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Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems
			: The Role of Early Warning Systems

Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems : The Role of Early Warning Systems »

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , Andrew Berg , Gian Milesi-Ferretti , and Eduardo Borensztein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2000

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781557758286.084

ISBN: 9781557758286

Keywords: currency crises, probability, balance of payments, contagion, currency crisis

Recent years have witnessed an increase in the frequency of currency and balance of payments crises in developing countries. More important, the crises have become more virulent, have caused widespread disruption t...

Back Matter

Back Matter »

Source: Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems : The Role of Early Warning Systems

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , Andrew Berg , Gian Milesi-Ferretti , and Eduardo Borensztein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2000

ISBN: 9781557758286

Keywords: currency crises, probability, balance of payments, contagion, currency crisis

Recent years have witnessed an increase in the frequency of currency and balance of payments crises in developing countries. More important, the crises have become more virulent, have caused widespread disruption t...

Front Matter

Front Matter »

Source: Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems : The Role of Early Warning Systems

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , Andrew Berg , Gian Milesi-Ferretti , and Eduardo Borensztein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2000

ISBN: 9781557758286

Keywords: currency crises, probability, balance of payments, contagion, currency crisis

Recent years have witnessed an increase in the frequency of currency and balance of payments crises in developing countries. More important, the crises have become more virulent, have caused widespread disruption t...

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test »

Source: Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Volume/Issue: 1998/154

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , and Andrew Berg

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 1998

ISBN: 9781451857207

Keywords: Currency crises, vulnerability indicators, Asian crisis, balance of payments crises, crisis prediction, probability, probabilities, correlation, crisis index, predictions

This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been...

Assessing Early Warning Systems

Assessing Early Warning Systems »

Source: Assessing Early Warning Systems : How Have they Worked in Practice?

Volume/Issue: 2004/52

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andrew Berg , Eduardo Borensztein , and Catherine Pattillo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2004

ISBN: 9781451847284

Keywords: vulnerability indicators, crisis prediction, forecasting accuracy, balance of payments crisis, probability, predictions, currency crisis, probabilities, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork...

7 Australia

7 Australia »

Source: Payment Systems, Monetary Policy and the Role of the Central Bank

Series: Books

Author(s): Omotunde Johnson , Jean-Marc Destresse , Nicholas Roberts , Mark Swinburne , Tonny Lybek , and Richard Abrams

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 March 1998

ISBN: 9781557756268

Keywords: payments, credit, payment system, payment systems, banking

In this and the following six chapters, similarly structured notes on recent experience in payment system reform are presented for seven countries: Australia, 53...

14 Consensus and Direction for Future Policy Analysis

14 Consensus and Direction for Future Policy Analysis »

Source: Payment Systems, Monetary Policy and the Role of the Central Bank

Series: Books

Author(s): Omotunde Johnson , Jean-Marc Destresse , Nicholas Roberts , Mark Swinburne , Tonny Lybek , and Richard Abrams

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 March 1998

ISBN: 9781557756268

Keywords: payments, credit, payment system, payment systems, banking

Payment systems have become an important focus of public policy worldwide in recent years, and central banks have been given a major role in this area because of their responsibilit...

5 Critical Issues in the Design and Management of Payment Systems

5 Critical Issues in the Design and Management of Payment Systems »

Source: Payment Systems, Monetary Policy and the Role of the Central Bank

Series: Books

Author(s): Omotunde Johnson , Jean-Marc Destresse , Nicholas Roberts , Mark Swinburne , Tonny Lybek , and Richard Abrams

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 March 1998

ISBN: 9781557756268

Keywords: payments, credit, payment system, payment systems, banking

Various social efficiency and organizational issues arise in the design, management, and reform of payment systems. This chapter briefly surveys some of the critical issues involved...

Discriminating Contagion

Discriminating Contagion »

Source: Discriminating Contagion : An Alternative Explanation of Contagious Currency Crises in Emerging Markets

Volume/Issue: 2000/14

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Pavan Ahluwalia

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2000

ISBN: 9781451843118

Keywords: Contagion, currency crisis, balance-of-payments, exchange rate, speculative, currency crises, real exchange rate

This paper shows that a country’s vulnerability to contagious crises depends on the visible similarities between that country and other countries that are experiencing crises. A country is vulnerable to shif...

8 France

8 France »

Source: Payment Systems, Monetary Policy and the Role of the Central Bank

Series: Books

Author(s): Omotunde Johnson , Jean-Marc Destresse , Nicholas Roberts , Mark Swinburne , Tonny Lybek , and Richard Abrams

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 March 1998

ISBN: 9781557756268

Keywords: payments, credit, payment system, payment systems, banking

Overview of the Economic and Financial System France, one of the world’s largest economies, has an area of over 200,000 square miles, a population of 57 million, and in 1994 a per ca...