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Emerging Market Volatility
			: Lessons from The Taper Tantrum

Emerging Market Volatility : Lessons from The Taper Tantrum »

Volume/Issue: 2014/9

Series: Staff Discussion Notes

Author(s): Ratna Sahay , Vivek Arora , Athanasios Arvanitis , Hamid Faruqee , Papa N'Diaye , and Tommaso Mancini Griffoli

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 October 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498318204.006

ISBN: 9781498318204

Keywords: Monetary policy, Emerging markets, United States, Capital flows, Financial markets, Capital market volatility, Macroprudential Policy, Developed countries, Tapering, unconventional monetary policy

Accommodative monetary policies in advanced economies have spurred increased capital inflows into emerging markets since the global financial crisis. Starting in May 2013, when the Federal Reserve publicly discusse...

IMF Staff papers
			: Volume 38 No. 3

IMF Staff papers : Volume 38 No. 3 »

Volume: 38

Series: IMF Staff Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 1991

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451973136.024

ISBN: 9781451973136

Keywords: current account, real exchange, real exchange rate, exchange rate, trade liberalization

Trade liberalization in developing countries is frequently opposed on the grounds that, because it is likely to cause a deterioration in the external balance, it may not be a viable policy option for countries faci...

IMF Survey, Volume 32, Issue 14

IMF Survey, Volume 32, Issue 14 »

Volume/Issue: 32/14

Series: IMF Survey

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 August 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451930405.023

ISBN: 9781451930405

Keywords: capital account, capital account crises, exchange rate, imf-supported programs, capital outflows

In the late 1990s, a series of capital account crises rocked the global economy. The IMF found itself at the center of this turmoil and criticized as never before. The experience triggered extensive internal and ex...

Asymmetric Adjustment and Nonlinear Dynamics in Real Exchange Rates

Asymmetric Adjustment and Nonlinear Dynamics in Real Exchange Rates »

Volume/Issue: 2003/159

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Gene Leon , and Serineh Najarian

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451857696.001

ISBN: 9781451857696

Keywords: Nonlinearities, asymmetry, exchange rate, exchange rates, nonlinearity, statistics, real exchange rate,

This paper examines whether deviations from PPP are stationary in the presence of nonlinearity, and whether the adjustment toward PPP is symmetric from above and below. Using alternative nonlinear models, our resul...

Balance Sheets, Exchange Rate Policy, and Welfare

Balance Sheets, Exchange Rate Policy, and Welfare »

Volume/Issue: 2004/63

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Selim Elekdag , and Ivan Tchakarov

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2004

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451848458.001

ISBN: 9781451848458

Keywords: financial accelerator, debt-to-GDP threshold, second-order approximation, exchange rate, exchange rate regimes, exchange rate regime, flexible exchange rate, fixed exchange rate, Open Economy Macroeconomics,

The debate about the appropriate choice of exchange rate regime is fundamental in international economics. This paper develops a small open-economy model with balance sheet effects and compares the performance of f...

Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies
			: A Comparative Empirical Treatment

Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies : A Comparative Empirical Treatment »

Volume/Issue: 2005/13

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Thomson Fontaine

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2005

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451860320.001

ISBN: 9781451860320

Keywords: exchange rate, contagion, currency crisis, fixed exchange rate, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper takes a step in empirically testing the implications of a number of theoretical models that attempt to highlight the dynamics behind currency crises. By focusing on countries with broadly disparate econo...

Exchange Market Pressure and Monetary Policy
			: Asia and Latin America in the 1990s

Exchange Market Pressure and Monetary Policy : Asia and Latin America in the 1990s »

Volume/Issue: 1999/114

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Evan Tanner

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 1999

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451853773.001

ISBN: 9781451853773

Keywords: Exchange Market Pressure, Domestic Credit, Exchange Rate, Vector Autoregression, monetary base, money supply, inflation, monetary fund

Exchange market pressure (EMP), the sum of exchange rate depreciation and reserve outflows (scaled by base money), summarizes the flow excess supply of money in a managed exchange rate regime. Examining Brazil, Chi...

External Balance in Low Income Countries

External Balance in Low Income Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2009/221

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Lone Engbo Christiansen , Alessandro Prati , Luca Ricci , and Thierry Tressel

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451873689.001

ISBN: 9781451873689

Keywords: real exchange rate, net foreign assets, exchange rate, capital account liberalization, International Lending and Debt Problems,

This paper offers a coherent empirical analysis of the determinants of the real exchange rate, the current account, and the net foreign assets position in low income countries. The paper focuses on indicators speci...

Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes

Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes »

Volume/Issue: 2002/7

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): W. Perraudin , Manmohan Kumar , and Uma Moorthy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2002

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451842425.001

ISBN: 9781451842425

Keywords: emerging market crises, trading strategies, probability, exchange rate, probabilities, foreign exchange, forecasting

This paper assesses the extent to which crashes in emerging market currencies are predictable using simple logit models based on lagged macroeconomic and financial data. To evaluate our model, we calculate trading...

Sustaining Fixed Exchange Rates
			: A Model with Debt and Institutions

Sustaining Fixed Exchange Rates : A Model with Debt and Institutions »

Volume/Issue: 2001/27

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alexander Pitt

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2001

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451844528.001

ISBN: 9781451844528

Keywords: currency attacks, competition policy, financial supervision, exchange rate, capital inflows, fixed exchange rate, capital stock, capital account liberalization, Economic History: Financial Markets and Institutions: General, International

Fixed exchange rate regimes have come into disrepute, as their defense has become all but impossible. Yet, while a determined attack on a currency cannot be prevented or, ultimately, withstood, policies can reduce...