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  • Keywords: Business Fluctuations x
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Default, Credit Growth, and Asset Prices

Default, Credit Growth, and Asset Prices »

Source: Default, Credit Growth, and Asset Prices

Volume/Issue: 2006/223

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): C. Goodhart , Miguel Segoviano Basurto , and Boris Hofmann

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2006

ISBN: 9781451864830

Keywords: Probability of default, macroeconomic shocks, financial surveillance, banking, bank lending, probability, Econometric Modeling: General, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation

This paper uses a Merton-type estimate of the probability of default (PoD) for the main banks in a sample of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and middle-income countries as a proxy for the frag...

Exchange Rate Pass-Through Over the Business Cycle in Singapore

Exchange Rate Pass-Through Over the Business Cycle in Singapore »

Source: Exchange Rate Pass-Through Over the Business Cycle in Singapore

Volume/Issue: 2011/141

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Siang Tan , Joey Chew , and Sam Ouliaris

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2011

ISBN: 9781455266425

Keywords: exchange rate, business cycle, consumer price index, output gap, monetary policy, Business Fluctuations, And Cycles, Central Banking, And The Supply Of Money And Credit, international Finance

This paper investigates exchange rate pass-through in Singapore using band-pass spectral regression techniques, allowing for asymmetric effects over the business cycle. First stage pass-through is estimated to be c...

Forecasting Inflation in Indonesia

Forecasting Inflation in Indonesia »

Source: Forecasting Inflation in Indonesia

Volume/Issue: 2002/111

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Uma Ramakrishnan , and Athanasios Vamvakidis

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2002

ISBN: 9781451853483

Keywords: inflation forecasting, monetary policy, price inflation, monetary fund, money supply, Model Construction and Estimation, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation,

A reliable inflation-forecasting model is central for a sound monetary policy framework. In this paper, we study the domestic and international transmission effects on inflation in Indonesia and analyze the possibl...

Forecasting Thailand's Core Inflation

Forecasting Thailand's Core Inflation »

Source: Forecasting Thailand's Core Inflation

Volume/Issue: 2004/90

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tao Sun

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2004

ISBN: 9781451851427

Keywords: Core Inflation, cointegration, statistics, equation, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper develops an approach for forecasting in Thailand core inflation. The key innovation is to anchor the projections derived from the short-term time-series properties of core inflation to its longer-run evo...

Default, Credit Growth, and Asset Prices

Default, Credit Growth, and Asset Prices »

Volume/Issue: 2006/223

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): C. Goodhart , Miguel Segoviano Basurto , and Boris Hofmann

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2006

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451864830.001

ISBN: 9781451864830

Keywords: Probability of default, macroeconomic shocks, financial surveillance, banking, bank lending, probability, Econometric Modeling: General, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation

This paper uses a Merton-type estimate of the probability of default (PoD) for the main banks in a sample of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and middle-income countries as a proxy for the frag...

Forecasting Inflation in Indonesia

Forecasting Inflation in Indonesia »

Volume/Issue: 2002/111

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Uma Ramakrishnan , and Athanasios Vamvakidis

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2002

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451853483.001

ISBN: 9781451853483

Keywords: inflation forecasting, monetary policy, price inflation, monetary fund, money supply, Model Construction and Estimation, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation,

A reliable inflation-forecasting model is central for a sound monetary policy framework. In this paper, we study the domestic and international transmission effects on inflation in Indonesia and analyze the possibl...

Forecasting Thailand's Core Inflation

Forecasting Thailand's Core Inflation »

Volume/Issue: 2004/90

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tao Sun

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2004

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451851427.001

ISBN: 9781451851427

Keywords: Core Inflation, cointegration, statistics, equation, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper develops an approach for forecasting in Thailand core inflation. The key innovation is to anchor the projections derived from the short-term time-series properties of core inflation to its longer-run evo...

Modeling with Limited Data
			: Estimating Potential Growth in Cambodia

Modeling with Limited Data : Estimating Potential Growth in Cambodia »

Volume/Issue: 2012/96

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475502862.001

ISBN: 9781475502862

Keywords: growth diagnostics, export diversification, fixed capital formation, factor accumulation, output growth, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation, One

This paper proposes a framework to analyze long-term potential growth that combines a simple quantitative model with an investigative approach of ‘growth diagnostics'. The framework is used to forecast potential gr...

Philippines
			: Preparations for Inflation Targeting

Philippines : Preparations for Inflation Targeting »

Volume/Issue: 2001/99

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Piyabha Kongsamut

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2001

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451852271.001

ISBN: 9781451852271

Keywords: inflation targeting, inflation modeling, inflation, inflation target, central bank, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation, Targeting,

The Philippines is planning to shift toward adoption of an inflation targeting framework in 2001. This paper reviews key policy issues in this context, describes various operational and technical preparations, and...

Exchange Rate Pass-Through Over the Business Cycle in Singapore

Exchange Rate Pass-Through Over the Business Cycle in Singapore »

Volume/Issue: 2011/141

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Siang Tan , Joey Chew , and Sam Ouliaris

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455266425.001

ISBN: 9781455266425

Keywords: exchange rate, business cycle, consumer price index, output gap, monetary policy, Business Fluctuations, And Cycles, Central Banking, And The Supply Of Money And Credit, international Finance

This paper investigates exchange rate pass-through in Singapore using band-pass spectral regression techniques, allowing for asymmetric effects over the business cycle. First stage pass-through is estimated to be c...