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Assessing Early Warning Systems
			: How Have they Worked in Practice?

Assessing Early Warning Systems : How Have they Worked in Practice? »

Volume/Issue: 2004/52

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andrew Berg , Eduardo Borensztein , and Catherine Pattillo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2004

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451847284.001

ISBN: 9781451847284

Keywords: vulnerability indicators, crisis prediction, forecasting accuracy, balance of payments crisis, probability, predictions, currency crisis, probabilities, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork...

Conventional and Insidious Macroeconomic Balance-Sheet Crises

Conventional and Insidious Macroeconomic Balance-Sheet Crises »

Volume/Issue: 2014/160

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Bas Bakker , and Leslie Lipschitz

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 August 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498389044.001

ISBN: 9781498389044

Keywords: crises, capital inflows, exchange rate, real effective exchange rate, effective exchange rate, General, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance, Globalization: General,

This paper describes the anatomy of two types of balance-sheet macroeconomic crises. Conventional balance-sheet crises are triggered by external imbalances and balance sheet vulnerabilities. They typically occur af...

Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies
			: A Comparative Empirical Treatment

Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies : A Comparative Empirical Treatment »

Volume/Issue: 2005/13

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Thomson Fontaine

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2005

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451860320.001

ISBN: 9781451860320

Keywords: exchange rate, contagion, currency crisis, fixed exchange rate, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper takes a step in empirically testing the implications of a number of theoretical models that attempt to highlight the dynamics behind currency crises. By focusing on countries with broadly disparate econo...

Current Account Rebalancing and Real Exchange Rate Adjustment Between the U.S. and Emerging Asia

Current Account Rebalancing and Real Exchange Rate Adjustment Between the U.S. and Emerging Asia »

Volume/Issue: 2011/46

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Damiano Sandri , Pau Rabanal , and Isabelle Mejean

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455218967.001

ISBN: 9781455218967

Keywords: Rebalancing, Intermediate Inputs, terms of trade, tradable goods, exchange rate, export prices, Open Economy Macroeconomics, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

A reduction in the U.S. current account deficit vis-à-vis emerging Asia involves a shift in demand from U.S. to emerging Asia tradable goods and a change in international relative prices. This paper quantifies the...

Did Output Recover From the Asian Crisis?

Did Output Recover From the Asian Crisis? »

Volume/Issue: 2003/48

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Valerie Cerra , and Sweta Saxena

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451846751.001

ISBN: 9781451846751

Keywords: Crisis, Recovery, Hong Kong, Korea, recessions, asian crisis, recession, probability, probabilities, International Finance: Other

This paper investigates the extent to which output has recovered from the Asian crisis. A regime-switching approach that introduces two state variables is used to decompose recessions in a set of six Asian countrie...

Do Macroeconomic Effects of Capital Controls Vary by their Type? Evidence From Malaysia

Do Macroeconomic Effects of Capital Controls Vary by their Type? Evidence From Malaysia »

Volume/Issue: 2004/3

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Natalia Tamirisa

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2004

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451841930.001

ISBN: 9781451841930

Keywords: exchange, controls, portfolio, flows, Asian crisis, capital controls, foreign currency, capital flows, foreign exchange, direct investment

This paper examines how the macroeconomic effects of capital controls vary depending on which type of international financial transaction they cover. Drawing on Malaysia's experiences in regulating the capital acco...

Early Warning Systems
			: A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach

Early Warning Systems : A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach »

Volume/Issue: 2003/32

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Abdul Abiad

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451845136.001

ISBN: 9781451845136

Keywords: Currency crisis, early warning system, regime switching, Markov switching, probability, probabilities, currency crises, asian crisis, contagion, Forecasting and Other Model Applications

Previous early-warning systems (EWSs) for currency crises have relied on models that require a priori dating of crises. This paper proposes an alternative EWS, based on a Markov-switching model, which identifies an...

Emerging Asia's Impact on Australian Growth
			: Some Insights From GEM

Emerging Asia's Impact on Australian Growth : Some Insights From GEM »

Volume/Issue: 2010/262

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Benjamin Hunt

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455210695.001

ISBN: 9781455210695

Keywords: Emerging Asia, Productivity Growth, Rebalancing, exchange rates, exchange rate, real exchange rates, tradable goods, Economic Growth of Open Economies, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation, One

Over the last decade, GDP growth in emerging Asia was roughly twice as fast as average world growth. The IMF's Global Economy Model (GEM) is used to estimate the impact that emerging Asia's growth differential has...

Exchange-Rate Dark Matter

Exchange-Rate Dark Matter »

Volume/Issue: 2012/66

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Martin Evans

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463938437.001

ISBN: 9781463938437

Keywords: Exchange Rate Dynamics, Open-Economy Macro Models, Habits, Incomplete Markets, risk, consumption, exchange-rate, exchange rates, depreciation, Macroeconomic Aspects Of International Trade And Finance

Dark matter accounts for 83 percent of the matter in the universe and plays a central role in cosmology modeling. This paper argues that an analogous form of dark matter plays a similarly important role in internat...

External Finance, Sudden Stops, and Financial Crisis
			: What is Different This Time?

External Finance, Sudden Stops, and Financial Crisis : What is Different This Time? »

Volume/Issue: 2010/158

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): F. Gulcin Ozkan , and Filiz Unsal

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455201419.001

ISBN: 9781455201419

Keywords: entrepreneurs, domestic economy, entrepreneur, open economy, domestic goods, And The Supply Of Money And Credit, international Finance, macroeconomic Aspects Of International Trade And Finance,

This paper develops a two-country DSGE model to investigate the transmission of a global financial crisis to a small open economy. We find that economies hit by a sudden stop arising from financial distress in the...