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Inflation Reports and Models

Inflation Reports and Models »

Source: Inflation Reports and Models : How Well Do Central Banks Really Write?

Volume/Issue: 2014/91

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ales Bulir , Jaromír Hurník , and Katerina Smidkova

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 May 2014

ISBN: 9781498387613

Keywords: Kalman filter, monetary policy communication, inflation, central bank, aggregate demand, Forecasting and Simulation, Forecasting and Simulation,

We offer a novel methodology for assessing the quality of inflation reports. In contrast to the existing literature, which mostly evaluates the formal quality of these reports, we evaluate their economic content by...

Pricing and Hedging of Contingent Credit Lines

Pricing and Hedging of Contingent Credit Lines »

Source: Pricing and Hedging of Contingent Credit Lines

Volume/Issue: 2006/13

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Elena Loukoianova , Salih Neftci , and Sunil Sharma

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2006

ISBN: 9781451862737

Keywords: Contingent credit line (CCL), pricing, credit line, credit lines, bond, hedge, Simulation Methods,

Contingent credit lines (CCLs) are widely used in bank lending and also play an important role in the functioning of short-term capital markets. Yet, their pricing and hedging has not received much attention in the...

Export Spillovers from Global Shocks for the Middle East and Central Asia

Export Spillovers from Global Shocks for the Middle East and Central Asia »

Source: Export Spillovers from Global Shocks for the Middle East and Central Asia

Volume/Issue: 2014/80

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alberto Behar , and Jaime Espinosa-Bowen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 May 2014

ISBN: 9781484380796

Keywords: Gravity model, Caucasus, oil exports, oil exporters, exporters, services exports, exporter, Trade Forecasting and Simulation, International Business Cycles,

This paper quantifies the effect of realized and potential global growth disappointments on export volumes from the Middle East, North Africa, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Estimates of export elasticities with r...

A Macro-Model Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting for Vietnam

A Macro-Model Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting for Vietnam »

Source: A Macro-Model Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting for Vietnam

Volume/Issue: 2015/273

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Allan Dizioli , and Jochen M. Schmittmann

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 December 2015

ISBN: 9781513595665

Keywords: Bayesian Estimation, exchange rate, interest rates, monetary policy rule, central bank, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects),

The paper develops a small New-Keynesian FPAS model for Vietnam. The model closely matches actual data from 2000-2014. We derive an optimal monetary policy rule that minimizes variability of output, inflation, and...

Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies

Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies »

Source: Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies : A Comparative Empirical Treatment

Volume/Issue: 2005/13

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Thomson Fontaine

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2005

ISBN: 9781451860320

Keywords: exchange rate, contagion, currency crisis, fixed exchange rate, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper takes a step in empirically testing the implications of a number of theoretical models that attempt to highlight the dynamics behind currency crises. By focusing on countries with broadly disparate econo...

Misalignment and Managed Exchange Rates

Misalignment and Managed Exchange Rates »

Source: Misalignment and Managed Exchange Rates : An Application to the Thai Baht

Volume/Issue: 2000/63

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): G. Lim

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2000

ISBN: 9781451848410

Keywords: Real exchange rate, misalignment, managed exchange rate system, time-series analysis, simulations, exchange rate, equation, cointegration, Thai Baht,

This paper proposes a methodology for analyzing dynamic misalignment in managed exchange rate systems that combines the estimation approach to modeling the real exchange rate with the calibration approach to genera...

Global Food Price Inflation and Policy Responses in Central Asia

Global Food Price Inflation and Policy Responses in Central Asia »

Source: Global Food Price Inflation and Policy Responses in Central Asia

Volume/Issue: 2012/86

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2012

ISBN: 9781475502497

Keywords: central bank, monetary fund, price stability, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation, Kyrgyzstan, Food Price Shocks, Policy Responses,

This paper examines the implications of elevated global food prices for inflation in select Central Asian economies - Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The findings suggest that global fo...

Forecasting Thailand's Core Inflation

Forecasting Thailand's Core Inflation »

Source: Forecasting Thailand's Core Inflation

Volume/Issue: 2004/90

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tao Sun

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2004

ISBN: 9781451851427

Keywords: Core Inflation, cointegration, statistics, equation, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper develops an approach for forecasting in Thailand core inflation. The key innovation is to anchor the projections derived from the short-term time-series properties of core inflation to its longer-run evo...

Assessing Corporate Vulnerabilities in Indonesia

Assessing Corporate Vulnerabilities in Indonesia »

Source: Assessing Corporate Vulnerabilities in Indonesia : A Bottom-Up Default Analysis

Volume/Issue: 2017/97

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jorge Chan-Lau , Weimin Miao , Ken Miyajima , and Jongsoon Shin

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 April 2017

ISBN: 9781475595130

Keywords: Indonesia, Corporate sector, Asia and Pacific, bottom-up default analysis, default risk, scenario analysis, simulation, hazard rate models, Model Evaluation and Testing, General

Under adverse macroeconomic conditions, the potential realization of corporate sector vulnerabilities could pose major risks to the economy. This paper assesses corporate vulnerabilities in Indonesia by using a Bot...

Default, Credit Growth, and Asset Prices

Default, Credit Growth, and Asset Prices »

Source: Default, Credit Growth, and Asset Prices

Volume/Issue: 2006/223

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): C. Goodhart , Miguel Segoviano Basurto , and Boris Hofmann

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2006

ISBN: 9781451864830

Keywords: Probability of default, macroeconomic shocks, financial surveillance, banking, bank lending, probability, Econometric Modeling: General, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation

This paper uses a Merton-type estimate of the probability of default (PoD) for the main banks in a sample of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and middle-income countries as a proxy for the frag...