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Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test »

Source: Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Volume/Issue: 1998/154

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , and Andrew Berg

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 1998

ISBN: 9781451857207

Keywords: Currency crises, vulnerability indicators, Asian crisis, balance of payments crises, crisis prediction, probability, probabilities, correlation, crisis index, predictions

This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been...

Assessing Fiscal Sustainability

Assessing Fiscal Sustainability »

Source: Assessing Fiscal Sustainability : A Cross-Country Comparison

Volume/Issue: 2003/145

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Enzo Croce , and V. Juan-Ramon

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2003

ISBN: 9781451856569

Keywords: convergence, fiscal rule, public debt, debt ratio, fiscal stance, National Government Expenditures and Related Policies, National Budget, Deficit, and Debt,

To monitor fiscal sustainability, this paper proposes a recursive algorithm derived from the law of motion of the debt-to-GDP ratio, subject to a government reaction function that links convergence to the targeted...

The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime and Monetary Target in Highly Dollarized Economies

The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime and Monetary Target in Highly Dollarized Economies »

Source: The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime and Monetary Target in Highly Dollarized Economies

Volume/Issue: 2000/29

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Eduardo Borensztein , and Andrew Berg

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2000

ISBN: 9781451844795

Keywords: exchange rates, financial programming, money demand, exchange rate, inflation, monetary aggregates

We examine the implications of high degrees of dollarization for the choice of exchange rate regime and the information content of various monetary aggregates in developing countries. We conclude that a high degree...

The Composition and Cyclical Behavior of Trade Flows in Emerging Economies1

The Composition and Cyclical Behavior of Trade Flows in Emerging Economies1 »

Source: The Composition and Cyclical Behavior of Trade Flows in Emerging Economies

Volume/Issue: 2010/46

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Reinout De Bock

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2010

ISBN: 9781451963106

Keywords: International business cycles, Emerging economy, Trade balance, capital good, open economy, trade flows, investment goods, Open Economy Macroeconomics,

Trade flows data show that the composition and cyclical properties of imports are similar in developed economies and emerging markets (EM) but this is not the case for exports. Unlike developed economies, (i) EM ex...

Corruption, Growth, and Public Finances1

Corruption, Growth, and Public Finances1 »

Source: Corruption, Growth, and Public Finances

Volume/Issue: 2000/182

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Vito Tanzi , and Hamid Davoodi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2000

ISBN: 9781451859256

Keywords: growth, bribes, tax structure, tax system, tax revenues, tax evasion, tax inspectors

The paper discusses some channels through which corruption affects growth such as the impact of corruption on enterprises, on the allocation of talent, and on investment. It also discusses the impact of corruption...

Cross-Border Listings, Capital Controls, and U.S. Equity Flows to Emerging Markets

Cross-Border Listings, Capital Controls, and U.S. Equity Flows to Emerging Markets »

Source: Cross-Border Listings, Capital Controls, and U.S. Equity Flows to Emerging Markets

Volume/Issue: 2003/236

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Hali Edison , and Francis Warnock

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2003

ISBN: 9781451875706

Keywords: portfolio equity flows, ADRs, equity flows, capital controls, foreign ownership, capital inflows, and ADRs,

We analyze capital flows to emerging markets in a framework that incorporates two quantitative measures of financial integration, the intensity of capital controls and the extent of cross border listings, while con...

Cross-Country Empirical Studies of Systemic Bank Distress

Cross-Country Empirical Studies of Systemic Bank Distress »

Source: Cross-Country Empirical Studies of Systemic Bank Distress : A Survey

Volume/Issue: 2005/96

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Asli Demirgüç-Kunt , and Enrica Detragiache

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2005

ISBN: 9781451861150

Keywords: financial fragility, banking, banking crisis, deposit insurance, bank fragility, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy,

A rapidly growing empirical literature is studying the causes and consequences of bank fragility in present-day economies. The paper reviews the two basic methodologies adopted in cross-country empirical studies-th...

Currency Crises

Currency Crises »

Source: Currency Crises : In Search of Common Elements

Volume/Issue: 2000/67

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ranil Salgado , Jahangir Aziz , and Francesco Caramazza

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2000

ISBN: 9781451848892

Keywords: Currency Crises, outliers, banking crises, standard deviations, standard deviation

The paper seeks to identify common characteristics among a variety of macroeconomic and financial variables for a large sample of currency crises in industrial countries and emerging market economies. It covers cri...

Debt Maturity and the International Financial Architecture

Debt Maturity and the International Financial Architecture »

Source: Debt Maturity and the International Financial Architecture

Volume/Issue: 2004/137

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Olivier Jeanne

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2004

ISBN: 9781451855944

Keywords: debt contract, international financial architecture, debt contracts, International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions, International Lending and Debt Problems, Short-term Debt, Collective Action Clause, International Bankruptcy Court,

This paper presents a theory of the maturity of international sovereign debt and derives its implications for the reform of the international financial architecture. It presents a general equilibrium model in which...

The Demand for Money in Developing Countries

The Demand for Money in Developing Countries »

Source: The Demand for Money in Developing Countries : Assessing the Role of Financial innovation

Volume/Issue: 1991/45

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jose De Gregorio , Peter Wickham , Patricio Arrau , and Carmen Reinhart

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 1991

ISBN: 9781451974218

Keywords: money demand, equation, cointegration, inflation

Traditional specifications of money demand have been commonly plagued by persistent overprediction, implausible parameter estimates, and highly autocorrelated errors. This paper argues that some of those problems s...