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Are Currency Crises Predictable?1

Are Currency Crises Predictable?1 »

Source: Are Currency Crises Predictable?

Volume/Issue: 1997/159

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rodrigo Valdes , and Ilan Goldfajn

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 1997

ISBN: 9781451857634

Keywords: exchange rate, overvaluation, real exchange rate, currency crises, nominal exchange rate

This paper studies whether exchange rate expectations and overvaluations are predictors of currency crises. The results suggest that overvaluation has predictive power in explaining crises. However, although expect...

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test »

Source: Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Volume/Issue: 1998/154

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , and Andrew Berg

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 1998

ISBN: 9781451857207

Keywords: Currency crises, vulnerability indicators, Asian crisis, balance of payments crises, crisis prediction, probability, probabilities, correlation, crisis index, predictions

This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been...

Are Emerging Market Countries Learning to Float?

Are Emerging Market Countries Learning to Float? »

Source: Are Emerging Market Countries Learning to Float?

Volume/Issue: 2005/98

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Dalia Hakura

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2005

ISBN: 9781451861174

Keywords: Learning to float, monetary and financial policy frameworks, exchange rate, exchange rate regimes, flexible exchange rate, flexible exchange rate regimes, financial liberalization, International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions,

The paper finds that exchange rate flexibility in emerging market countries has increased over the past decade. This "learning to float" appears to have involved a strengthening of monetary and financial policy fra...

Asean Bond Market Development

Asean Bond Market Development »

Source: Asean Bond Market Development : Where Does it Stand? Where is it Going?

Volume/Issue: 2011/137

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mahmood Pradhan , Shanaka Peiris , Mangal Goswami , Dulani Seneviratne , Joshua Felman , Andreas Jobst , and Simon Gray

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2011

ISBN: 9781455265428

Keywords: ASEAN, market development, bond market, capital inflows, securities, capital markets, General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium: General, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Financial Aspects of Economic Integration, Market Structure And Pricing

Since the Asian crisis, ASEAN5 countries have expended considerable effort in trying to develop their domestic bond markets. Yet today these markets are not much larger, relative to GDP, than they were a decade bef...

ASEAN Financial Integration1 2

ASEAN Financial Integration1 2 »

Source: ASEAN Financial Integration

Volume/Issue: 2015/34

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Geert Almekinders , Alex Mourmouras , Jianping Zhou , Satoshi Fukuda , and Yong Sarah Zhou

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 February 2015

ISBN: 9781484386491

Keywords: Economic growth, Cross country analysis, Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Capital flows, Capital account liberalization, Economic integration, Financial integration, Indonesia

The establishment of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) at end-2015 has brought into sharp focus the issue of financial and economic integration in the region. This paper takes stock of ASEAN's financial integratio...

The Asia Crisis

The Asia Crisis »

Source: The Asia Crisis : Causes, Policy Responses, and Outcomes

Volume/Issue: 1999/138

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andrew Berg

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 1999

ISBN: 9781451855968

Keywords: Asia crisis, interest rates and exchange rates, currency crises, balance of payments crises, exchange rate, banking, banking system, exchange rates, foreign exchange

This paper tells the story of the Asian financial crisis by addressing four questions: What were the causes of the crisis, how did the crisis unfold, what were the policy responses, and what have been the outcomes?...

Asia’s Quest for Inclusive Growth Revisited

Asia’s Quest for Inclusive Growth Revisited »

Source: Asia's Quest for Inclusive Growth Revisited

Volume/Issue: 2015/42

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Chie Aoyagi , and Giovanni Ganelli

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 February 2015

ISBN: 9781498340144

Keywords: inequality, growth, poverty, gini index, Equity, Justice, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement, Economic Growth of Open Economies, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development,

Despite the rapid economic growth and poverty reduction, inequality in Asia worsened during last two decades. We focus on the determinants of growth inclusiveness and suggest options for reform. A cross cross-count...

Assessing Countries’ Financial Inclusion Standing - A New Composite Index

Assessing Countries’ Financial Inclusion Standing - A New Composite Index »

Source: Assessing Countries' Financial Inclusion Standing - A New Composite Index

Volume/Issue: 2014/36

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Goran Amidži? , Alexander Massara , and André Mialou

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 February 2014

ISBN: 9781475569681

Keywords: Financial inclusion, access and usage of financial services, factor analysis, index, banking, microfinance, Index Numbers and Aggregation, Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data

This paper leverages the IMF's Financial Access Survey (FAS) database to construct a new composite index of financial inclusion. The topic of financial inclusion has gathered significant attention in recent years....

Assessing Early Warning Systems

Assessing Early Warning Systems »

Source: Assessing Early Warning Systems : How Have they Worked in Practice?

Volume/Issue: 2004/52

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andrew Berg , Eduardo Borensztein , and Catherine Pattillo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2004

ISBN: 9781451847284

Keywords: vulnerability indicators, crisis prediction, forecasting accuracy, balance of payments crisis, probability, predictions, currency crisis, probabilities, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork...

Assessing Fiscal Sustainability

Assessing Fiscal Sustainability »

Source: Assessing Fiscal Sustainability : A Cross-Country Comparison

Volume/Issue: 2003/145

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Enzo Croce , and V. Juan-Ramon

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2003

ISBN: 9781451856569

Keywords: convergence, fiscal rule, public debt, debt ratio, fiscal stance, National Government Expenditures and Related Policies, National Budget, Deficit, and Debt,

To monitor fiscal sustainability, this paper proposes a recursive algorithm derived from the law of motion of the debt-to-GDP ratio, subject to a government reaction function that links convergence to the targeted...