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IMF Staff Papers, Volume 52, No. 1

IMF Staff Papers, Volume 52, No. 1 »

Volume: 52

Series: IMF Staff Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 April 2005

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781589064195.024

ISBN: 9781589064195

Keywords: recessions, recession, asian crisis, probability, probabilities, Capital Stock, Convergence (economics), Correlation (statistics), Decomposition Method, Economic Development. Econometric Models

This first issue of IMF Staff Papers for 2005 contains 7 papers that discuss: whether output recovered after the Asian crisis; the value of a country's trading partners to its own economic growth; whether interdepe...

Addressing Information Gaps

Addressing Information Gaps »

Volume/Issue: 2009/06

Series: IMF Staff Position Notes

Author(s): Christian Mulder , Phil De Imus , L. Psalida , Jeanne Gobat , R. Johnston , Mangal Goswami , and Francisco Vazquez

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 March 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455294602.004

ISBN: 9781455294602

Keywords: Credit risk, Data analysis, Data quality assessment framework, Capital markets, Financial sector, Financial institutions, Financial instruments, Financial crisis, Economic models, Economic indicators

...

A Newton's Method for Benchmarking Time Series According to a Growth Rates Preservation Principle

A Newton's Method for Benchmarking Time Series According to a Growth Rates Preservation Principle »

Volume/Issue: 2011/179

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Marco Marini , and Tommaso Di Fonzo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781462311293.001

ISBN: 9781462311293

Keywords: Benchmarking, Movement preservation, Linearly equality constrained non-linear optimization, Newton&;amp;#x2019;s method, optimization, minimization, statistics, computation, Methodology for Collecting, Estimating

This work presents a new technique for temporally benchmarking a time series according to the growth rates preservation principle (GRP) by Causey and Trager (1981). A procedure is developed which (i) transforms the...

An Econometric Rational Expectations Macroeconomic Model for Developing Countries with Capital Controls

An Econometric Rational Expectations Macroeconomic Model for Developing Countries with Capital Controls »

Volume/Issue: 1990/11

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 1990

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451925869.001

ISBN: 9781451925869

Keywords: capital mobility, equation, equations, statistics, correlation

A small macroeconomic model based on familiar theoretical considerations is developed and estimated using data from 31 developing countries. Efficient estimation techniques are used to control for country heterogen...

Asymmetric Adjustment and Nonlinear Dynamics in Real Exchange Rates

Asymmetric Adjustment and Nonlinear Dynamics in Real Exchange Rates »

Volume/Issue: 2003/159

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Gene Leon , and Serineh Najarian

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451857696.001

ISBN: 9781451857696

Keywords: Nonlinearities, asymmetry, exchange rate, exchange rates, nonlinearity, statistics, real exchange rate,

This paper examines whether deviations from PPP are stationary in the presence of nonlinearity, and whether the adjustment toward PPP is symmetric from above and below. Using alternative nonlinear models, our resul...

Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs

Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs »

Volume/Issue: 2001/45

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Steven Phillips , and Alberto Musso

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2001

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451846478.001

ISBN: 9781451846478

Keywords: IMF, programs, projections, forecasts, statistics, statistic, forecasting, samples

“Program numbers” from a sample of IMF-supported programs are studied as if they were forecasts, through statistical analyses of the relationship between projections and outcomes for growth, inflation...

Do 'Flexible' Exchange Rates of Developing Countries Behave Like the Floating Exchange Rates of Industrialized Countries?

Do 'Flexible' Exchange Rates of Developing Countries Behave Like the Floating Exchange Rates of Industrialized Countries? »

Volume/Issue: 2002/82

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Peter Wickham

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2002

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451850451.001

ISBN: 9781451850451

Keywords: Flexible and floating exchange rates, exchange rate, exchange rates, statistics, statistic,

The paper examines the behavior of daily spot exchange rates for a sample of industrialized countries which are generally considered to be floating with only occasional official foreign exchange market intervention...

Financial Development and Economic Growth
			: An Economic Analysis for Singapore

Financial Development and Economic Growth : An Economic Analysis for Singapore »

Volume/Issue: 1996/15

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Lamin Leigh

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 1996

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451843217.001

ISBN: 9781451843217

Keywords: equation, statistics, growth model, time series, cointegration

With the emergence of the rapidly expanding literature on endogenous growth, the relationship between financial development and economic growth has received a new source of inspiration. Recent cointegration techniq...

Fiscal Coverage in the Countries of the Middle East and Central Asia
			: Current Situation and a Way Forward

Fiscal Coverage in the Countries of the Middle East and Central Asia : Current Situation and a Way Forward »

Volume/Issue: 2008/111

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Daria Zakharova

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451869712.001

ISBN: 9781451869712

Keywords: Fiscal coverage, public enterprises, fiscal risks, fiscal statistics, fiscal policy, fiscal accounts, Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government,

This paper reviews some broad principles of fiscal coverage, building on cross-country experience. It discusses the level of coverage that would be appropriate to conduct good quality fiscal analysis, while strikin...

Forecasting Thailand's Core Inflation

Forecasting Thailand's Core Inflation »

Volume/Issue: 2004/90

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tao Sun

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2004

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451851427.001

ISBN: 9781451851427

Keywords: Core Inflation, cointegration, statistics, equation, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper develops an approach for forecasting in Thailand core inflation. The key innovation is to anchor the projections derived from the short-term time-series properties of core inflation to its longer-run evo...