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Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems
			: The Role of Early Warning Systems

Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems : The Role of Early Warning Systems »

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , Andrew Berg , Gian Milesi-Ferretti , and Eduardo Borensztein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2000

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781557758286.084

ISBN: 9781557758286

Keywords: currency crises, probability, balance of payments, contagion, currency crisis

Recent years have witnessed an increase in the frequency of currency and balance of payments crises in developing countries. More important, the crises have become more virulent, have caused widespread disruption t...

The END

The END »

Source: The END : A New Indicator of Financial and Nonfinancial Corporate Sector Vulnerability

Volume/Issue: 2005/231

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jorge Chan-Lau , and Toni Gravelle

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2005

ISBN: 9781451862508

Keywords: Corporate Vulnerability, Default Probability, probability, probabilities, correlation, International Finance: General,

This paper describes a corporate sector vulnerability indicator, the expected number of defaults (END), based on the joint occurrence of defaults among a number of firms and/or institutions. The END indicator is ge...

Monitoring Banking Sector Fragility

Monitoring Banking Sector Fragility »

Source: Monitoring Banking Sector Fragility : A Multivariate Logit Approach

Volume/Issue: 1999/147

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Enrica Detragiache , and Asli Demirgüç-Kunt

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 1999

ISBN: 9781451856712

Keywords: Banking crises, bank fragility, monitoring, probability, banking, probabilities, banking crisis

This paper explores how a multivariate logit empirical model of banking crisis probabilities can be used to monitor banking sector fragility. The proposed approach relies on readily available data, and the fragilit...

Testing a Disequilibrium Model of Lending Rate Determination

Testing a Disequilibrium Model of Lending Rate Determination »

Source: Testing a Disequilibrium Model of Lending Rate Determination : The Case of Malaysia

Volume/Issue: 1991/84

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Barry Scholnick

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 1991

ISBN: 9781451954364

Keywords: cointegration, equation, banking, probability, statistics

This study examines whether lending rates cleared the market for loans in Malaysia after interest rate liberalization. It is based on a theoretical model in which adverse selection and marginal cost pricing are bro...

Market-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities and its Application to Financial Market Surveillance

Market-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities and its Application to Financial Market Surveillance »

Source: Market-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities and its Application to Financial Market Surveillance

Volume/Issue: 2006/104

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jorge Chan-Lau

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2006

ISBN: 9781451863642

Keywords: Default probability, security prices, financial surveillance, probabilities, probability, bond, equation, credit derivatives,

This paper reviews a number of different techniques for estimating default probabilities from the prices of publicly traded securities. These techniques are useful for assessing credit exposure, systemic risk, and...

Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes

Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes »

Source: Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes

Volume/Issue: 2002/7

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): W. Perraudin , Manmohan Kumar , and Uma Moorthy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2002

ISBN: 9781451842425

Keywords: emerging market crises, trading strategies, probability, exchange rate, probabilities, foreign exchange, forecasting

This paper assesses the extent to which crashes in emerging market currencies are predictable using simple logit models based on lagged macroeconomic and financial data. To evaluate our model, we calculate trading...

Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia

Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia »

Source: Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia : A Case Study in the Asian Currency Crisis

Volume/Issue: 2000/60

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sweta Saxena , and Valerie Cerra

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2000

ISBN: 9781451848045

Keywords: Currency crisis, Contagion, Markov-switching models, probability, probabilities, asian crisis, equation

This paper investigates whether Indonesia’s recent currency crisis was due to domestic fundamentals, common external shocks (“monsoons”), or contagion from neighboring countries. Markov-switchi...

An Econometric Analysis of Countries’ Repayment Performance to the International Monetary Fund

An Econometric Analysis of Countries’ Repayment Performance to the International Monetary Fund »

Source: An Econometric Analysis of Countries' Repayment Performance to the International Monetary Fund

Volume/Issue: 1998/32

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Lynn Aylward , and Rupert Thorne

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 1998

ISBN: 9781451979893

Keywords: external debt, debt service, probability, repayments, type 1 error

While the literature on external debt repayment performance by sovereign debtors is extensive, repayment performance vis-à-vis the International Monetary Fund has not been dealt with separately. Given differ...

An Option-Based Approach to Bank Vulnerabilities in Emerging Markets1

An Option-Based Approach to Bank Vulnerabilities in Emerging Markets1 »

Source: An Option-Based Approach to Bank Vulnerabilities in Emerging Markets

Volume/Issue: 2004/33

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Arnaud Jobert , Janet Kong , and Jorge Chan-Lau

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2004

ISBN: 9781451845211

Keywords: Distance-to-default, forecasting, banking, correlation, bank distress, probability,

We measure bank vulnerability in emerging markets using the distance-to-default, a risk-neutral indicator based on Merton's (1974) structural model of credit risk. The indicator is estimated using equity prices and...

Singapore

Singapore »

Source: Singapore : Selected Issues

Volume/Issue: 2008/281

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 August 2008

ISBN: 9781451834284

Keywords: regional banks, banking system, probability of default, banking stability

This Selected Issues paper assesses the stability of Singapore's banking system in a regional context. It proposes a novel methodology for gauging domestic financial stability. The paper assesses the impact of fisc...