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Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test »

Source: Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Volume/Issue: 1998/154

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , and Andrew Berg

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 1998

ISBN: 9781451857207

Keywords: Currency crises, vulnerability indicators, Asian crisis, balance of payments crises, crisis prediction, probability, probabilities, correlation, crisis index, predictions

This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been...

The Asia Crisis

The Asia Crisis »

Source: The Asia Crisis : Causes, Policy Responses, and Outcomes

Volume/Issue: 1999/138

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andrew Berg

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 1999

ISBN: 9781451855968

Keywords: Asia crisis, interest rates and exchange rates, currency crises, balance of payments crises, exchange rate, banking, banking system, exchange rates, foreign exchange

This paper tells the story of the Asian financial crisis by addressing four questions: What were the causes of the crisis, how did the crisis unfold, what were the policy responses, and what have been the outcomes?...

Assessing Early Warning Systems

Assessing Early Warning Systems »

Source: Assessing Early Warning Systems : How Have they Worked in Practice?

Volume/Issue: 2004/52

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andrew Berg , Eduardo Borensztein , and Catherine Pattillo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2004

ISBN: 9781451847284

Keywords: vulnerability indicators, crisis prediction, forecasting accuracy, balance of payments crisis, probability, predictions, currency crisis, probabilities, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork...

Discriminating Contagion

Discriminating Contagion »

Source: Discriminating Contagion : An Alternative Explanation of Contagious Currency Crises in Emerging Markets

Volume/Issue: 2000/14

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Pavan Ahluwalia

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2000

ISBN: 9781451843118

Keywords: Contagion, currency crisis, balance-of-payments, exchange rate, speculative, currency crises, real exchange rate

This paper shows that a country’s vulnerability to contagious crises depends on the visible similarities between that country and other countries that are experiencing crises. A country is vulnerable to shif...

The Growth Comeback in Developing Economies

The Growth Comeback in Developing Economies »

Source: The Growth Comeback in Developing Economies : A New Hope or Back to the Future?

Volume/Issue: 2013/132

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): John Bluedorn , Rupa Duttagupta , Jaime Guajardo , and Nkunde Mwase

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 May 2013

ISBN: 9781484321980

Keywords: growth, takeoff, low-income countries, convergence, export growth, balance of payments, trade openness, regulatory barriers, economic cooperation, General

Growth takeoffs in developing economies have rebounded in the past two decades. Although recent takeoffs have lasted longer than takeoffs before the 1990s, a key question is whether they could unravel like some did...

The IMF Approach to Economic Stabilization

The IMF Approach to Economic Stabilization »

Source: The IMF Approach to Economic Stabilization

Volume/Issue: 1999/104

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Miguel Savastano , and Michael Mussa

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 1999

ISBN: 9781451852745

Keywords: IMF-supported programs, quantitative approach, monetary fund, monetary policy, balance of payments, central bank, external financing

This paper explains the IMF approach to economic stabilization. It argues that a Fund-supported program is a process, comprising six broadly defined phases, that evolves along a multiplicity of potential pathways....

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test »

Volume/Issue: 1998/154

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , and Andrew Berg

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 1998

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451857207.001

ISBN: 9781451857207

Keywords: Currency crises, vulnerability indicators, Asian crisis, balance of payments crises, crisis prediction, probability, probabilities, correlation, crisis index, predictions

This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been...

Assessing Early Warning Systems
			: How Have they Worked in Practice?

Assessing Early Warning Systems : How Have they Worked in Practice? »

Volume/Issue: 2004/52

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andrew Berg , Eduardo Borensztein , and Catherine Pattillo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2004

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451847284.001

ISBN: 9781451847284

Keywords: vulnerability indicators, crisis prediction, forecasting accuracy, balance of payments crisis, probability, predictions, currency crisis, probabilities, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork...

Discriminating Contagion
			: An Alternative Explanation of Contagious Currency Crises in Emerging Markets

Discriminating Contagion : An Alternative Explanation of Contagious Currency Crises in Emerging Markets »

Volume/Issue: 2000/14

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Pavan Ahluwalia

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2000

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451843118.001

ISBN: 9781451843118

Keywords: Contagion, currency crisis, balance-of-payments, exchange rate, speculative, currency crises, real exchange rate

This paper shows that a country’s vulnerability to contagious crises depends on the visible similarities between that country and other countries that are experiencing crises. A country is vulnerable to shif...

International Reserve Trends in the South Caucasus and Central Asia Region

International Reserve Trends in the South Caucasus and Central Asia Region »

Volume/Issue: 2008/41

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Holger Floerkemeier , and Mariusz Sumlinski

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451869033.001

ISBN: 9781451869033

Keywords: Balance of Payments Crises, reserve holdings, capital markets, international capital markets, risk aversion, international capital,

In recent years, the South Caucasus and Central Asia countries (CCA-6) have received significant foreign exchange inflows. While a healthy reserve buffer is desirable to selfinsure against external crises, holding...