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Did Output Recover From the Asian Crisis?

Did Output Recover From the Asian Crisis? »

Source: Did Output Recover From the Asian Crisis?

Volume/Issue: 2003/48

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Valerie Cerra , and Sweta Saxena

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2003

ISBN: 9781451846751

Keywords: Crisis, Recovery, Hong Kong, Korea, recessions, asian crisis, recession, probability, probabilities, International Finance: Other

This paper investigates the extent to which output has recovered from the Asian crisis. A regime-switching approach that introduces two state variables is used to decompose recessions in a set of six Asian countrie...

Early Warning Systems

Early Warning Systems »

Source: Early Warning Systems : A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach

Volume/Issue: 2003/32

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Abdul Abiad

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2003

ISBN: 9781451845136

Keywords: Currency crisis, early warning system, regime switching, Markov switching, probability, probabilities, currency crises, asian crisis, contagion, Forecasting and Other Model Applications

Previous early-warning systems (EWSs) for currency crises have relied on models that require a priori dating of crises. This paper proposes an alternative EWS, based on a Markov-switching model, which identifies an...

Front-Loaded or Back-Loaded Fiscal Adjustments

Front-Loaded or Back-Loaded Fiscal Adjustments »

Source: Front-Loaded or Back-Loaded Fiscal Adjustments : What Works in Emerging Market Economies?

Volume/Issue: 2004/157

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Benedict Clements , Sanjeev Gupta , Emanuele Baldacci , and Carlos Mulas-Granados

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2004

ISBN: 9781451857528

Keywords: fiscal consolidations, fiscal adjustments, fiscal sustainability, probability, statistics, Duration Analysis, Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: General,

This paper investigates the political and economic determinants of successful fiscal adjustment in 25 emerging market economies from 1980 to 2001. The results show that large and back-loaded fiscal adjustments have...

Did Output Recover From the Asian Crisis?

Did Output Recover From the Asian Crisis? »

Volume/Issue: 2003/48

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Valerie Cerra , and Sweta Saxena

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451846751.001

ISBN: 9781451846751

Keywords: Crisis, Recovery, Hong Kong, Korea, recessions, asian crisis, recession, probability, probabilities, International Finance: Other

This paper investigates the extent to which output has recovered from the Asian crisis. A regime-switching approach that introduces two state variables is used to decompose recessions in a set of six Asian countrie...

Early Warning Systems
			: A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach

Early Warning Systems : A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach »

Volume/Issue: 2003/32

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Abdul Abiad

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451845136.001

ISBN: 9781451845136

Keywords: Currency crisis, early warning system, regime switching, Markov switching, probability, probabilities, currency crises, asian crisis, contagion, Forecasting and Other Model Applications

Previous early-warning systems (EWSs) for currency crises have relied on models that require a priori dating of crises. This paper proposes an alternative EWS, based on a Markov-switching model, which identifies an...

Front-Loaded or Back-Loaded Fiscal Adjustments
			: What Works in Emerging Market Economies?

Front-Loaded or Back-Loaded Fiscal Adjustments : What Works in Emerging Market Economies? »

Volume/Issue: 2004/157

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Benedict Clements , Sanjeev Gupta , Emanuele Baldacci , and Carlos Mulas-Granados

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2004

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451857528.001

ISBN: 9781451857528

Keywords: fiscal consolidations, fiscal adjustments, fiscal sustainability, probability, statistics, Duration Analysis, Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: General,

This paper investigates the political and economic determinants of successful fiscal adjustment in 25 emerging market economies from 1980 to 2001. The results show that large and back-loaded fiscal adjustments have...

Imperfect Information and Saving in a Small Open Economy

Imperfect Information and Saving in a Small Open Economy »

Volume/Issue: 2011/60

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Agustin Roitman , and Christian Daude

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455221042.001

ISBN: 9781455221042

Keywords: saving, uncertainty, Bayesian learning, Markov switching, autocorrelation, stochastic process, correlation, probabilities, statistics, Asymmetric and Private Information,

Emerging markets are more volatile and face different types of shocks, in size and nature, compared to their developed counterparts. Accurate identification of the stochastic properties of shocks is difficult. We s...

Monitoring Banking Sector Fragility
			: A Multivariate Logit Approach

Monitoring Banking Sector Fragility : A Multivariate Logit Approach »

Volume/Issue: 1999/147

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Enrica Detragiache , and Asli Demirgüç-Kunt

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 1999

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451856712.001

ISBN: 9781451856712

Keywords: Banking crises, bank fragility, monitoring, probability, banking, probabilities, banking crisis

This paper explores how a multivariate logit empirical model of banking crisis probabilities can be used to monitor banking sector fragility. The proposed approach relies on readily available data, and the fragilit...

Rent Seeking and Endogenous Income Inequality

Rent Seeking and Endogenous Income Inequality »

Volume/Issue: 2001/15

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Wade , and Era Dabla-Norris

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2001

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451843262.001

ISBN: 9781451843262

Keywords: lotteries, probability, expropriation, equation, credit markets, equations, Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions, Models of Political Processes: Rent-seeking

This paper studies the relationship between wealth inequality and occupational choice between rent-seeking and production. With imperfect credit markets and a fixed cost to rent-seeking, only wealthy agents choose...

What Sustains Fiscal Consolidations in Emerging Market Countries?

What Sustains Fiscal Consolidations in Emerging Market Countries? »

Volume/Issue: 2003/224

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Benedict Clements , Sanjeev Gupta , Erwin Tiongson , and Emanuele Baldacci

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451875348.001

ISBN: 9781451875348

Keywords: survival analysis, probability, fiscal adjustments, fiscal deficit, Econometric and Statistical Methods: - Special Topics, Macroeconomic - Aspects of Public Finance, Macroeconomic Policy, and General Outlook,

This paper examines the factors affecting the persistence of fiscal consolidation in 25 emerging market countries during 1980-2001. It proposes a new approach for defining spells of fiscal consolidation. The result...