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Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes

Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes »

Volume/Issue: 2002/7

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): W. Perraudin , Manmohan Kumar , and Uma Moorthy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2002

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451842425.001

ISBN: 9781451842425

Keywords: emerging market crises, trading strategies, probability, exchange rate, probabilities, foreign exchange, forecasting

This paper assesses the extent to which crashes in emerging market currencies are predictable using simple logit models based on lagged macroeconomic and financial data. To evaluate our model, we calculate trading...

Towards a System of Multilateral Unit Labor Cost-Based Competitiveness Indicators for Advanced, Developing, and Transition Countries

Towards a System of Multilateral Unit Labor Cost-Based Competitiveness Indicators for Advanced, Developing, and Transition Countries »

Volume/Issue: 1997/151

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Anthony Turner , and Stephen Golub

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 1997

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451922882.001

ISBN: 9781451922882

Keywords: effective exchange rates, exchange rates, reer, unit labor costs, exchange rate

This paper attempts to extend the range of countries covered by the IMF’s multilateral real exchange rate indexes based on relative unit labor costs (REER-ULCs) in manufacturing. A data set was assembled tha...

Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes

Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes »

Source: Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes

Volume/Issue: 2002/7

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): W. Perraudin , Manmohan Kumar , and Uma Moorthy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2002

ISBN: 9781451842425

Keywords: emerging market crises, trading strategies, probability, exchange rate, probabilities, foreign exchange, forecasting

This paper assesses the extent to which crashes in emerging market currencies are predictable using simple logit models based on lagged macroeconomic and financial data. To evaluate our model, we calculate trading...

Towards a System of Multilateral Unit Labor Cost-Based Competitiveness Indicators for Advanced, Developing, and Transition Countries

Towards a System of Multilateral Unit Labor Cost-Based Competitiveness Indicators for Advanced, Developing, and Transition Countries »

Source: Towards a System of Multilateral Unit Labor Cost-Based Competitiveness Indicators for Advanced, Developing, and Transition Countries

Volume/Issue: 1997/151

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Anthony Turner , and Stephen Golub

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 1997

ISBN: 9781451922882

Keywords: effective exchange rates, exchange rates, reer, unit labor costs, exchange rate

This paper attempts to extend the range of countries covered by the IMF’s multilateral real exchange rate indexes based on relative unit labor costs (REER-ULCs) in manufacturing. A data set was assembled tha...