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Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems
			: The Role of Early Warning Systems

Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems : The Role of Early Warning Systems »

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , Andrew Berg , Gian Milesi-Ferretti , and Eduardo Borensztein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2000

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781557758286.084

ISBN: 9781557758286

Keywords: currency crises, probability, balance of payments, contagion, currency crisis

Recent years have witnessed an increase in the frequency of currency and balance of payments crises in developing countries. More important, the crises have become more virulent, have caused widespread disruption t...

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test »

Source: Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

Volume/Issue: 1998/154

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , and Andrew Berg

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 1998

ISBN: 9781451857207

Keywords: Currency crises, vulnerability indicators, Asian crisis, balance of payments crises, crisis prediction, probability, probabilities, correlation, crisis index, predictions

This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been...

I Overview

I Overview »

Source: Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems : The Role of Early Warning Systems

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , Andrew Berg , Gian Milesi-Ferretti , and Eduardo Borensztein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2000

ISBN: 9781557758286

Keywords: currency crises, probability, balance of payments, contagion, currency crisis

Recent years have witnessed an increase in the frequency of currency and balance of payments crises in developing countries. More important, the crises have become more virulent, have caused wide-spread disr...

II What Causes Balance of Payments Crises?

II What Causes Balance of Payments Crises? »

Source: Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems : The Role of Early Warning Systems

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , Andrew Berg , Gian Milesi-Ferretti , and Eduardo Borensztein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2000

ISBN: 9781557758286

Keywords: currency crises, probability, balance of payments, contagion, currency crisis

The sudden collapse of exchange rate pegs in the absence of an immediate major change in economic fundamentals can seem a clear proof of irrationality in foreign exchange markets. An important contribution o...

III Issues in the Design of Early Warning Systems

III Issues in the Design of Early Warning Systems »

Source: Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems : The Role of Early Warning Systems

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , Andrew Berg , Gian Milesi-Ferretti , and Eduardo Borensztein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2000

ISBN: 9781557758286

Keywords: currency crises, probability, balance of payments, contagion, currency crisis

Much of the empirical work on currency crises has been aimed at characterizing the stylized facts in periods leading up to crises (event studies) or testing particular models of crises. Event studies, which...

IV How Well Do the Models Perform?

IV How Well Do the Models Perform? »

Source: Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems : The Role of Early Warning Systems

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , Andrew Berg , Gian Milesi-Ferretti , and Eduardo Borensztein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2000

ISBN: 9781557758286

Keywords: currency crises, probability, balance of payments, contagion, currency crisis

Recent work claiming success in predicting crises has concentrated almost exclusively on in-sample prediction. 23 There is an important danger in focusing on this type of evaluati...

V The Implementation of an Early Warning System

V The Implementation of an Early Warning System »

Source: Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems : The Role of Early Warning Systems

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , Andrew Berg , Gian Milesi-Ferretti , and Eduardo Borensztein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2000

ISBN: 9781557758286

Keywords: currency crises, probability, balance of payments, contagion, currency crisis

While there has been a recent flurry of research on the prediction of currency crises, it is clear that more work needs to be done to better understand their causes and more successfully predict them. The em...

Assessing Early Warning Systems

Assessing Early Warning Systems »

Source: Assessing Early Warning Systems : How Have they Worked in Practice?

Volume/Issue: 2004/52

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andrew Berg , Eduardo Borensztein , and Catherine Pattillo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2004

ISBN: 9781451847284

Keywords: vulnerability indicators, crisis prediction, forecasting accuracy, balance of payments crisis, probability, predictions, currency crisis, probabilities, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork...

Discriminating Contagion

Discriminating Contagion »

Source: Discriminating Contagion : An Alternative Explanation of Contagious Currency Crises in Emerging Markets

Volume/Issue: 2000/14

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Pavan Ahluwalia

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2000

ISBN: 9781451843118

Keywords: Contagion, currency crisis, balance-of-payments, exchange rate, speculative, currency crises, real exchange rate

This paper shows that a country’s vulnerability to contagious crises depends on the visible similarities between that country and other countries that are experiencing crises. A country is vulnerable to shif...

The Asia Crisis

The Asia Crisis »

Source: The Asia Crisis : Causes, Policy Responses, and Outcomes

Volume/Issue: 1999/138

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andrew Berg

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 1999

ISBN: 9781451855968

Keywords: Asia crisis, interest rates and exchange rates, currency crises, balance of payments crises, exchange rate, banking, banking system, exchange rates, foreign exchange

This paper tells the story of the Asian financial crisis by addressing four questions: What were the causes of the crisis, how did the crisis unfold, what were the policy responses, and what have been the outcomes?...