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Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test »

Source: Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Volume/Issue: 1998/154

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , and Andrew Berg

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 1998

ISBN: 9781451857207

Keywords: Currency crises, vulnerability indicators, Asian crisis, balance of payments crises, crisis prediction, probability, probabilities, correlation, crisis index, predictions

This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been...

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test »

Volume/Issue: 1998/154

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , and Andrew Berg

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 1998

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451857207.001

ISBN: 9781451857207

Keywords: Currency crises, vulnerability indicators, Asian crisis, balance of payments crises, crisis prediction, probability, probabilities, correlation, crisis index, predictions

This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been...

The Optimal Level of International Reserves for Emerging Market Countries
			: Formulas and Applications

The Optimal Level of International Reserves for Emerging Market Countries : Formulas and Applications »

Volume/Issue: 2006/229

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Romain Ranciere , and Olivier Jeanne

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2006

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451864892.001

ISBN: 9781451864892

Keywords: Balance of Payments Crises, probability, domestic absorption, calibration, short-term debt, external debt,

We present a model of the optimal level of international reserves for a small open economy that is vulnerable to sudden stops in capital flows. Reserves allow the country to smooth domestic absorption in response t...

The Optimal Level of International Reserves for Emerging Market Countries

The Optimal Level of International Reserves for Emerging Market Countries »

Source: The Optimal Level of International Reserves for Emerging Market Countries : Formulas and Applications

Volume/Issue: 2006/229

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Romain Ranciere , and Olivier Jeanne

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2006

ISBN: 9781451864892

Keywords: Balance of Payments Crises, probability, domestic absorption, calibration, short-term debt, external debt,

We present a model of the optimal level of international reserves for a small open economy that is vulnerable to sudden stops in capital flows. Reserves allow the country to smooth domestic absorption in response t...