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II The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime

II The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime »

Source: The Design of IMF-Supported Programs

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Charalambos Christofides , Atish Ghosh , Uma Ramakrishnan , Alun Thomas , Laura Papi , Juan Zalduendo , and Jun Kim

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 September 2005

ISBN: 9781589061934

Keywords: current account, current account balance, inflation, capital account, balance of payments

Given the primacy of external adjustment and macroeconomic stability in IMF-supported programs, a natural starting point is the exchange rate regime. In particular, a flexible exchange rate can allow for mor...

II What Causes Balance of Payments Crises?

II What Causes Balance of Payments Crises? »

Source: Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems : The Role of Early Warning Systems

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , Andrew Berg , Gian Milesi-Ferretti , and Eduardo Borensztein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2000

ISBN: 9781557758286

Keywords: currency crises, probability, balance of payments, contagion, currency crisis

The sudden collapse of exchange rate pegs in the absence of an immediate major change in economic fundamentals can seem a clear proof of irrationality in foreign exchange markets. An important contribution o...

III External Viability

III External Viability »

Source: The Design of IMF-Supported Programs

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Charalambos Christofides , Atish Ghosh , Uma Ramakrishnan , Alun Thomas , Laura Papi , Juan Zalduendo , and Jun Kim

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 September 2005

ISBN: 9781589061934

Keywords: current account, current account balance, inflation, capital account, balance of payments

IMF resources are made available to member countries to correct balance of payments imbalances while easing the burden of adjustment (Box 2.3). An obvious starting point for judging program success is theref...

III Issues in the Design of Early Warning Systems

III Issues in the Design of Early Warning Systems »

Source: Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems : The Role of Early Warning Systems

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , Andrew Berg , Gian Milesi-Ferretti , and Eduardo Borensztein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2000

ISBN: 9781557758286

Keywords: currency crises, probability, balance of payments, contagion, currency crisis

Much of the empirical work on currency crises has been aimed at characterizing the stylized facts in periods leading up to crises (event studies) or testing particular models of crises. Event studies, which...

III Monetary Policy

III Monetary Policy »

Source: The Design of IMF-Supported Programs

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Charalambos Christofides , Atish Ghosh , Uma Ramakrishnan , Alun Thomas , Laura Papi , Juan Zalduendo , and Jun Kim

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 September 2005

ISBN: 9781589061934

Keywords: current account, current account balance, inflation, capital account, balance of payments

Beyond the exchange rate (and, under flexible exchange rates, the monetary) regime, the authorities must also specify the monetary stance under their IMF-supported economic programs. This section therefore d...

III Performance of Analytical Frameworks and Program Design

III Performance of Analytical Frameworks and Program Design »

Source: The Design of IMF-Supported Programs

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Charalambos Christofides , Atish Ghosh , Uma Ramakrishnan , Alun Thomas , Laura Papi , Juan Zalduendo , and Jun Kim

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 September 2005

ISBN: 9781589061934

Keywords: current account, current account balance, inflation, capital account, balance of payments

The preceding discussion outlined the processes and analytical tools that national authorities—and IMF country teams in advising them—use to formulate policies in IMF-supported programs. This section seeks t...

IV Conclusions

IV Conclusions »

Source: The Design of IMF-Supported Programs

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Charalambos Christofides , Atish Ghosh , Uma Ramakrishnan , Alun Thomas , Laura Papi , Juan Zalduendo , and Jun Kim

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 September 2005

ISBN: 9781589061934

Keywords: current account, current account balance, inflation, capital account, balance of payments

In recent years, the circumstances under which members seek IMF support have evolved considerably, raising the question of whether the process of policy formulation and program design remains appropriate and...

IV Fiscal Policy

IV Fiscal Policy »

Source: The Design of IMF-Supported Programs

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Charalambos Christofides , Atish Ghosh , Uma Ramakrishnan , Alun Thomas , Laura Papi , Juan Zalduendo , and Jun Kim

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 September 2005

ISBN: 9781589061934

Keywords: current account, current account balance, inflation, capital account, balance of payments

Fiscal adjustment often forms a key element of IMF-supported programs for a variety of reasons, including the need to foster orderly external adjustment, to underpin disinflation and macroeconomic stabilizat...

IV How Well Do the Models Perform?

IV How Well Do the Models Perform? »

Source: Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems : The Role of Early Warning Systems

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , Andrew Berg , Gian Milesi-Ferretti , and Eduardo Borensztein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2000

ISBN: 9781557758286

Keywords: currency crises, probability, balance of payments, contagion, currency crisis

Recent work claiming success in predicting crises has concentrated almost exclusively on in-sample prediction. 23 There is an important danger in focusing on this type of evaluati...

IV Other Macroeconomic Objectives

IV Other Macroeconomic Objectives »

Source: The Design of IMF-Supported Programs

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Charalambos Christofides , Atish Ghosh , Uma Ramakrishnan , Alun Thomas , Laura Papi , Juan Zalduendo , and Jun Kim

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 September 2005

ISBN: 9781589061934

Keywords: current account, current account balance, inflation, capital account, balance of payments

External adjustment is only one objective—albeit a crucial one—of IMF-supported programs. National authorities, in formulating their reform or adjustment program, may have a variety of other macroeconomic ob...