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Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems
			: The Role of Early Warning Systems

Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems : The Role of Early Warning Systems »

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , Andrew Berg , Gian Milesi-Ferretti , and Eduardo Borensztein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2000

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781557758286.084

ISBN: 9781557758286

Keywords: currency crises, probability, balance of payments, contagion, currency crisis

Recent years have witnessed an increase in the frequency of currency and balance of payments crises in developing countries. More important, the crises have become more virulent, have caused widespread disruption t...

Country Insurance
			: The Role of Domestic Policies

Country Insurance : The Role of Domestic Policies »

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Paolo Mauro , Torbjorn Becker , Jonathan Ostry , Romain Ranciere , and Olivier Jeanne

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 April 2007

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781589066076.084

ISBN: 9781589066076

Keywords: Insurance supervision, Insurance legislation, Insurance regulations, bonds, international reserves, domestic currency, currency crises, international financial

...

Fiscal Vulnerability and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies

Fiscal Vulnerability and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies »

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Richard Hemming , Axel Schimmelpfennig , and Michael Kell

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 May 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781589061965.084

ISBN: 9781589061965

Keywords: Emerging markets, fiscal variables, public debt, currency crises, fiscal policy, external debt

Fiscal problems have long been considered a central feature of financial--that is, currency, debt, and banking--crises. This paper addresses four questions: What are the fiscal causes of crises? Which fiscal vulner...

The Challenge of Predicting Economic Crises

The Challenge of Predicting Economic Crises »

Series: Economic Issues

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , and Andrew Berg

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 September 2000

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781557758842.051

ISBN: 9781557758842

Keywords: early warning, warning system, early warning system, financial markets, currency crises

The integration of financial markets around the world over the past decade has posed new challenges for policymakers. The speed with which money can be switched in and out of currencies and countries has increased...

Currency Crises

Currency Crises »

Source: Currency Crises : In Search of Common Elements

Volume/Issue: 2000/67

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ranil Salgado , Jahangir Aziz , and Francesco Caramazza

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2000

ISBN: 9781451848892

Keywords: Currency Crises, outliers, banking crises, standard deviations, standard deviation

The paper seeks to identify common characteristics among a variety of macroeconomic and financial variables for a large sample of currency crises in industrial countries and emerging market economies. It covers cri...

Currency and Banking Crises

Currency and Banking Crises »

Source: Currency and Banking Crises : The Early Warnings of Distress

Volume/Issue: 1999/178

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Graciela Kaminsky

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 1999

ISBN: 9781451858938

Keywords: Early Warnings, Currency Crises, Banking Crises, banking, financial crises, banking crisis

The abruptness and virulence of the 1997 Asian crises have led many to claim that these crises are of a new breed and were thus unforecastable. This paper examines 102 financial crises in 20 countries and concludes...

L'art difficile de prévoir les crises économiques

L'art difficile de prévoir les crises économiques »

Series: Economic Issues

Author(s): Catherine Pattillo , and Andrew Berg

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 February 2001

Language: French

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781557758859.051

ISBN: 9781557758859

Keywords: early warning, warning system, early warning system, financial markets, currency crises, international reserves, international financial markets, overvaluation, financial institutions, real exchange rate overvaluation

The integration of financial markets around the world over the past decade has posed new challenges for policymakers. The speed with which money can be switched in and out of currencies and countries has increased...

Contagion

Contagion »

Source: Contagion : Monsoonal Effects, Spillovers, and Jumps Between Multiple Equilibria

Volume/Issue: 1998/142

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Masson

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 1998

ISBN: 9781451856224

Keywords: contagion, spillovers, multiple equilibria, currency crises, debt crisis, competitiveness

Several concepts of contagion are distinguished. It is argued that only models that admit of multiple equilibria are capable of producing true contagion. A simple balance of payments model is presented to illustrat...

The Uncertainty Channel of Contagion

The Uncertainty Channel of Contagion »

Source: The Uncertainty Channel of Contagion

Volume/Issue: 2009/219

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Prakash Kannan , and Fritzi Köhler-Geib

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2009

ISBN: 9781451873665

Keywords: investors, contagion, crisis country, rate of return, currency crises

The 2007 subprime crisis in the U.S. triggered a succession of financial crises around the globe, reigniting interest in the contagion phenomenon. Not all crises, however, are contagious. This paper models a new ch...

Rating the Rating Agencies

Rating the Rating Agencies »

Source: Rating the Rating Agencies : Anticipating Currency Crises or Debt Crises?

Volume/Issue: 2003/122

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Amadou Sy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2003

ISBN: 9781451854510

Keywords: Crisis, distress, early-warning systems, probability of default, ratings, currency crises, currency crisis, debt crises, bond, sovereign default

In contrast to the early-warning system literature, we find that currency and debt crises are not closely linked in emerging markets. We find that after 1994, credit ratings predict debt crises but fail to anticipa...