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Fiscal Monitor, April 2019

Curbing Corruption

The April 2019 edition of Fiscal Monitor is focused on two broad themes: fiscal policy in a fast-changing global economy and curbing corruption.

Global Financial Stability Report, April 2019

Vulnerabilities in a Maturing Credit Cycle

The April 2019 GFSR finds that despite significant variability over the past two quarters, financial conditions remain accommodative.

Fatal Attraction
			: A New Measure of Contagion

Fatal Attraction : A New Measure of Contagion »

Volume/Issue: 2003/80

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tamim Bayoumi , Manmohan Kumar , Giorgio Fazio , and Ronald MacDonald

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451850321.001

ISBN: 9781451850321

Keywords: Contagion, international capital flows, emerging market crises, correlations, correlation, currency crises, asian crisis, International Lending and Debt Problems,

This paper proposes a new measure of contagion that is good at anticipating future vulnerabilities. Building on previous work, it uses correlations of equity markets across countries to measure contagion, but in a...

Foreign Banks in Emerging Market Crises
			: Evidence From Malaysia

Foreign Banks in Emerging Market Crises : Evidence From Malaysia »

Volume/Issue: 2004/129

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Enrica Detragiache , and Poonam Gupta

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2004

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451855142.001

ISBN: 9781451855142

Keywords: Emerging market banks, banking, domestic banks, foreign bank, banking system, Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation,

Foreign banks have greatly increased their presence in emerging market countries in recent years. This paper compares the performance of domestic banks and a long-established group of foreign banks during the recen...

Foreign Participation in Emerging Markets' Local Currency Bond Markets

Foreign Participation in Emerging Markets' Local Currency Bond Markets »

Volume/Issue: 2010/88

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Shanaka Peiris

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451982602.001

ISBN: 9781451982602

Keywords: Emerging Market Economies, bond, bond yields, government bond, government bond yields,

This paper estimates the impact of foreign participation in determining long-term local currency government bond yields and volatility in a group of emerging markets from 2000-2009. The results of a panel data anal...

Have Institutional Investors Destabilized Emerging Markets?

Have Institutional Investors Destabilized Emerging Markets? »

Volume/Issue: 1996/34

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Brian Aitken

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 1996

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451978889.001

ISBN: 9781451978889

Keywords: institutional investors, stock markets, emerging market stocks, stock prices, international finance

In the past few years there has been a large increase in portfolio capital flows into emerging markets, mostly fueled by mutual funds and other institutional investors. Based on a simple variance ratio test, this p...

How Intensive Is Competition in the Emerging Markets? An Analysis of Corporate Rates of Return from Nine Emerging Markets

How Intensive Is Competition in the Emerging Markets? An Analysis of Corporate Rates of Return from Nine Emerging Markets »

Volume/Issue: 1999/32

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ajit Singh , Rudolph Matthias , and Jack Glen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 1999

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451845099.001

ISBN: 9781451845099

Keywords: Corporate Rates of Return, Intensity of Competition, Emerging Markets, standard deviation, equation, statistic

This large empirical study of corporate profitability in emerging markets during the 1980s and 1990s measures the intensity of competition. Data on corporate rates of return, profit margins, and output-capital rati...

Non-Linear Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Emerging Markets

Non-Linear Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Emerging Markets »

Volume/Issue: 2016/1

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francesca Caselli , and Agustin Roitman

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 January 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513578262.001

ISBN: 9781513578262

Keywords: Non-Linearities, exchange rate, depreciation, inflation targeting, exchange rate movements, Models with Panel Data, General, All Countries,, Exchange rate pass-through, Foreign exchange

This paper estimates exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in emerging markets focusing on non-linearities and asymmetries. We document non-linearities and asymmetries in the transmission of exchange rate f...

Patterns of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets
			: A Theoretical Perspective

Patterns of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets : A Theoretical Perspective »

Volume/Issue: 1997/13

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Zhaohui Chen , and Mohsin Khan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 1997

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451924947.001

ISBN: 9781451924947

Keywords: Capital flows, emerging markets, cost of financing, contract and regulation, fdi, capital inflows, portfolio investment, equity flows

This paper reviews some of the basic patterns of international capital flows to emerging markets in recent years, including the composition of capital flows, intraregional flow patterns, and the geographical distri...

Policy Responses to External Imbalances in Emerging Market Economies
			: Further Empirical Results

Policy Responses to External Imbalances in Emerging Market Economies : Further Empirical Results »

Volume/Issue: 1998/103

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Luis Carranza , and Chorng-Huey Wong

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 1998

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451948189.001

ISBN: 9781451948189

Keywords: capital inflows, emerging market economies, external imbalances, policy designs, causality test, current account, capital account, current account balance, current account deficits

A bivariate vector-autoregression (VAR) model is used to test causal relations between the current account and the capital account in four emerging market economies. The results show that high capital mobility coul...

Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes

Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes »

Volume/Issue: 2002/7

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): W. Perraudin , Manmohan Kumar , and Uma Moorthy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2002

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451842425.001

ISBN: 9781451842425

Keywords: emerging market crises, trading strategies, probability, exchange rate, probabilities, foreign exchange, forecasting

This paper assesses the extent to which crashes in emerging market currencies are predictable using simple logit models based on lagged macroeconomic and financial data. To evaluate our model, we calculate trading...

Shock Therapy! What Role for Thai Monetary Policy?

Shock Therapy! What Role for Thai Monetary Policy? »

Volume/Issue: 2012/269

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Harun Alp , and Selim Elekdag

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 November 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475542851.001

ISBN: 9781475542851

Keywords: financial accelerator, Bayesian estimation, DSGE model, global financial crisis, Thai floods, emerging markets, exchange rate, inflation, exchange rate regime, emerging markets.

Thailand had to endure three major shocks during 2008-2011: the global financial crisis, the Japanese earthquake, and the Thai floods of 2011. Over this period, consistent with its inflation targeting framework, th...