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Assessing Early Warning Systems

Assessing Early Warning Systems »

Source: Assessing Early Warning Systems : How Have they Worked in Practice?

Volume/Issue: 2004/52

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andrew Berg , Eduardo Borensztein , and Catherine Pattillo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2004

ISBN: 9781451847284

Keywords: vulnerability indicators, crisis prediction, forecasting accuracy, balance of payments crisis, probability, predictions, currency crisis, probabilities, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork...

Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies

Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies »

Source: Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies : A Comparative Empirical Treatment

Volume/Issue: 2005/13

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Thomson Fontaine

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2005

ISBN: 9781451860320

Keywords: exchange rate, contagion, currency crisis, fixed exchange rate, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper takes a step in empirically testing the implications of a number of theoretical models that attempt to highlight the dynamics behind currency crises. By focusing on countries with broadly disparate econo...

Current Account Rebalancing and Real Exchange Rate Adjustment Between the U.S. and Emerging Asia1

Current Account Rebalancing and Real Exchange Rate Adjustment Between the U.S. and Emerging Asia1 »

Source: Current Account Rebalancing and Real Exchange Rate Adjustment Between the U.S. and Emerging Asia

Volume/Issue: 2011/46

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Damiano Sandri , Pau Rabanal , and Isabelle Mejean

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2011

ISBN: 9781455218967

Keywords: Rebalancing, Intermediate Inputs, terms of trade, tradable goods, exchange rate, export prices, Open Economy Macroeconomics, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

A reduction in the U.S. current account deficit vis-à-vis emerging Asia involves a shift in demand from U.S. to emerging Asia tradable goods and a change in international relative prices. This paper quantifies the...

Early Warning Systems

Early Warning Systems »

Source: Early Warning Systems : A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach

Volume/Issue: 2003/32

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Abdul Abiad

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2003

ISBN: 9781451845136

Keywords: Currency crisis, early warning system, regime switching, Markov switching, probability, probabilities, currency crises, asian crisis, contagion, Forecasting and Other Model Applications

Previous early-warning systems (EWSs) for currency crises have relied on models that require a priori dating of crises. This paper proposes an alternative EWS, based on a Markov-switching model, which identifies an...

Emerging Asia's Impact on Australian Growth

Emerging Asia's Impact on Australian Growth »

Source: Emerging Asia's Impact on Australian Growth : Some Insights From GEM

Volume/Issue: 2010/262

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Benjamin Hunt

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2010

ISBN: 9781455210695

Keywords: Emerging Asia, Productivity Growth, Rebalancing, exchange rates, exchange rate, real exchange rates, tradable goods, Economic Growth of Open Economies, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation, One

Over the last decade, GDP growth in emerging Asia was roughly twice as fast as average world growth. The IMF's Global Economy Model (GEM) is used to estimate the impact that emerging Asia's growth differential has...

Assessing Early Warning Systems
			: How Have they Worked in Practice?

Assessing Early Warning Systems : How Have they Worked in Practice? »

Volume/Issue: 2004/52

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andrew Berg , Eduardo Borensztein , and Catherine Pattillo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2004

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451847284.001

ISBN: 9781451847284

Keywords: vulnerability indicators, crisis prediction, forecasting accuracy, balance of payments crisis, probability, predictions, currency crisis, probabilities, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork...

Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies
			: A Comparative Empirical Treatment

Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies : A Comparative Empirical Treatment »

Volume/Issue: 2005/13

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Thomson Fontaine

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2005

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451860320.001

ISBN: 9781451860320

Keywords: exchange rate, contagion, currency crisis, fixed exchange rate, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper takes a step in empirically testing the implications of a number of theoretical models that attempt to highlight the dynamics behind currency crises. By focusing on countries with broadly disparate econo...

Current Account Rebalancing and Real Exchange Rate Adjustment Between the U.S. and Emerging Asia

Current Account Rebalancing and Real Exchange Rate Adjustment Between the U.S. and Emerging Asia »

Volume/Issue: 2011/46

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Damiano Sandri , Pau Rabanal , and Isabelle Mejean

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455218967.001

ISBN: 9781455218967

Keywords: Rebalancing, Intermediate Inputs, terms of trade, tradable goods, exchange rate, export prices, Open Economy Macroeconomics, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

A reduction in the U.S. current account deficit vis-à-vis emerging Asia involves a shift in demand from U.S. to emerging Asia tradable goods and a change in international relative prices. This paper quantifies the...

Early Warning Systems
			: A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach

Early Warning Systems : A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach »

Volume/Issue: 2003/32

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Abdul Abiad

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451845136.001

ISBN: 9781451845136

Keywords: Currency crisis, early warning system, regime switching, Markov switching, probability, probabilities, currency crises, asian crisis, contagion, Forecasting and Other Model Applications

Previous early-warning systems (EWSs) for currency crises have relied on models that require a priori dating of crises. This paper proposes an alternative EWS, based on a Markov-switching model, which identifies an...

Emerging Asia's Impact on Australian Growth
			: Some Insights From GEM

Emerging Asia's Impact on Australian Growth : Some Insights From GEM »

Volume/Issue: 2010/262

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Benjamin Hunt

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455210695.001

ISBN: 9781455210695

Keywords: Emerging Asia, Productivity Growth, Rebalancing, exchange rates, exchange rate, real exchange rates, tradable goods, Economic Growth of Open Economies, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation, One

Over the last decade, GDP growth in emerging Asia was roughly twice as fast as average world growth. The IMF's Global Economy Model (GEM) is used to estimate the impact that emerging Asia's growth differential has...