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Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems
			: The Role of Early Warning Systems

Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems : The Role of Early Warning Systems »

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , Andrew Berg , Gian Milesi-Ferretti , and Eduardo Borensztein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2000

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781557758286.084

ISBN: 9781557758286

Keywords: currency crises, probability, balance of payments, contagion, currency crisis

Recent years have witnessed an increase in the frequency of currency and balance of payments crises in developing countries. More important, the crises have become more virulent, have caused widespread disruption t...

Back Matter

Back Matter »

Source: Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems : The Role of Early Warning Systems

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , Andrew Berg , Gian Milesi-Ferretti , and Eduardo Borensztein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2000

ISBN: 9781557758286

Keywords: currency crises, probability, balance of payments, contagion, currency crisis

Recent years have witnessed an increase in the frequency of currency and balance of payments crises in developing countries. More important, the crises have become more virulent, have caused widespread disruption t...

Front Matter

Front Matter »

Source: Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems : The Role of Early Warning Systems

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , Andrew Berg , Gian Milesi-Ferretti , and Eduardo Borensztein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2000

ISBN: 9781557758286

Keywords: currency crises, probability, balance of payments, contagion, currency crisis

Recent years have witnessed an increase in the frequency of currency and balance of payments crises in developing countries. More important, the crises have become more virulent, have caused widespread disruption t...

Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia

Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia »

Source: Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia : A Case Study in the Asian Currency Crisis

Volume/Issue: 2000/60

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sweta Saxena , and Valerie Cerra

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2000

ISBN: 9781451848045

Keywords: Economic models, Financial crisis, Indonesia, Currency crisis, Contagion, Markov-switching models, probability, probabilities, asian crisis, equation

This paper investigates whether Indonesia's recent currency crisis was due to domestic fundamentals, common external shocks ('monsoons'), or contagion from neighboring countries. Markov-switching models attribute s...

Currency Crises and Foreign Reserves

Currency Crises and Foreign Reserves »

Source: Currency Crises and Foreign Reserves : A Simple Model

Volume/Issue: 2001/18

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Piti Disyatat

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2001

ISBN: 9781451843644

Keywords: Currency Crisis, Speculative Attacks, Borrowing Reserves, capital controls, external borrowing, central bank, domestic currency, Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General

This paper addresses the important question of how far a government will run down its stock of foreign reserves in a defense of a fixed exchange rate. An optimizing model of currency crisis is presented in which th...

Currency Crises and the Real Economy

Currency Crises and the Real Economy »

Source: Currency Crises and the Real Economy : The Role of Banks

Volume/Issue: 2001/49

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Piti Disyatat

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2001

ISBN: 9781451846843

Keywords: currency crisis, foreign currency debt, balance sheet, banking, balance sheet effect, banking sector, currency crises, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Monetary Policy, Central Banking

This paper shows that the quality of banks within each country is one of the important factors that can account for the fact that developing economies tend to suffer more severe output contractions in the wake of a...

Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies

Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies »

Source: Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies : A Comparative Empirical Treatment

Volume/Issue: 2005/13

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Thomson Fontaine

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2005

ISBN: 9781451860320

Keywords: exchange rate, contagion, currency crisis, fixed exchange rate, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper takes a step in empirically testing the implications of a number of theoretical models that attempt to highlight the dynamics behind currency crises. By focusing on countries with broadly disparate econo...

Currency Crisis and Contagion

Currency Crisis and Contagion »

Source: Currency Crisis and Contagion : Evidence From Exchange Rates and Sectoral Stock Indices of the Philippines and Thailand

Volume/Issue: 2000/39

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jun Nagayasu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2000

ISBN: 9781451845822

Keywords: Financial crisis, Exchange rates, Philippines, Thailand, Asian financial crisis, contagion, stock indices, currency crisis, currency crises, stock index

This paper analyzes empirically the recent Asian financial crisis using high frequency data of exchange rates and stock indices of the Philippines and Thailand. Utilizing standard time-series techniques, this study...

Currency Speculation and the Optimum Control of Bank Lending in Singapore Dollar

Currency Speculation and the Optimum Control of Bank Lending in Singapore Dollar »

Source: Currency Speculation and the Optimum Control of Bank Lending in Singapore Dollar : A Case for Partial Liberalization

Volume/Issue: 1996/95

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kenneth Chan , and Kee Ngiam

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 1996

ISBN: 9781451950472

Keywords: exchange rate, foreign exchange, financial markets, exchange rate volatility, currency crisis

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has a long-standing policy of controlling bank lending in Singapore dollars to nonresidents and to residents who use the funds outside Singapore. While the control may prev...

Discriminating Contagion

Discriminating Contagion »

Source: Discriminating Contagion : An Alternative Explanation of Contagious Currency Crises in Emerging Markets

Volume/Issue: 2000/14

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Pavan Ahluwalia

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2000

ISBN: 9781451843118

Keywords: Economic models, Emerging markets, Financial crisis, Exchange rates, Balance of payments, Contagion, currency crisis, balance-of-payments, exchange rate, speculative

This paper shows that a country's vulnerability to contagious crises depends on the visible similarities between that country and other countries that are experiencing crises. A country is vulnerable to shifts in i...