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Regional Economic Outlook, October 2014, Middle East and Central Asia,

Regional Economic Outlook, October 2014, Middle East and Central Asia, »

Series: Regional Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 October 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498343732.086

ISBN: 9781498343732

Keywords: Cross country analysis, Economic forecasting, Economic cooperation, Economic growth, Economic conditions, Afghanistan, Economic integration, Middle East and Central Asia, North Africa, Oil exporting countries

This issue discusses economic developments in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP), which continue to reflect the diversity of conditions prevailing across the region. Most high-income o...

Growth Forecast Errors and  Fiscal Multipliers

Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers »

Source: Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers

Volume/Issue: 2013/1

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Olivier Blanchard , and Daniel Leigh

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 January 2013

ISBN: 9781475576443

Keywords: government expenditure, output fluctuations, fiscal consolidation, fiscal multipliers, growth forecast, fiscal balance, General, General, Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits

This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated...

Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs

Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs »

Source: Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs

Volume/Issue: 2001/45

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Steven Phillips , and Alberto Musso

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2001

ISBN: 9781451846478

Keywords: Economic growth, Balance of payments, Inflation, Fund, Fund-supported adjustment programs, IMF, programs, projections, forecasts, statistics

'Program numbers' from a sample of IMF-supported programs are studied as if they were forecasts, through statistical analyses of the relationship between projections and outcomes for growth, inflation, and three ba...

Modeling with Limited Data

Modeling with Limited Data »

Source: Modeling with Limited Data : Estimating Potential Growth in Cambodia

Volume/Issue: 2012/96

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2012

ISBN: 9781475502862

Keywords: growth diagnostics, export diversification, fixed capital formation, factor accumulation, output growth, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation, One

This paper proposes a framework to analyze long-term potential growth that combines a simple quantitative model with an investigative approach of ‘growth diagnostics'. The framework is used to forecast potential gr...

Emerging Asia's Impact on Australian Growth

Emerging Asia's Impact on Australian Growth »

Source: Emerging Asia's Impact on Australian Growth : Some Insights From GEM

Volume/Issue: 2010/262

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Benjamin Hunt

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2010

ISBN: 9781455210695

Keywords: Emerging Asia, Productivity Growth, Rebalancing, exchange rates, exchange rate, real exchange rates, tradable goods, Economic Growth of Open Economies, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation, One

Over the last decade, GDP growth in emerging Asia was roughly twice as fast as average world growth. The IMF's Global Economy Model (GEM) is used to estimate the impact that emerging Asia's growth differential has...

Are the Asia and Pacific Small States Different from Other Small States?

Are the Asia and Pacific Small States Different from Other Small States? »

Source: Are the Asia and Pacific Small States Different from Other Small States?

Volume/Issue: 2013/123

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Patrizia Tumbarello , Ezequiel Cabezon , and Yiqun Wu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 May 2013

ISBN: 9781484339190

Keywords: micro states, Pacific islands, growth, volatility, terms of trade, trade openness, current account balance, external shocks, trade deficits, Open Economy Macroeconomics

The small states of the Asia and Pacific region face unique challenges in raising their growth potential and living standards relative to other small states due to their small populations, geographical isolation an...

A Quantitative Assessment of Financial Conditions in Asia

A Quantitative Assessment of Financial Conditions in Asia »

Source: A Quantitative Assessment of Financial Conditions in Asia

Volume/Issue: 2011/170

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Carolina Osorio Buitron , Filiz Unsal , and Runchana Pongsaparn

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2011

ISBN: 9781462314331

Keywords: Financial sector, Economic growth, Economic conditions, Asia, Forecasting models, Gross domestic product, Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009, Financial conditions index, VAR, Dynamic Factor Analysis

We propose a new Financial Condition Index (FCI) for Asian economies based on two different methodologies: a VAR model and a Dynamic Factor Model. The paper shows that this index has predictive power in forecasting...

Caucasus and Central Asia

Caucasus and Central Asia »

Source: Regional Economic Outlook, October 2014, Middle East and Central Asia,

Series: Regional Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 October 2014

ISBN: 9781498343732

Keywords: Cross country analysis, Economic forecasting, Economic cooperation, Economic growth, Economic conditions, Afghanistan, Economic integration, Middle East and Central Asia, North Africa, Oil exporting countries

Population, millions (2013) GDP per capita, U.S. dollars (2013) Sources: IMF, Regional Economic Outlook database; and Microso...

3. Caucasus and Central Asia: Increased Risks Highlight Need for Reform

3. Caucasus and Central Asia: Increased Risks Highlight Need for Reform »

Source: Regional Economic Outlook, October 2014, Middle East and Central Asia,

Series: Regional Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 October 2014

ISBN: 9781498343732

Keywords: Cross country analysis, Economic forecasting, Economic cooperation, Economic growth, Economic conditions, Afghanistan, Economic integration, Middle East and Central Asia, North Africa, Oil exporting countries

Economic growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) is expected to decline from 6.6 percent in 2013 to about 5.5 percent in 2014–15. The forecast is ¾ percentage point weaker...

Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs

Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs »

Volume/Issue: 2001/45

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Steven Phillips , and Alberto Musso

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2001

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451846478.001

ISBN: 9781451846478

Keywords: Economic growth, Balance of payments, Inflation, Fund, Fund-supported adjustment programs, IMF, programs, projections, forecasts, statistics

'Program numbers' from a sample of IMF-supported programs are studied as if they were forecasts, through statistical analyses of the relationship between projections and outcomes for growth, inflation, and three ba...