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Global Financial Stability Report, April 2019

Vulnerabilities in a Maturing Credit Cycle

The April 2019 GFSR finds that despite significant variability over the past two quarters, financial conditions remain accommodative.

The END

The END »

Source: The END : A New Indicator of Financial and Nonfinancial Corporate Sector Vulnerability

Volume/Issue: 2005/231

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jorge Chan-Lau , and Toni Gravelle

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2005

ISBN: 9781451862508

Keywords: Corporate Vulnerability, Default Probability, probability, probabilities, correlation, International Finance: General,

This paper describes a corporate sector vulnerability indicator, the expected number of defaults (END), based on the joint occurrence of defaults among a number of firms and/or institutions. The END indicator is ge...

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test »

Source: Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Volume/Issue: 1998/154

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , and Andrew Berg

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 1998

ISBN: 9781451857207

Keywords: Currency crises, vulnerability indicators, Asian crisis, balance of payments crises, crisis prediction, probability, probabilities, correlation, crisis index, predictions

This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been...

The Contingent Claims Approach to Corporate Vulnerability Analysis

The Contingent Claims Approach to Corporate Vulnerability Analysis »

Source: The Contingent Claims Approach to Corporate Vulnerability Analysis : Estimating Default Risk and Economy-Wide Risk Transfer

Volume/Issue: 2004/121

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yingbin Xiao , Dale Gray , Cheng Lim , and Michael Gapen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2004

ISBN: 9781451854411

Keywords: Contingent claims approach, Corporate sector vulnerability, financial sector, option pricing, capital markets, hedging, international capital markets, Contigent claims approach,

In this paper, we examine the ability of the contingent claims approach (CCA) to identify corporate sector and economy-wide vulnerabilities. We apply the Moody's MfRisk model, which uses aggregated CCA principles,...

Assessing Early Warning Systems

Assessing Early Warning Systems »

Source: Assessing Early Warning Systems : How Have they Worked in Practice?

Volume/Issue: 2004/52

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andrew Berg , Eduardo Borensztein , and Catherine Pattillo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2004

ISBN: 9781451847284

Keywords: vulnerability indicators, crisis prediction, forecasting accuracy, balance of payments crisis, probability, predictions, currency crisis, probabilities, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork...

Why Was Asia Resilient? Lessons from the Past and for the Future

Why Was Asia Resilient? Lessons from the Past and for the Future »

Source: Why Was Asia Resilient? Lessons from the Past and for the Future

Volume/Issue: 2014/38

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Phakawa Jeasakul , Cheng Lim , and Erik Lundback

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 February 2014

ISBN: 9781475540284

Keywords: Global financial crisis, resilience, financial and external vulnerabilities, banking, banking crisis, banking system, bank capital, loan classification, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Asia including Middle East,

Asia proved to be remarkably resilient in the face of the global financial crisis, but why was its output performance stronger than that of other regions? The paper shows that better initial conditions-in the form...

The Impact of the Great Recession on Emerging Markets

The Impact of the Great Recession on Emerging Markets »

Source: The Impact of the Great Recession on Emerging Markets

Volume/Issue: 2010/237

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ferhan Salman , Mali Chivakul , and Ricardo Llaudes

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2010

ISBN: 9781455209378

Keywords: global crisis, vulnerabilities, linkages, pre-crisis, current account, external debt, short-term debt, credit booms, Global Outlook, International Policy Coordination and Transmission

This paper examines the impact of the recent global crisis on emerging market economies (EMs). Our cross-country analysis shows that the impact of the crisis was more pronounced in those EMs that had initial weaker...

The Role of Corporate, Legal and Macroeconomic Balance Sheet Indicators in Crisis Detection and Prevention

The Role of Corporate, Legal and Macroeconomic Balance Sheet Indicators in Crisis Detection and Prevention »

Source: The Role of Corporate, Legal and Macroeconomic Balance Sheet Indicators in Crisis Detection and Prevention

Volume/Issue: 2002/59

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Manuel De la Rocha , Roberto Perrelli , and Christian Mulder

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2002

ISBN: 9781451847956

Keywords: External Vulnerability, Balance Sheet Effects, Corporate Sector, short-term debt, pre-crisis, currency crisis, International Lending and Debt Problems, International Policy Coordination and Transmission, General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation, Corporate Indicators

This study tests the recent balance sheet explanations of external crises in emerging market countries and the role of standards in these crises. Using several unique data sets, it finds that corporate sector balan...

The END
			: A New Indicator of Financial and Nonfinancial Corporate Sector Vulnerability

The END : A New Indicator of Financial and Nonfinancial Corporate Sector Vulnerability »

Volume/Issue: 2005/231

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jorge Chan-Lau , and Toni Gravelle

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2005

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451862508.001

ISBN: 9781451862508

Keywords: Corporate Vulnerability, Default Probability, probability, probabilities, correlation, International Finance: General,

This paper describes a corporate sector vulnerability indicator, the expected number of defaults (END), based on the joint occurrence of defaults among a number of firms and/or institutions. The END indicator is ge...

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test »

Volume/Issue: 1998/154

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , and Andrew Berg

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 1998

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451857207.001

ISBN: 9781451857207

Keywords: Currency crises, vulnerability indicators, Asian crisis, balance of payments crises, crisis prediction, probability, probabilities, correlation, crisis index, predictions

This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been...

The Contingent Claims Approach to Corporate Vulnerability Analysis
			: Estimating Default Risk and Economy-Wide Risk Transfer

The Contingent Claims Approach to Corporate Vulnerability Analysis : Estimating Default Risk and Economy-Wide Risk Transfer »

Volume/Issue: 2004/121

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yingbin Xiao , Dale Gray , Cheng Lim , and Michael Gapen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2004

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451854411.001

ISBN: 9781451854411

Keywords: Contingent claims approach, Corporate sector vulnerability, financial sector, option pricing, capital markets, hedging, international capital markets, Contigent claims approach,

In this paper, we examine the ability of the contingent claims approach (CCA) to identify corporate sector and economy-wide vulnerabilities. We apply the Moody's MfRisk model, which uses aggregated CCA principles,...