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The Challenge of Predicting Economic Crises

The Challenge of Predicting Economic Crises »

Series: Economic Issues

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , and Andrew Berg

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 September 2000

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781557758842.051

ISBN: 9781557758842

Keywords: early warning, warning system, early warning system, financial markets, currency crises

The integration of financial markets around the world over the past decade has posed new challenges for policymakers. The speed with which money can be switched in and out of currencies and countries has increased...

Currency and Banking Crises

Currency and Banking Crises »

Source: Currency and Banking Crises : The Early Warnings of Distress

Volume/Issue: 1999/178

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Graciela Kaminsky

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 1999

ISBN: 9781451858938

Keywords: Early Warnings, Currency Crises, Banking Crises, banking, financial crises, banking crisis

The abruptness and virulence of the 1997 Asian crises have led many to claim that these crises are of a new breed and were thus unforecastable. This paper examines 102 financial crises in 20 countries and concludes...

Early Warning Systems

Early Warning Systems »

Source: Early Warning Systems : A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach

Volume/Issue: 2003/32

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Abdul Abiad

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2003

ISBN: 9781451845136

Keywords: Currency crisis, early warning system, regime switching, Markov switching, probability, probabilities, currency crises, asian crisis, contagion, Forecasting and Other Model Applications

Previous early-warning systems (EWSs) for currency crises have relied on models that require a priori dating of crises. This paper proposes an alternative EWS, based on a Markov-switching model, which identifies an...

Currency and Banking Crises
			: The Early Warnings of Distress

Currency and Banking Crises : The Early Warnings of Distress »

Volume/Issue: 1999/178

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Graciela Kaminsky

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 1999

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451858938.001

ISBN: 9781451858938

Keywords: Early Warnings, Currency Crises, Banking Crises, banking, financial crises, banking crisis

The abruptness and virulence of the 1997 Asian crises have led many to claim that these crises are of a new breed and were thus unforecastable. This paper examines 102 financial crises in 20 countries and concludes...

Early Warning Systems
			: A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach

Early Warning Systems : A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach »

Volume/Issue: 2003/32

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Abdul Abiad

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451845136.001

ISBN: 9781451845136

Keywords: Currency crisis, early warning system, regime switching, Markov switching, probability, probabilities, currency crises, asian crisis, contagion, Forecasting and Other Model Applications

Previous early-warning systems (EWSs) for currency crises have relied on models that require a priori dating of crises. This paper proposes an alternative EWS, based on a Markov-switching model, which identifies an...

Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises

Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises »

Volume/Issue: 2003/221

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Axel Schimmelpfennig , Nouriel Roubini , and Paolo Manasse

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451875256.001

ISBN: 9781451875256

Keywords: Early-warning system, sovereign debt crises, sovereign default, debt crisis, external debt, debt crises, short-term debt, currency crisis, General Outlook and Conditions, Forecasting and Other Model Applications

We develop an early-warning model of sovereign debt crises. A country is defined to be in a debt crisis if it is classified as being in default by Standard & Poor's, or if it has access to nonconcessional IMF finan...

Rating the Rating Agencies
			: Anticipating Currency Crises or Debt Crises?

Rating the Rating Agencies : Anticipating Currency Crises or Debt Crises? »

Volume/Issue: 2003/122

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Amadou Sy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451854510.001

ISBN: 9781451854510

Keywords: Crisis, distress, early-warning systems, probability of default, ratings, currency crises, currency crisis, debt crises, bond, sovereign default

In contrast to the early-warning system literature, we find that currency and debt crises are not closely linked in emerging markets. We find that after 1994, credit ratings predict debt crises but fail to anticipa...

Predicting Economic Crises: An Early Warning System

Predicting Economic Crises: An Early Warning System »

Source: The Challenge of Predicting Economic Crises

Series: Economic Issues

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , and Andrew Berg

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 September 2000

ISBN: 9781557758842

Keywords: early warning, warning system, early warning system, financial markets, currency crises

The integration of financial markets around the world over the past decade has posed new challenges for policymakers. The speed with which money can be switched in and out of currencies and countries has inc...

Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises

Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises »

Source: Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises

Volume/Issue: 2003/221

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Axel Schimmelpfennig , Nouriel Roubini , and Paolo Manasse

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2003

ISBN: 9781451875256

Keywords: Early-warning system, sovereign debt crises, sovereign default, debt crisis, external debt, debt crises, short-term debt, currency crisis, General Outlook and Conditions, Forecasting and Other Model Applications

We develop an early-warning model of sovereign debt crises. A country is defined to be in a debt crisis if it is classified as being in default by Standard & Poor's, or if it has access to nonconcessional IMF finan...

Rating the Rating Agencies

Rating the Rating Agencies »

Source: Rating the Rating Agencies : Anticipating Currency Crises or Debt Crises?

Volume/Issue: 2003/122

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Amadou Sy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2003

ISBN: 9781451854510

Keywords: Crisis, distress, early-warning systems, probability of default, ratings, currency crises, currency crisis, debt crises, bond, sovereign default

In contrast to the early-warning system literature, we find that currency and debt crises are not closely linked in emerging markets. We find that after 1994, credit ratings predict debt crises but fail to anticipa...