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Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems
			: The Role of Early Warning Systems

Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems : The Role of Early Warning Systems »

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , Andrew Berg , Gian Milesi-Ferretti , and Eduardo Borensztein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2000

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781557758286.084

ISBN: 9781557758286

Keywords: currency crises, probability, balance of payments, contagion, currency crisis

Recent years have witnessed an increase in the frequency of currency and balance of payments crises in developing countries. More important, the crises have become more virulent, have caused widespread disruption t...

Speculative Attacks in the Asian Crisis

Speculative Attacks in the Asian Crisis »

Source: Speculative Attacks in the Asian Crisis

Volume/Issue: 2001/189

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Zhiwei Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2001

ISBN: 9781451859614

Keywords: ACH, currency crisis, duration analysis, contagion, speculative attacks, asian crisis, currency crises, equation, Econometric Modeling,

This paper takes the Asian crisis as an example to show that the Autoregressive Conditional Hazard (ACH) model is a powerful tool for studying the time series features of speculative attacks. The ACH model proposes...

Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia

Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia »

Source: Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia : A Case Study in the Asian Currency Crisis

Volume/Issue: 2000/60

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sweta Saxena , and Valerie Cerra

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2000

ISBN: 9781451848045

Keywords: Economic models, Financial crisis, Indonesia, Currency crisis, Contagion, Markov-switching models, probability, probabilities, asian crisis, equation

This paper investigates whether Indonesia's recent currency crisis was due to domestic fundamentals, common external shocks ('monsoons'), or contagion from neighboring countries. Markov-switching models attribute s...

Currency Crisis and Contagion

Currency Crisis and Contagion »

Source: Currency Crisis and Contagion : Evidence From Exchange Rates and Sectoral Stock Indices of the Philippines and Thailand

Volume/Issue: 2000/39

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jun Nagayasu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2000

ISBN: 9781451845822

Keywords: Financial crisis, Exchange rates, Philippines, Thailand, Asian financial crisis, contagion, stock indices, currency crisis, currency crises, stock index

This paper analyzes empirically the recent Asian financial crisis using high frequency data of exchange rates and stock indices of the Philippines and Thailand. Utilizing standard time-series techniques, this study...

III Issues in the Design of Early Warning Systems

III Issues in the Design of Early Warning Systems »

Source: Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems : The Role of Early Warning Systems

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , Andrew Berg , Gian Milesi-Ferretti , and Eduardo Borensztein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2000

ISBN: 9781557758286

Keywords: currency crises, probability, balance of payments, contagion, currency crisis

Much of the empirical work on currency crises has been aimed at characterizing the stylized facts in periods leading up to crises (event studies) or testing particular models of crises. Event studies, which...

II What Causes Balance of Payments Crises?

II What Causes Balance of Payments Crises? »

Source: Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems : The Role of Early Warning Systems

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , Andrew Berg , Gian Milesi-Ferretti , and Eduardo Borensztein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2000

ISBN: 9781557758286

Keywords: currency crises, probability, balance of payments, contagion, currency crisis

The sudden collapse of exchange rate pegs in the absence of an immediate major change in economic fundamentals can seem a clear proof of irrationality in foreign exchange markets. An important contribution o...

IV How Well Do the Models Perform?

IV How Well Do the Models Perform? »

Source: Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems : The Role of Early Warning Systems

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , Andrew Berg , Gian Milesi-Ferretti , and Eduardo Borensztein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2000

ISBN: 9781557758286

Keywords: currency crises, probability, balance of payments, contagion, currency crisis

Recent work claiming success in predicting crises has concentrated almost exclusively on in-sample prediction. 23 There is an important danger in focusing on this type of evaluati...

V The Implementation of an Early Warning System

V The Implementation of an Early Warning System »

Source: Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems : The Role of Early Warning Systems

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , Andrew Berg , Gian Milesi-Ferretti , and Eduardo Borensztein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2000

ISBN: 9781557758286

Keywords: currency crises, probability, balance of payments, contagion, currency crisis

While there has been a recent flurry of research on the prediction of currency crises, it is clear that more work needs to be done to better understand their causes and more successfully predict them. The em...

I Overview

I Overview »

Source: Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems : The Role of Early Warning Systems

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , Andrew Berg , Gian Milesi-Ferretti , and Eduardo Borensztein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2000

ISBN: 9781557758286

Keywords: currency crises, probability, balance of payments, contagion, currency crisis

Recent years have witnessed an increase in the frequency of currency and balance of payments crises in developing countries. More important, the crises have become more virulent, have caused wide-spread disr...

The Uncertainty Channel of Contagion

The Uncertainty Channel of Contagion »

Source: The Uncertainty Channel of Contagion

Volume/Issue: 2009/219

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Prakash Kannan , and Fritzi Köhler-Geib

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2009

ISBN: 9781451873665

Keywords: investors, contagion, crisis country, rate of return, currency crises

The 2007 subprime crisis in the U.S. triggered a succession of financial crises around the globe, reigniting interest in the contagion phenomenon. Not all crises, however, are contagious. This paper models a new ch...