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Emerging Market Bond Spreads and Sovereign Credit Ratings
			: Reconciling Market Views with Economic Fundamentals

Emerging Market Bond Spreads and Sovereign Credit Ratings : Reconciling Market Views with Economic Fundamentals »

Volume/Issue: 2001/165

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Amadou Sy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2001

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451858051.001

ISBN: 9781451858051

Keywords: Bond spreads, monitoring, risk appetite, bond, bonds, emerging market bond, market bond, Financial Institutions and Services: General,

This paper uses a panel data estimation of a simple univariate model of sovereign spreads on ratings to analyze statistically significant deviations from the estimated relationship. We find evidence of an asymmetri...

Fatal Attraction
			: A New Measure of Contagion

Fatal Attraction : A New Measure of Contagion »

Volume/Issue: 2003/80

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tamim Bayoumi , Manmohan Kumar , Giorgio Fazio , and Ronald MacDonald

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451850321.001

ISBN: 9781451850321

Keywords: Contagion, international capital flows, emerging market crises, correlations, correlation, currency crises, asian crisis, International Lending and Debt Problems,

This paper proposes a new measure of contagion that is good at anticipating future vulnerabilities. Building on previous work, it uses correlations of equity markets across countries to measure contagion, but in a...

How Intensive Is Competition in the Emerging Markets? An Analysis of Corporate Rates of Return from Nine Emerging Markets

How Intensive Is Competition in the Emerging Markets? An Analysis of Corporate Rates of Return from Nine Emerging Markets »

Volume/Issue: 1999/32

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ajit Singh , Rudolph Matthias , and Jack Glen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 1999

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451845099.001

ISBN: 9781451845099

Keywords: Corporate Rates of Return, Intensity of Competition, Emerging Markets, standard deviation, equation, statistic

This large empirical study of corporate profitability in emerging markets during the 1980s and 1990s measures the intensity of competition. Data on corporate rates of return, profit margins, and output-capital rati...

Policy Responses to External Imbalances in Emerging Market Economies
			: Further Empirical Results

Policy Responses to External Imbalances in Emerging Market Economies : Further Empirical Results »

Volume/Issue: 1998/103

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Luis Carranza , and Chorng-Huey Wong

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 1998

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451948189.001

ISBN: 9781451948189

Keywords: capital inflows, emerging market economies, external imbalances, policy designs, causality test, current account, capital account, current account balance, current account deficits

A bivariate vector-autoregression (VAR) model is used to test causal relations between the current account and the capital account in four emerging market economies. The results show that high capital mobility coul...

Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes

Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes »

Volume/Issue: 2002/7

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): W. Perraudin , Manmohan Kumar , and Uma Moorthy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2002

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451842425.001

ISBN: 9781451842425

Keywords: emerging market crises, trading strategies, probability, exchange rate, probabilities, foreign exchange, forecasting

This paper assesses the extent to which crashes in emerging market currencies are predictable using simple logit models based on lagged macroeconomic and financial data. To evaluate our model, we calculate trading...

IV EWS Models and the Severity of Currency Crises

IV EWS Models and the Severity of Currency Crises »

Source: Fiscal Vulnerability and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Richard Hemming , Axel Schimmelpfennig , and Michael Kell

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 May 2003

ISBN: 9781589061965

Keywords: Emerging markets, fiscal variables, public debt, currency crises, fiscal policy, external debt

This section summarizes the results of various statistical and econometric analyses of the dataset described in the previous section. First, the extent to which fisc...

Policy Responses to External Imbalances in Emerging Market Economies

Policy Responses to External Imbalances in Emerging Market Economies »

Source: Policy Responses to External Imbalances in Emerging Market Economies : Further Empirical Results

Volume/Issue: 1998/103

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Luis Carranza , and Chorng-Huey Wong

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 1998

ISBN: 9781451948189

Keywords: capital inflows, emerging market economies, external imbalances, policy designs, causality test, current account, capital account, current account balance, current account deficits

A bivariate vector-autoregression (VAR) model is used to test causal relations between the current account and the capital account in four emerging market economies. The results show that high capital mobility coul...

Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes

Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes »

Source: Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes

Volume/Issue: 2002/7

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): W. Perraudin , Manmohan Kumar , and Uma Moorthy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2002

ISBN: 9781451842425

Keywords: emerging market crises, trading strategies, probability, exchange rate, probabilities, foreign exchange, forecasting

This paper assesses the extent to which crashes in emerging market currencies are predictable using simple logit models based on lagged macroeconomic and financial data. To evaluate our model, we calculate trading...

V Case Studies

V Case Studies »

Source: Fiscal Vulnerability and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Richard Hemming , Axel Schimmelpfennig , and Michael Kell

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 May 2003

ISBN: 9781589061965

Keywords: Emerging markets, fiscal variables, public debt, currency crises, fiscal policy, external debt

This section reports the conclusions from case studies of 11 financial crises in emerging market economies in the 1990s. In chronological order, these are Mexico (19...

Vanishing Contagion?

Vanishing Contagion? »

Source: Vanishing Contagion?

Volume/Issue: 2006/1

Series: IMF Policy Discussion Papers

Author(s): Paolo Mauro , Tatiana Didier , and Sergio Schmukler

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2006

ISBN: 9781451946062

Keywords: Economic integration, Financial crisis, Emerging markets, crises, international integration, international transmission of shocks, contagion, investors, mutual funds, emerging market

While a number of emerging market crises were characterized by widespread contagion during the 1990s, more recent crises (notably, in Argentina) have been mostly contained within national borders. This has led some...