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Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test »

Source: Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Volume/Issue: 1998/154

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , and Andrew Berg

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 1998

ISBN: 9781451857207

Keywords: Currency crises, vulnerability indicators, Asian crisis, balance of payments crises, crisis prediction, probability, probabilities, correlation, crisis index, predictions

This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been...

Assessing Fiscal Sustainability

Assessing Fiscal Sustainability »

Source: Assessing Fiscal Sustainability : A Cross-Country Comparison

Volume/Issue: 2003/145

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Enzo Croce , and V. Juan-Ramon

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2003

ISBN: 9781451856569

Keywords: convergence, fiscal rule, public debt, debt ratio, fiscal stance, National Government Expenditures and Related Policies, National Budget, Deficit, and Debt,

To monitor fiscal sustainability, this paper proposes a recursive algorithm derived from the law of motion of the debt-to-GDP ratio, subject to a government reaction function that links convergence to the targeted...

The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime and Monetary Target in Highly Dollarized Economies

The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime and Monetary Target in Highly Dollarized Economies »

Source: The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime and Monetary Target in Highly Dollarized Economies

Volume/Issue: 2000/29

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Eduardo Borensztein , and Andrew Berg

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2000

ISBN: 9781451844795

Keywords: exchange rates, financial programming, money demand, exchange rate, inflation, monetary aggregates

We examine the implications of high degrees of dollarization for the choice of exchange rate regime and the information content of various monetary aggregates in developing countries. We conclude that a high degree...

The Composition and Cyclical Behavior of Trade Flows in Emerging Economies1

The Composition and Cyclical Behavior of Trade Flows in Emerging Economies1 »

Source: The Composition and Cyclical Behavior of Trade Flows in Emerging Economies

Volume/Issue: 2010/46

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Reinout De Bock

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2010

ISBN: 9781451963106

Keywords: International business cycles, Emerging economy, Trade balance, capital good, open economy, trade flows, investment goods, Open Economy Macroeconomics,

Trade flows data show that the composition and cyclical properties of imports are similar in developed economies and emerging markets (EM) but this is not the case for exports. Unlike developed economies, (i) EM ex...

The Demand for Money in Developing Countries

The Demand for Money in Developing Countries »

Source: The Demand for Money in Developing Countries : Assessing the Role of Financial innovation

Volume/Issue: 1991/45

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jose De Gregorio , Peter Wickham , Patricio Arrau , and Carmen Reinhart

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 1991

ISBN: 9781451974218

Keywords: money demand, equation, cointegration, inflation

Traditional specifications of money demand have been commonly plagued by persistent overprediction, implausible parameter estimates, and highly autocorrelated errors. This paper argues that some of those problems s...

The Duration of Capital Account Crises-An Empirical Analysis

The Duration of Capital Account Crises-An Empirical Analysis »

Source: The Duration of Capital Account Crises-An Empirical Analysis

Volume/Issue: 2007/258

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): David Hofman , Ruben Atoyan , Dimitri Tzanninis , and Mauro Mecagni

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2007

ISBN: 9781451868210

Keywords: Capital account crises, duration, crises identification, capital outflows, capital flows, current account,

This paper examines the duration of capital account crises. We develop a new index to identify both the start and the end of these crises. Applying the index to a sample of 18 crisis episodes, we derive stylized fa...

Fatal Attraction

Fatal Attraction »

Source: Fatal Attraction : A New Measure of Contagion

Volume/Issue: 2003/80

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tamim Bayoumi , Manmohan Kumar , Giorgio Fazio , and Ronald MacDonald

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2003

ISBN: 9781451850321

Keywords: Contagion, international capital flows, emerging market crises, correlations, correlation, currency crises, asian crisis, International Lending and Debt Problems,

This paper proposes a new measure of contagion that is good at anticipating future vulnerabilities. Building on previous work, it uses correlations of equity markets across countries to measure contagion, but in a...

Financial Crises  Explanations, Types, and Implications

Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications »

Source: Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications

Volume/Issue: 2013/28

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Stijn Claessens , and Ayhan Kose

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 January 2013

ISBN: 9781475561005

Keywords: debt crises, defaults, policy implications, financial restructuring, asset booms, crises prediction, International Business Cycles, General, crises prediction.,

This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlig...

Front-Loaded or Back-Loaded Fiscal Adjustments

Front-Loaded or Back-Loaded Fiscal Adjustments »

Source: Front-Loaded or Back-Loaded Fiscal Adjustments : What Works in Emerging Market Economies?

Volume/Issue: 2004/157

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Benedict Clements , Sanjeev Gupta , Emanuele Baldacci , and Carlos Mulas-Granados

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2004

ISBN: 9781451857528

Keywords: fiscal consolidations, fiscal adjustments, fiscal sustainability, probability, statistics, Duration Analysis, Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: General,

This paper investigates the political and economic determinants of successful fiscal adjustment in 25 emerging market economies from 1980 to 2001. The results show that large and back-loaded fiscal adjustments have...

Global Moral Hazard, Capital Account Liberalization and the 'Overlending Syndrome'

Global Moral Hazard, Capital Account Liberalization and the 'Overlending Syndrome' »

Source: Global Moral Hazard, Capital Account Liberalization and the 'Overlending Syndrome'

Volume/Issue: 1999/100

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Eduardo Levy Yeyati

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 1999

ISBN: 9781451852387

Keywords: Banking Crises, Capital Account Liberalization, Deposit Insurance, Moral Hazard, international capital, deposit rates, international capital markets

The removal of government guarantees in borrowing countries does not eliminate the moral hazard problem posed by the existence of deposit guarantees in lender countries. The paper shows that, after restrictions on...