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Assessing Early Warning Systems

Assessing Early Warning Systems »

Source: Assessing Early Warning Systems : How Have they Worked in Practice?

Volume/Issue: 2004/52

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andrew Berg , Eduardo Borensztein , and Catherine Pattillo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2004

ISBN: 9781451847284

Keywords: vulnerability indicators, crisis prediction, forecasting accuracy, balance of payments crisis, probability, predictions, currency crisis, probabilities, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork...

Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies

Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies »

Source: Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies : A Comparative Empirical Treatment

Volume/Issue: 2005/13

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Thomson Fontaine

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2005

ISBN: 9781451860320

Keywords: exchange rate, contagion, currency crisis, fixed exchange rate, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper takes a step in empirically testing the implications of a number of theoretical models that attempt to highlight the dynamics behind currency crises. By focusing on countries with broadly disparate econo...

Assessing Early Warning Systems
			: How Have they Worked in Practice?

Assessing Early Warning Systems : How Have they Worked in Practice? »

Volume/Issue: 2004/52

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andrew Berg , Eduardo Borensztein , and Catherine Pattillo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2004

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451847284.001

ISBN: 9781451847284

Keywords: vulnerability indicators, crisis prediction, forecasting accuracy, balance of payments crisis, probability, predictions, currency crisis, probabilities, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork...

Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies
			: A Comparative Empirical Treatment

Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies : A Comparative Empirical Treatment »

Volume/Issue: 2005/13

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Thomson Fontaine

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2005

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451860320.001

ISBN: 9781451860320

Keywords: exchange rate, contagion, currency crisis, fixed exchange rate, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper takes a step in empirically testing the implications of a number of theoretical models that attempt to highlight the dynamics behind currency crises. By focusing on countries with broadly disparate econo...

Structural Vulnerabilities and Currency Crises

Structural Vulnerabilities and Currency Crises »

Volume/Issue: 2002/9

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Swart Ghosh , and Atish Ghosh

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2002

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451842609.001

ISBN: 9781451842609

Keywords: structural indicators, binary recursive trees, shareholders, current account, shareholder, shareholder rights, Open Economy Macroeconomics, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation, Corporate Finance and Governance: General, Neural Networks and Related Topics,

This paper examines the role of structural factors—governance and rule of law, corporate sector governance (creditor rights and shareholder rights), corporate financing structure—as well as macroecono...

Structural Vulnerabilities and Currency Crises

Structural Vulnerabilities and Currency Crises »

Source: Structural Vulnerabilities and Currency Crises

Volume/Issue: 2002/9

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Swart Ghosh , and Atish Ghosh

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2002

ISBN: 9781451842609

Keywords: structural indicators, binary recursive trees, shareholders, current account, shareholder, shareholder rights, Open Economy Macroeconomics, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation, Corporate Finance and Governance: General, Neural Networks and Related Topics,

This paper examines the role of structural factors—governance and rule of law, corporate sector governance (creditor rights and shareholder rights), corporate financing structure—as well as macroecono...