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Fiscal Vulnerability and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies

Fiscal Vulnerability and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies »

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Richard Hemming , Axel Schimmelpfennig , and Michael Kell

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 May 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781589061965.084

ISBN: 9781589061965

Keywords: Emerging markets, fiscal variables, public debt, currency crises, fiscal policy, external debt

Fiscal problems have long been considered a central feature of financial--that is, currency, debt, and banking--crises. This paper addresses four questions: What are the fiscal causes of crises? Which fiscal vulner...

Fatal Attraction

Fatal Attraction »

Source: Fatal Attraction : A New Measure of Contagion

Volume/Issue: 2003/80

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tamim Bayoumi , Manmohan Kumar , Giorgio Fazio , and Ronald MacDonald

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2003

ISBN: 9781451850321

Keywords: Contagion, international capital flows, emerging market crises, correlations, correlation, currency crises, asian crisis, International Lending and Debt Problems,

This paper proposes a new measure of contagion that is good at anticipating future vulnerabilities. Building on previous work, it uses correlations of equity markets across countries to measure contagion, but in a...

Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes

Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes »

Source: Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes

Volume/Issue: 2002/7

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): W. Perraudin , Manmohan Kumar , and Uma Moorthy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2002

ISBN: 9781451842425

Keywords: emerging market crises, trading strategies, probability, exchange rate, probabilities, foreign exchange, forecasting

This paper assesses the extent to which crashes in emerging market currencies are predictable using simple logit models based on lagged macroeconomic and financial data. To evaluate our model, we calculate trading...

Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises

Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises »

Source: Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises

Volume/Issue: 2000/55

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ranil Salgado , Luca Ricci , and Francesco Caramazza

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2000

ISBN: 9781451847611

Keywords: Currency crises, emerging markets, contagion, trade and financial spillovers, exchange rate, asian crisis, crisis country

This paper investigates empirically the relevance of external, domestic, and financial weaknesses as well as trade and financial linkages in inducing financial crises for a sample of 61 emerging market and industri...

I Overview

I Overview »

Source: Fiscal Vulnerability and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Richard Hemming , Axel Schimmelpfennig , and Michael Kell

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 May 2003

ISBN: 9781589061965

Keywords: Emerging markets, fiscal variables, public debt, currency crises, fiscal policy, external debt

Fiscal problems have long been considered a central feature of financial (i.e., currency, debt, and banking) crises. However, fiscal problems received less attention...

II Background

II Background »

Source: Fiscal Vulnerability and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Richard Hemming , Axel Schimmelpfennig , and Michael Kell

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 May 2003

ISBN: 9781589061965

Keywords: Emerging markets, fiscal variables, public debt, currency crises, fiscal policy, external debt

Financial crises in emerging market economies have been the subject of considerable analysis. This section draws on work to date to provide essential background for...

III Data and Event Studies

III Data and Event Studies »

Source: Fiscal Vulnerability and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Richard Hemming , Axel Schimmelpfennig , and Michael Kell

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 May 2003

ISBN: 9781589061965

Keywords: Emerging markets, fiscal variables, public debt, currency crises, fiscal policy, external debt

To examine the empirical relationships between fiscal variables and emerging market crises, a large fiscal dataset was constructed. This section describes the datase...

IV EWS Models and the Severity of Currency Crises

IV EWS Models and the Severity of Currency Crises »

Source: Fiscal Vulnerability and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Richard Hemming , Axel Schimmelpfennig , and Michael Kell

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 May 2003

ISBN: 9781589061965

Keywords: Emerging markets, fiscal variables, public debt, currency crises, fiscal policy, external debt

This section summarizes the results of various statistical and econometric analyses of the dataset described in the previous section. First, the extent to which fisc...

V Case Studies

V Case Studies »

Source: Fiscal Vulnerability and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Richard Hemming , Axel Schimmelpfennig , and Michael Kell

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 May 2003

ISBN: 9781589061965

Keywords: Emerging markets, fiscal variables, public debt, currency crises, fiscal policy, external debt

This section reports the conclusions from case studies of 11 financial crises in emerging market economies in the 1990s. In chronological order, these are Mexico (19...

VI Conclusions

VI Conclusions »

Source: Fiscal Vulnerability and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Richard Hemming , Axel Schimmelpfennig , and Michael Kell

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 May 2003

ISBN: 9781589061965

Keywords: Emerging markets, fiscal variables, public debt, currency crises, fiscal policy, external debt

What Are the Fiscal Causes of Crisis? A review of the theoretical literature suggests three main ways in which fiscal policy can cause a financial crisis. These are through an overly...