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Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems
			: The Role of Early Warning Systems

Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems : The Role of Early Warning Systems »

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , Andrew Berg , Gian Milesi-Ferretti , and Eduardo Borensztein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2000

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781557758286.084

ISBN: 9781557758286

Keywords: currency crises, probability, balance of payments, contagion, currency crisis

Recent years have witnessed an increase in the frequency of currency and balance of payments crises in developing countries. More important, the crises have become more virulent, have caused widespread disruption t...

Speculative Attacks in the Asian Crisis

Speculative Attacks in the Asian Crisis »

Source: Speculative Attacks in the Asian Crisis

Volume/Issue: 2001/189

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Zhiwei Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2001

ISBN: 9781451859614

Keywords: ACH, currency crisis, duration analysis, contagion, speculative attacks, asian crisis, currency crises, equation, Econometric Modeling,

This paper takes the Asian crisis as an example to show that the Autoregressive Conditional Hazard (ACH) model is a powerful tool for studying the time series features of speculative attacks. The ACH model proposes...

Currency Crisis and Contagion

Currency Crisis and Contagion »

Source: Currency Crisis and Contagion : Evidence From Exchange Rates and Sectoral Stock Indices of the Philippines and Thailand

Volume/Issue: 2000/39

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jun Nagayasu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2000

ISBN: 9781451845822

Keywords: Asian financial crisis, contagion, stock indices, currency crisis, currency crises, stock index

This paper analyzes empirically the recent Asian financial crisis using high frequency data of exchange rates and stock indices of the Philippines and Thailand. Utilizing standard time-series techniques, this study...

Contagion

Contagion »

Source: Contagion : Monsoonal Effects, Spillovers, and Jumps Between Multiple Equilibria

Volume/Issue: 1998/142

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Masson

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 1998

ISBN: 9781451856224

Keywords: contagion, spillovers, multiple equilibria, currency crises, debt crisis, competitiveness

Several concepts of contagion are distinguished. It is argued that only models that admit of multiple equilibria are capable of producing true contagion. A simple balance of payments model is presented to illustrat...

Sources of Contagion

Sources of Contagion »

Source: Sources of Contagion : Finance or Trade?

Volume/Issue: 1999/146

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 1999

ISBN: 9781451856620

Keywords: Contagion, currency crisis, financial spillovers, competition, financial contagion

This paper presents evidence that spillovers through bank lending, as opposed to trade linkages and country characteristics, can help explain contagion. We construct a measure of competition for bank funds and find...

The Uncertainty Channel of Contagion

The Uncertainty Channel of Contagion »

Source: The Uncertainty Channel of Contagion

Volume/Issue: 2009/219

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Prakash Kannan , and Fritzi Köhler-Geib

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2009

ISBN: 9781451873665

Keywords: investors, contagion, crisis country, rate of return, currency crises

The 2007 subprime crisis in the U.S. triggered a succession of financial crises around the globe, reigniting interest in the contagion phenomenon. Not all crises, however, are contagious. This paper models a new ch...

The Real Effect of Banking Crises

The Real Effect of Banking Crises »

Source: The Real Effect of Banking Crises

Volume/Issue: 2005/63

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Giovanni Dell'Ariccia , Raghuram Rajan , and Enrica Detragiache

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2005

ISBN: 9781451860825

Keywords: bank lending channel, banking, banking crisis, currency crisis, bank lending, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy,

Banking crises are usually followed by a decline in credit and growth. Is this because crises tend to take place during economic downturns, or do banking sector problems have independent negative effects on the eco...

Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia

Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia »

Source: Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia : A Case Study in the Asian Currency Crisis

Volume/Issue: 2000/60

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sweta Saxena , and Valerie Cerra

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2000

ISBN: 9781451848045

Keywords: Currency crisis, Contagion, Markov-switching models, probability, probabilities, asian crisis, equation

This paper investigates whether Indonesia’s recent currency crisis was due to domestic fundamentals, common external shocks (“monsoons”), or contagion from neighboring countries. Markov-switchi...

Spillovers Through Banking Centers

Spillovers Through Banking Centers »

Source: Spillovers Through Banking Centers : A Panel Data Analysis

Volume/Issue: 2000/88

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2000

ISBN: 9781451851151

Keywords: Contagion, Currency Crisis, Financial Spillovers, bank claims, asian crisis, bank lending

To test the role of bank lending in transmitting currency crisis we examine a panel of BIS data on bank flows to 30 emerging markets disaggregated by 11 banking centers. We find that bank exposures to a crisis coun...

Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises

Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises »

Source: Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises

Volume/Issue: 2000/55

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ranil Salgado , Luca Ricci , and Francesco Caramazza

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2000

ISBN: 9781451847611

Keywords: Currency crises, emerging markets, contagion, trade and financial spillovers, exchange rate, asian crisis, crisis country

This paper investigates empirically the relevance of external, domestic, and financial weaknesses as well as trade and financial linkages in inducing financial crises for a sample of 61 emerging market and industri...