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Policy Responses to External Imbalances in Emerging Market Economies
			: Further Empirical Results

Policy Responses to External Imbalances in Emerging Market Economies : Further Empirical Results »

Volume/Issue: 1998/103

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Luis Carranza , and Chorng-Huey Wong

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 1998

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451948189.001

ISBN: 9781451948189

Keywords: capital inflows, emerging market economies, external imbalances, policy designs, causality test, current account, capital account, current account balance, current account deficits

A bivariate vector-autoregression (VAR) model is used to test causal relations between the current account and the capital account in four emerging market economies. The results show that high capital mobility coul...

Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes

Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes »

Volume/Issue: 2002/7

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): W. Perraudin , Manmohan Kumar , and Uma Moorthy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2002

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451842425.001

ISBN: 9781451842425

Keywords: emerging market crises, trading strategies, probability, exchange rate, probabilities, foreign exchange, forecasting

This paper assesses the extent to which crashes in emerging market currencies are predictable using simple logit models based on lagged macroeconomic and financial data. To evaluate our model, we calculate trading...

Policy Responses to External Imbalances in Emerging Market Economies

Policy Responses to External Imbalances in Emerging Market Economies »

Source: Policy Responses to External Imbalances in Emerging Market Economies : Further Empirical Results

Volume/Issue: 1998/103

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Luis Carranza , and Chorng-Huey Wong

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 1998

ISBN: 9781451948189

Keywords: capital inflows, emerging market economies, external imbalances, policy designs, causality test, current account, capital account, current account balance, current account deficits

A bivariate vector-autoregression (VAR) model is used to test causal relations between the current account and the capital account in four emerging market economies. The results show that high capital mobility coul...

Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes

Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes »

Source: Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes

Volume/Issue: 2002/7

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): W. Perraudin , Manmohan Kumar , and Uma Moorthy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2002

ISBN: 9781451842425

Keywords: emerging market crises, trading strategies, probability, exchange rate, probabilities, foreign exchange, forecasting

This paper assesses the extent to which crashes in emerging market currencies are predictable using simple logit models based on lagged macroeconomic and financial data. To evaluate our model, we calculate trading...