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Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test »

Source: Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Volume/Issue: 1998/154

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , and Andrew Berg

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 1998

ISBN: 9781451857207

Keywords: Currency crises, vulnerability indicators, Asian crisis, balance of payments crises, crisis prediction, probability, probabilities, correlation, crisis index, predictions

This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been...

Financial Crises  Explanations, Types, and Implications

Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications »

Source: Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications

Volume/Issue: 2013/28

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Stijn Claessens , and Ayhan Kose

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 January 2013

ISBN: 9781475561005

Keywords: debt crises, defaults, policy implications, financial restructuring, asset booms, crises prediction, International Business Cycles, General, crises prediction.,

This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlig...

Assessing Early Warning Systems

Assessing Early Warning Systems »

Source: Assessing Early Warning Systems : How Have they Worked in Practice?

Volume/Issue: 2004/52

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andrew Berg , Eduardo Borensztein , and Catherine Pattillo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2004

ISBN: 9781451847284

Keywords: vulnerability indicators, crisis prediction, forecasting accuracy, balance of payments crisis, probability, predictions, currency crisis, probabilities, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork...

Give Trust a Chance-A Model of Trust in the Context of an IMF-Supported Program

Give Trust a Chance-A Model of Trust in the Context of an IMF-Supported Program »

Source: Give Trust a Chance-A Model of Trust in the Context of an IMF-Supported Program

Volume/Issue: 2007/42

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Daouda Sembene

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2007

ISBN: 9781451866063

Keywords: Trust, IMF-supported Program, Program design and implementation, Negotiation, paper, probability, predictability, survey, predictions,

This paper is an attempt to identify the determinants of trust between country authorities and IMF staff in the context of an IMF-supported program. Using an outcomes-based definition of trust, a game-theoretic mod...

Portfolio Diversification, Leverage, and Financial Contagion

Portfolio Diversification, Leverage, and Financial Contagion »

Source: Portfolio Diversification, Leverage, and Financial Contagion

Volume/Issue: 1999/136

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): T. Smith , and Garry Schinasi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 1999

ISBN: 9781451855791

Keywords: financial contagion, portfolio choice, leverage, portfolio management, correlation, portfolio manager, covariance, predictions

Models of “contagion” rely on market imperfections to explain why adverse shocks in one asset market might be associated with asset sales in many unrelated markets. This paper demonstrates that contag...

Currency Crises and Uncertainty About Fundamentals

Currency Crises and Uncertainty About Fundamentals »

Source: Currency Crises and Uncertainty About Fundamentals

Volume/Issue: 2002/3

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): M. Sbracia , and Alessandro Prati

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2002

ISBN: 9781451841916

Keywords: Speculative attack, exchange rate crisis, public and private information, exchange rate, exchange rate pressures, probability, equation, predictions, Asymmetric and Private Information,

This paper studies how uncertainty about fundamentals contributed to currency crises from both a theoretical and an empirical perspective. We find evidenceCbased on a monthly dataset of Consensus forecasts for six...

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test »

Volume/Issue: 1998/154

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , and Andrew Berg

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 1998

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451857207.001

ISBN: 9781451857207

Keywords: Currency crises, vulnerability indicators, Asian crisis, balance of payments crises, crisis prediction, probability, probabilities, correlation, crisis index, predictions

This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been...

Financial Crises  Explanations, Types, and Implications

Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications »

Volume/Issue: 2013/28

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Stijn Claessens , and Ayhan Kose

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 January 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475561005.001

ISBN: 9781475561005

Keywords: debt crises, defaults, policy implications, financial restructuring, asset booms, crises prediction, International Business Cycles, General, crises prediction.,

This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlig...

Assessing Early Warning Systems
			: How Have they Worked in Practice?

Assessing Early Warning Systems : How Have they Worked in Practice? »

Volume/Issue: 2004/52

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andrew Berg , Eduardo Borensztein , and Catherine Pattillo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2004

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451847284.001

ISBN: 9781451847284

Keywords: vulnerability indicators, crisis prediction, forecasting accuracy, balance of payments crisis, probability, predictions, currency crisis, probabilities, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork...

Give Trust a Chance-A Model of Trust in the Context of an IMF-Supported Program

Give Trust a Chance-A Model of Trust in the Context of an IMF-Supported Program »

Volume/Issue: 2007/42

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Daouda Sembene

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2007

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451866063.001

ISBN: 9781451866063

Keywords: Trust, IMF-supported Program, Program design and implementation, Negotiation, paper, probability, predictability, survey, predictions,

This paper is an attempt to identify the determinants of trust between country authorities and IMF staff in the context of an IMF-supported program. Using an outcomes-based definition of trust, a game-theoretic mod...