rate overvaluation

The integration of financial markets around the world over the past decade has posed new challenges for policymakers. The speed with which money can be switched in and out of currencies and countries has increased...

Countries’ Repayment Performance Vis-à-Vis the IMF

Countries’ Repayment Performance Vis-à-Vis the IMF »

Source: IMF Staff papers, Volume 46 No. 2

Volume: 46

Series: IMF Staff Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 1999

ISBN: 9781451974201

Keywords: exchange rate, real exchange, real exchange rate, current account, international monetary fund

This paper analyzes the predictability of currency crises. The paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. Two of the models failed to provide useful forecasts. One m...

Countries’ Repayment Performance Vis-àVis the IMF

Countries’ Repayment Performance Vis-àVis the IMF »

Source: IMF Staff papers, Volume 46 No. 2

Volume: 46

Series: IMF Staff Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 1999

ISBN: 9781451974201

Keywords: exchange rate, real exchange, real exchange rate, current account, international monetary fund

This paper analyzes the predictability of currency crises. The paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. Two of the models failed to provide useful forecasts. One m...

Discriminating Contagion

Discriminating Contagion »

Source: Discriminating Contagion : An Alternative Explanation of Contagious Currency Crises in Emerging Markets

Volume/Issue: 2000/14

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Pavan Ahluwalia

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2000

ISBN: 9781451843118

Keywords: Contagion, currency crisis, balance-of-payments, exchange rate, speculative, currency crises, real exchange rate

This paper shows that a country’s vulnerability to contagious crises depends on the visible similarities between that country and other countries that are experiencing crises. A country is vulnerable to shif...

East Asian Growth Before and After the Crisis

East Asian Growth Before and After the Crisis »

Source: IMF Staff papers, Volume 46 No. 2

Volume: 46

Series: IMF Staff Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 1999

ISBN: 9781451974201

Keywords: exchange rate, real exchange, real exchange rate, current account, international monetary fund

This paper analyzes the predictability of currency crises. The paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. Two of the models failed to provide useful forecasts. One m...

Financial Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis

Financial Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis »

Source: IMF Staff papers, Volume 46 No. 2

Volume: 46

Series: IMF Staff Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 1999

ISBN: 9781451974201

Keywords: exchange rate, real exchange, real exchange rate, current account, international monetary fund

This paper analyzes the predictability of currency crises. The paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. Two of the models failed to provide useful forecasts. One m...

Are Business Cycles Different in Asia and Latin America?

Are Business Cycles Different in Asia and Latin America? »

Volume/Issue: 1997/9

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alexander Hoffmaister , and Jorge Roldos

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 1997

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451927313.001

ISBN: 9781451927313

Keywords: exchange rate, real exchange rate, terms of trade, exchange rate fluctuations, nominal exchange rate

This paper compares business cycles in Asia and in Latin America using structural vector autoregression analysis with panel data. The evidence for countries in these regions suggests that (i) the main source of out...