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World Economic Outlook, October 2018

Challenges to Steady Growth

Global growth for 2018-19 is projected to remain steady at its 2017 level, but its pace is less vigorous than projected in April and has become less balanced.

World Economic Outlook, October 2018

Challenges to Steady Growth

Global growth for 2018-19 is projected to remain steady at its 2017 level, but its pace is less vigorous than projected in April and has become less balanced.

IEO Annual Report 2014

IEO Annual Report 2014 »

Series: Independent Evaluation Office Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 August 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498350891.017

ISBN: 9781498350891

Keywords: evaluation, imf, forecasts, monitoring, quality

The 2014 Annual Report of the Independent Evaluation Office of the International Monetary Fund....

Regional Economic Outlook, October 2017, Middle East and Central Asia

Regional Economic Outlook, October 2017, Middle East and Central Asia »

Series: Regional Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484312520.086

ISBN: 9781484312520

Keywords: Oil, Oil exports, economic outlook, economic forecasting, Middle East and Central Asia

Oil exporters in the Middle East and North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region (MENAP) are continuing to adjust to lower oil prices, which have dampened growth and contributed to large fiscal and external defi...

Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation

Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation »

Source: Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation

Volume/Issue: 2010/178

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christopher Crowe

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2010

ISBN: 9781455201891

Keywords: Consensus Forecasts, Information Aggregation, Forecast Efficiency, efficiency, forecast horizons, forecast errors, forecast horizon, forecast error, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation,

Consensus forecasts are inefficient, over-weighting older information already in the public domain at the expense of new private information, when individual forecasters have different information sets. Using a cro...

Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs

Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs »

Source: Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs

Volume/Issue: 2001/45

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Steven Phillips , and Alberto Musso

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2001

ISBN: 9781451846478

Keywords: IMF, programs, projections, forecasts, statistics, statistic, forecasting, samples

“Program numbers” from a sample of IMF-supported programs are studied as if they were forecasts, through statistical analyses of the relationship between projections and outcomes for growth, inflation...

Inflation Targeting and Communication

Inflation Targeting and Communication »

Source: Inflation Targeting and Communication : It Pays Off to Read Inflation Reports

Volume/Issue: 2008/234

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Katerina Smídková , Viktor Kotlán , David Navrátil , and Ales Bulir

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2008

ISBN: 9781451870923

Keywords: inflation, central bank, inflation forecasts

Inflation-targeting central banks have a respectable track record at explaining their policy actions and corresponding inflation outturns. Using a simple forward-looking policy rule and an assessment of inflation r...

Chapter 1. Overview

Chapter 1. Overview »

Source: IEO Annual Report 2014

Series: Independent Evaluation Office Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 August 2014

ISBN: 9781498350891

Keywords: evaluation, imf, forecasts, monitoring, quality

IMF Forecasts: Process, Quality, and Country Perspectives, which was discussed by the Executive Board in February, and Recurring Issues from a Decade of Evaluation: Lessons for the IMF, which is...

Chapter 2. IEO Outputs in FY2014

Chapter 2. IEO Outputs in FY2014 »

Source: IEO Annual Report 2014

Series: Independent Evaluation Office Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 August 2014

ISBN: 9781498350891

Keywords: evaluation, imf, forecasts, monitoring, quality

IMF Forecasts and one on Recurring Issues from a Decade of Evaluation—as well as an update of the 2005 evaluation on IMF Technical Assistance....

Chapter 3. Enhancing the Follow-Up Process for IEO Evaluations

Chapter 3. Enhancing the Follow-Up Process for IEO Evaluations »

Source: IEO Annual Report 2014

Series: Independent Evaluation Office Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 August 2014

ISBN: 9781498350891

Keywords: evaluation, imf, forecasts, monitoring, quality

Under the framework established following the 2006 external evaluation of the IEO, responsibility for follow-up on IEO evaluations was assigned to IMF Management. The IEO’s informal role has primarily been t...

Chapter 4. Looking Ahead: Ongoing Evaluations and the IEO Work Program

Chapter 4. Looking Ahead: Ongoing Evaluations and the IEO Work Program »

Source: IEO Annual Report 2014

Series: Independent Evaluation Office Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 August 2014

ISBN: 9781498350891

Keywords: evaluation, imf, forecasts, monitoring, quality

The IEO is currently working on three evaluations, namely on self-evaluation in the IMF, the IMF’s response to the financial and economic crisis, and statistics. Also underway are two updates of past evaluat...

Inflation Reports and Models

Inflation Reports and Models »

Source: Inflation Reports and Models : How Well Do Central Banks Really Write?

Volume/Issue: 2014/91

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ales Bulir , Jaromír Hurník , and Katerina Smidkova

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 May 2014

ISBN: 9781498387613

Keywords: Kalman filter, monetary policy communication, inflation, central bank, aggregate demand, Forecasting and Simulation, Forecasting and Simulation,

We offer a novel methodology for assessing the quality of inflation reports. In contrast to the existing literature, which mostly evaluates the formal quality of these reports, we evaluate their economic content by...