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World Economic Outlook, April 2018

Cyclical Upswing, Structural Change

The upswing in global investment and trade continued in the second half of 2017, but medium-term risks point to challenges for future growth.

World Economic Outlook, October 2017

Seeking Sustainable Growth: Short-Term Recovery, Long-Term Challenges

The global upswing in economic activity is strengthening, providing policymakers an opportunity to build resilience against downside risks.

Regional Economic Outlook, October 2016, Middle East and Central Asia

Regional Economic Outlook, October 2016, Middle East and Central Asia »

Series: Regional Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 October 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513534497.086

ISBN: 9781513534497

Keywords: cheaper oil, global spillovers, China’;s rebalancing, fiscal deficits

This issue focuses on the ongoing adjustment to cheaper oil and subdued economic activity for oil-producing countries, as well as the weak and fragile recovery in the Caucasus and Central Asia region. It also discu...

Spillovers from Japan's Unconventional Monetary Policy to Emerging Asia

Spillovers from Japan's Unconventional Monetary Policy to Emerging Asia »

Source: Spillovers from Japan's Unconventional Monetary Policy to Emerging Asia : a Global VAR approach

Volume/Issue: 2016/99

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Giovanni Ganelli , and Nour Tawk

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 May 2016

ISBN: 9781484361689

Keywords: QQE; Spillovers; Emerging Asia; Japan

We use a Global VAR model to study spillovers from the Bank of Japan's quantitative and qualitative easing (QQE) on emerging Asia.1 Our main result is that, despite an appreciation of their currencies vis-à-vis the...

Asian Flu or Wall Street Virus? Price and Volatility Spillovers of the Tech and Non-Tech Sectors in the United States and Asia

Asian Flu or Wall Street Virus? Price and Volatility Spillovers of the Tech and Non-Tech Sectors in the United States and Asia »

Source: Asian Flu or Wall Street Virus? Price and Volatility Spillovers of the Tech and Non-Tech Sectors in the United States and Asia

Volume/Issue: 2002/154

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jorge Chan-Lau , and Iryna Ivaschenko

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2002

ISBN: 9781451857245

Keywords: Price spillovers, volatility spillovers, asymmetric GARCH models, spillovers, stock market, stock returns, stock price,

This paper, using T-GARCH models, finds that the United States has been the major source of price and volatility spillovers to stock markets in the Asian region during three different periods in the last decade: th...

China's Growing Influence on Asian Financial Markets1

China's Growing Influence on Asian Financial Markets1 »

Source: China's Growing Influence on Asian Financial Markets

Volume/Issue: 2016/173

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Serkan Arslanalp , Wei Liao , Shi Piao , and Dulani Seneviratne

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 August 2016

ISBN: 9781475525137

Keywords: China, Spillovers, Equity markets, Foreign Exchange Markets

This paper finds that financial spillovers from China to regional markets are on the rise. The main transmission channel appears to be trade linkages, although direct financial linkages are playing an increasing ro...

Sources of Contagion

Sources of Contagion »

Source: Sources of Contagion : Finance or Trade?

Volume/Issue: 1999/146

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 1999

ISBN: 9781451856620

Keywords: Contagion, currency crisis, financial spillovers, competition, financial contagion

This paper presents evidence that spillovers through bank lending, as opposed to trade linkages and country characteristics, can help explain contagion. We construct a measure of competition for bank funds and find...

Contagion

Contagion »

Source: Contagion : Monsoonal Effects, Spillovers, and Jumps Between Multiple Equilibria

Volume/Issue: 1998/142

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Masson

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 1998

ISBN: 9781451856224

Keywords: contagion, spillovers, multiple equilibria, currency crises, debt crisis, competitiveness

Several concepts of contagion are distinguished. It is argued that only models that admit of multiple equilibria are capable of producing true contagion. A simple balance of payments model is presented to illustrat...

Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises

Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises »

Source: Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises

Volume/Issue: 2000/55

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ranil Salgado , Luca Ricci , and Francesco Caramazza

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2000

ISBN: 9781451847611

Keywords: Currency crises, emerging markets, contagion, trade and financial spillovers, exchange rate, asian crisis, crisis country

This paper investigates empirically the relevance of external, domestic, and financial weaknesses as well as trade and financial linkages in inducing financial crises for a sample of 61 emerging market and industri...

Dynamic Connectedness of Asian Equity Markets

Dynamic Connectedness of Asian Equity Markets »

Source: Dynamic Connectedness of Asian Equity Markets

Volume/Issue: 2016/57

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Roberto Guimarães-Filho , and Gee Hee Hong

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 March 2016

ISBN: 9781513572451

Keywords: financial spillovers, Asia financial integration, financial linkages, stock market, equity, markets, market, returns, equity returns, General,

Understanding how markets are connected and shocks are transmitted is an important issue for policymakers and market participants. In this paper, we examine the connectedness of Asian equity markets within the regi...

Spillovers Through Banking Centers

Spillovers Through Banking Centers »

Source: Spillovers Through Banking Centers : A Panel Data Analysis

Volume/Issue: 2000/88

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2000

ISBN: 9781451851151

Keywords: Contagion, Currency Crisis, Financial Spillovers, bank claims, asian crisis, bank lending

To test the role of bank lending in transmitting currency crisis we examine a panel of BIS data on bank flows to 30 emerging markets disaggregated by 11 banking centers. We find that bank exposures to a crisis coun...

Spillovers from China's Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies

Spillovers from China's Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies »

Source: Spillovers from China's Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies

Volume/Issue: 2016/170

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Allan Dizioli , Jaime Guajardo , Vladimir Klyuev , Rui Mano , and Mehdi Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 August 2016

ISBN: 9781475524260

Keywords: China’;s slowdown and rebalancing, international business cycle, spillovers, Global VAR, Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM), ASEAN-5.

After many years of rapid expansion, China's growth is slowing to more sustainable levels and is rebalancing, with consumption becoming the main growth driver. This transition is likely to have negative effects on...