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Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia

Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia »

Source: Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia : A Case Study in the Asian Currency Crisis

Volume/Issue: 2000/60

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sweta Saxena , and Valerie Cerra

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2000

ISBN: 9781451848045

Keywords: Currency crisis, Contagion, Markov-switching models, probability, probabilities, asian crisis, equation

This paper investigates whether Indonesia’s recent currency crisis was due to domestic fundamentals, common external shocks (“monsoons”), or contagion from neighboring countries. Markov-switchi...

Imperfect Information and Saving in a Small Open Economy

Imperfect Information and Saving in a Small Open Economy »

Source: Imperfect Information and Saving in a Small Open Economy

Volume/Issue: 2011/60

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Agustin Roitman , and Christian Daude

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2011

ISBN: 9781455221042

Keywords: saving, uncertainty, Bayesian learning, Markov switching, autocorrelation, stochastic process, correlation, probabilities, statistics, Asymmetric and Private Information,

Emerging markets are more volatile and face different types of shocks, in size and nature, compared to their developed counterparts. Accurate identification of the stochastic properties of shocks is difficult. We s...

Early Warning Systems

Early Warning Systems »

Source: Early Warning Systems : A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach

Volume/Issue: 2003/32

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Abdul Abiad

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2003

ISBN: 9781451845136

Keywords: Currency crisis, early warning system, regime switching, Markov switching, probability, probabilities, currency crises, asian crisis, contagion, Forecasting and Other Model Applications

Previous early-warning systems (EWSs) for currency crises have relied on models that require a priori dating of crises. This paper proposes an alternative EWS, based on a Markov-switching model, which identifies an...

Global Market Conditions and Systemic Risk1

Global Market Conditions and Systemic Risk1 »

Source: Global Market Conditions and Systemic Risk

Volume/Issue: 2009/230

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo , and Heiko Hesse

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2009

ISBN: 9781451873771

Keywords: Global Financial Crises, Subprime Crisis, Volatility, Solvency, Markov-Switching, financial institutions, financial system, contagion, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy,

This paper examines several key global market conditions, such as a proxy for market uncertainty and measures of interbank funding stress, to assess financial volatility and the likelihood of crisis. Using Markov r...

An Investigation of Output Variance Before and During Inflation Targeting

An Investigation of Output Variance Before and During Inflation Targeting »

Source: An Investigation of Output Variance Before and During Inflation Targeting

Volume/Issue: 2001/215

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francisco Nadal De Simone

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2001

ISBN: 9781451875041

Keywords: output variance, Markov-switching, inflation, reduction in inflation, inflation-targeting, Econometric Methods: - Multiple/simultaneous Equation Models, Central Banking, And The Supply Of Money And Credit, macroeconomic Aspects Of International Trade And Finance,

Since Taylor estimated a trade-off between inflation and output variance, it has been widely accepted that efforts to keep the inflation rate “too low and stable” will likely result in relatively larg...

Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia
			: A Case Study in the Asian Currency Crisis

Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia : A Case Study in the Asian Currency Crisis »

Volume/Issue: 2000/60

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sweta Saxena , and Valerie Cerra

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2000

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451848045.001

ISBN: 9781451848045

Keywords: Currency crisis, Contagion, Markov-switching models, probability, probabilities, asian crisis, equation

This paper investigates whether Indonesia’s recent currency crisis was due to domestic fundamentals, common external shocks (“monsoons”), or contagion from neighboring countries. Markov-switchi...

Imperfect Information and Saving in a Small Open Economy

Imperfect Information and Saving in a Small Open Economy »

Volume/Issue: 2011/60

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Agustin Roitman , and Christian Daude

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455221042.001

ISBN: 9781455221042

Keywords: saving, uncertainty, Bayesian learning, Markov switching, autocorrelation, stochastic process, correlation, probabilities, statistics, Asymmetric and Private Information,

Emerging markets are more volatile and face different types of shocks, in size and nature, compared to their developed counterparts. Accurate identification of the stochastic properties of shocks is difficult. We s...

Early Warning Systems
			: A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach

Early Warning Systems : A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach »

Volume/Issue: 2003/32

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Abdul Abiad

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451845136.001

ISBN: 9781451845136

Keywords: Currency crisis, early warning system, regime switching, Markov switching, probability, probabilities, currency crises, asian crisis, contagion, Forecasting and Other Model Applications

Previous early-warning systems (EWSs) for currency crises have relied on models that require a priori dating of crises. This paper proposes an alternative EWS, based on a Markov-switching model, which identifies an...

Global Market Conditions and Systemic Risk

Global Market Conditions and Systemic Risk »

Volume/Issue: 2009/230

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo , and Heiko Hesse

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451873771.001

ISBN: 9781451873771

Keywords: Global Financial Crises, Subprime Crisis, Volatility, Solvency, Markov-Switching, financial institutions, financial system, contagion, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy,

This paper examines several key global market conditions, such as a proxy for market uncertainty and measures of interbank funding stress, to assess financial volatility and the likelihood of crisis. Using Markov r...

An Investigation of Output Variance Before and During Inflation Targeting

An Investigation of Output Variance Before and During Inflation Targeting »

Volume/Issue: 2001/215

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francisco Nadal De Simone

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2001

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451875041.001

ISBN: 9781451875041

Keywords: output variance, Markov-switching, inflation, reduction in inflation, inflation-targeting, Econometric Methods: - Multiple/simultaneous Equation Models, Central Banking, And The Supply Of Money And Credit, macroeconomic Aspects Of International Trade And Finance,

Since Taylor estimated a trade-off between inflation and output variance, it has been widely accepted that efforts to keep the inflation rate “too low and stable” will likely result in relatively larg...