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Fatal Attraction

Fatal Attraction »

Source: Fatal Attraction : A New Measure of Contagion

Volume/Issue: 2003/80

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tamim Bayoumi , Manmohan Kumar , Giorgio Fazio , and Ronald MacDonald

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2003

ISBN: 9781451850321

Keywords: Contagion, international capital flows, emerging market crises, correlations, correlation, currency crises, asian crisis, International Lending and Debt Problems,

This paper proposes a new measure of contagion that is good at anticipating future vulnerabilities. Building on previous work, it uses correlations of equity markets across countries to measure contagion, but in a...

Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes

Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes »

Source: Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes

Volume/Issue: 2002/7

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): W. Perraudin , Manmohan Kumar , and Uma Moorthy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2002

ISBN: 9781451842425

Keywords: emerging market crises, trading strategies, probability, exchange rate, probabilities, foreign exchange, forecasting

This paper assesses the extent to which crashes in emerging market currencies are predictable using simple logit models based on lagged macroeconomic and financial data. To evaluate our model, we calculate trading...

Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises

Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises »

Source: Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises

Volume/Issue: 2000/55

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ranil Salgado , Luca Ricci , and Francesco Caramazza

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2000

ISBN: 9781451847611

Keywords: Currency crises, emerging markets, contagion, trade and financial spillovers, exchange rate, asian crisis, crisis country

This paper investigates empirically the relevance of external, domestic, and financial weaknesses as well as trade and financial linkages in inducing financial crises for a sample of 61 emerging market and industri...

Discriminating Contagion

Discriminating Contagion »

Source: Discriminating Contagion : An Alternative Explanation of Contagious Currency Crises in Emerging Markets

Volume/Issue: 2000/14

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Pavan Ahluwalia

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2000

ISBN: 9781451843118

Keywords: Economic models, Emerging markets, Financial crisis, Exchange rates, Balance of payments, Contagion, currency crisis, balance-of-payments, exchange rate, speculative

This paper shows that a country's vulnerability to contagious crises depends on the visible similarities between that country and other countries that are experiencing crises. A country is vulnerable to shifts in i...

Pricing Sovereign Debt in Resource-Rich Economies

Pricing Sovereign Debt in Resource-Rich Economies »

Source: Pricing Sovereign Debt in Resource-Rich Economies

Volume/Issue: 2019/240

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Thomas McGregor

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 November 2019

ISBN: 9781513516431

Keywords: Market interest rates, Economic conditions, Financial crises, Real interest rates, Commodity price fluctuations, Risk premium, natural resources, sovereign debt, and default, development

How do oil price movements affect sovereign spreads in an oil-dependent economy? I develop a stochastic general equilibrium model of an economy exposed to co-moving oil price and output processes, with endogenous s...

1. Asia and Pacific’s Outlook: Still Leading Global Growth

1. Asia and Pacific’s Outlook: Still Leading Global Growth »

Source: Regional Economic Outlook, April 2015 : Stabilizing and Outperforming Other Regions

Series: Regional Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 April 2015

ISBN: 9781498339841

Keywords: Regional Economic Outlook, Economic integration, Market economies, Real sector, Development, Financial crises, Regional economics, Economies, inflation, exchange

Asia and Pacific’s position as the growth engine of the world economy has intensified in recent years. While in 2000 the region accounted for less than 30 percent of world output, by 2014 this c...

3. Drivers of Financial Integration: Implications for Asia

3. Drivers of Financial Integration: Implications for Asia »

Source: Regional Economic Outlook, April 2015 : Stabilizing and Outperforming Other Regions

Series: Regional Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 April 2015

ISBN: 9781498339841

Keywords: Regional Economic Outlook, Economic integration, Market economies, Real sector, Development, Financial crises, Regional economics, Economies, inflation, exchange

Introduction and Main Findings Since the Asian financial crisis, Asian policymakers have encouraged greater financial cooperation and integration within the region. Important steps t...

Fatal Attraction
			: A New Measure of Contagion

Fatal Attraction : A New Measure of Contagion »

Volume/Issue: 2003/80

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tamim Bayoumi , Manmohan Kumar , Giorgio Fazio , and Ronald MacDonald

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451850321.001

ISBN: 9781451850321

Keywords: Contagion, international capital flows, emerging market crises, correlations, correlation, currency crises, asian crisis, International Lending and Debt Problems,

This paper proposes a new measure of contagion that is good at anticipating future vulnerabilities. Building on previous work, it uses correlations of equity markets across countries to measure contagion, but in a...

Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes

Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes »

Volume/Issue: 2002/7

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): W. Perraudin , Manmohan Kumar , and Uma Moorthy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2002

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451842425.001

ISBN: 9781451842425

Keywords: emerging market crises, trading strategies, probability, exchange rate, probabilities, foreign exchange, forecasting

This paper assesses the extent to which crashes in emerging market currencies are predictable using simple logit models based on lagged macroeconomic and financial data. To evaluate our model, we calculate trading...

Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises

Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises »

Volume/Issue: 2000/55

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ranil Salgado , Luca Ricci , and Francesco Caramazza

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2000

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451847611.001

ISBN: 9781451847611

Keywords: Currency crises, emerging markets, contagion, trade and financial spillovers, exchange rate, asian crisis, crisis country

This paper investigates empirically the relevance of external, domestic, and financial weaknesses as well as trade and financial linkages in inducing financial crises for a sample of 61 emerging market and industri...