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Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test »

Source: Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Volume/Issue: 1998/154

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , and Andrew Berg

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 1998

ISBN: 9781451857207

Keywords: Currency crises, vulnerability indicators, Asian crisis, balance of payments crises, crisis prediction, probability, probabilities, correlation, crisis index, predictions

This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been...

Asian crisis and tax policy: Tax reforms could foster recovery by facilitating corporate restructuring

Asian crisis and tax policy: Tax reforms could foster recovery by facilitating corporate restructuring »

Source: IMF Survey : Volume 28, Issue 06

Volume/Issue: 28/6

Series: IMF Survey

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 1999

ISBN: 9781451934199

Keywords: central bank, public debt, interest rates, balance of payments, debt

In a statement issued on March 8, IMF Managing Director Michel Camdessus announced his intention to recommend to the IMF Executive Board that it approve the revised economic program for 1999-2001 proposed by the Br...

Assessing Early Warning Systems

Assessing Early Warning Systems »

Source: Assessing Early Warning Systems : How Have they Worked in Practice?

Volume/Issue: 2004/52

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andrew Berg , Eduardo Borensztein , and Catherine Pattillo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2004

ISBN: 9781451847284

Keywords: vulnerability indicators, crisis prediction, forecasting accuracy, balance of payments crisis, probability, predictions, currency crisis, probabilities, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork...

Chapter 7 Findings and Recommendations

Chapter 7 Findings and Recommendations »

Source: IMF Involvement in International Trade Policy Issues

Series: Independent Evaluation Office Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 October 2009

ISBN: 9781589068674

Keywords: trade liberalization, trade policy issues, trade policies, balance of payments, world trade

A. Findings 56. The substantial swing in IMF involvement in trade policy during the evaluation period went too far on each side. The interventionist appr...

Chapter 6 How Effective Was the IMF’s Work on Trade Policy Issues?

Chapter 6 How Effective Was the IMF’s Work on Trade Policy Issues? »

Source: IMF Involvement in International Trade Policy Issues

Series: Independent Evaluation Office Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 October 2009

ISBN: 9781589068674

Keywords: trade liberalization, trade policy issues, trade policies, balance of payments, world trade

48. There are no straightforward metrics for assessing the effectiveness of the IMF’s involvement in trade policy issues. Three approaches are therefore taken in this evaluation. At...

Chapter 5 IMF Advice on Trade Policy: How Well Was the Approach Carried Out?

Chapter 5 IMF Advice on Trade Policy: How Well Was the Approach Carried Out? »

Source: IMF Involvement in International Trade Policy Issues

Series: Independent Evaluation Office Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 October 2009

ISBN: 9781589068674

Keywords: trade liberalization, trade policy issues, trade policies, balance of payments, world trade

23. IMF coverage of trade policy varied widely in range and depth across countries and over time. The basic tenets of the IMF’s approach to trade policy issues are generally well su...

Chapter 3 Institutional Architecture for Trade Policy: How Well Has Cooperation Worked?

Chapter 3 Institutional Architecture for Trade Policy: How Well Has Cooperation Worked? »

Source: IMF Involvement in International Trade Policy Issues

Series: Independent Evaluation Office Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 October 2009

ISBN: 9781589068674

Keywords: trade liberalization, trade policy issues, trade policies, balance of payments, world trade

9. Interinstitutional cooperation is essential for the IMF to be effective on trade policy issues. Two aspects of the institutional landscape reinforce this point. First, since the...

Chapter 1 Introduction

Chapter 1 Introduction »

Source: IMF Involvement in International Trade Policy Issues

Series: Independent Evaluation Office Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 October 2009

ISBN: 9781589068674

Keywords: trade liberalization, trade policy issues, trade policies, balance of payments, world trade

1. The IMF’s involvement in trade policy issues has been a source of controversy. In contrast to exchange rate, fiscal, or monetary policies, trade policy lies within the IMF’s doma...

Chapter 4 The IMF’s Evolving Role in Trade Policy: How Was the Process Guided?

Chapter 4 The IMF’s Evolving Role in Trade Policy: How Was the Process Guided? »

Source: IMF Involvement in International Trade Policy Issues

Series: Independent Evaluation Office Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 October 2009

ISBN: 9781589068674

Keywords: trade liberalization, trade policy issues, trade policies, balance of payments, world trade

20. Executive Board guidance on trade policy since the mid-1990s pushed staff both to broaden the range of issues they covered and to be more selective. 5...

Chapter 2 What Is the Nature of the IMF’s Mandate to Cover Trade Policy?

Chapter 2 What Is the Nature of the IMF’s Mandate to Cover Trade Policy? »

Source: IMF Involvement in International Trade Policy Issues

Series: Independent Evaluation Office Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 October 2009

ISBN: 9781589068674

Keywords: trade liberalization, trade policy issues, trade policies, balance of payments, world trade

5. The IMF’s mandate on trade policy issues is broad, but not precise. 2 The root of the mandate lies in Article I(ii) which specifies that a purpo...