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Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model1

Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model1 »

Source: Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model

Volume/Issue: 2009/253

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Roberto Garcia-Saltos , Douglas Laxton , Michal Andrle , Haris Munandar , Charles Freedman , and Danny Hermawan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2009

ISBN: 9781451941715

Keywords: Macroeconomic Modeling, Bayesian Estimation, inflation, rate of inflation, real interest rate, Model Construction and Estimation,

This is the fifth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which ec...

Much Ado About Nothing? Estimating the Impact of a U.S. Slowdown on Thai Growth

Much Ado About Nothing? Estimating the Impact of a U.S. Slowdown on Thai Growth »

Source: Much Ado About Nothing? Estimating the Impact of a U.S. Slowdown on Thai Growth

Volume/Issue: 2008/140

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Shekhar Aiyar , and Ivan Tchakarov

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2008

ISBN: 9781451869989

Keywords: Growth, U.S. Slowdown, Bayesian Estimation, monetary policy, inflation, confidence intervals, correlation, equation,

External demand was the main driver of growth in Thailand in 2006 and 2007. However, WEO projections indicate moderating foreign demand in 2008, with U.S. growth being revised downwards to reflect the turmoil in ho...

An Assessment of Malaysian Monetary Policy During the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09

An Assessment of Malaysian Monetary Policy During the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09 »

Source: An Assessment of Malaysian Monetary Policy During the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09

Volume/Issue: 2012/35

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Selim Elekdag , Subir Lall , and Harun Alp

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2012

ISBN: 9781463933203

Keywords: financial accelerator, Bayesian estimation, DSGE model, exchange rate, exchange rate regime, exchange rate flexibility, fixed exchange rate regime, Bayesian Analysis, And The Supply Of Money And Credit,

Malaysia was hit hard by the global financial crisis of 2008-09. Anticipating the downturn that would follow the episode of extreme financial turbulence, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) let the exchange rate depreciate...

Shock Therapy! What Role for Thai Monetary Policy?

Shock Therapy! What Role for Thai Monetary Policy? »

Source: Shock Therapy! What Role for Thai Monetary Policy?

Volume/Issue: 2012/269

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Harun Alp , and Selim Elekdag

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 November 2012

ISBN: 9781475542851

Keywords: financial accelerator, Bayesian estimation, DSGE model, global financial crisis, Thai floods, emerging markets, exchange rate, inflation, exchange rate regime, emerging markets.

Thailand had to endure three major shocks during 2008-2011: the global financial crisis, the Japanese earthquake, and the Thai floods of 2011. Over this period, consistent with its inflation targeting framework, th...

A Macro-Model Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting for Vietnam

A Macro-Model Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting for Vietnam »

Source: A Macro-Model Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting for Vietnam

Volume/Issue: 2015/273

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Allan Dizioli , and Jochen M. Schmittmann

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 December 2015

ISBN: 9781513595665

Keywords: Bayesian Estimation, exchange rate, interest rates, monetary policy rule, central bank, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects),

The paper develops a small New-Keynesian FPAS model for Vietnam. The model closely matches actual data from 2000-2014. We derive an optimal monetary policy rule that minimizes variability of output, inflation, and...

Vietnam

Vietnam »

Source: Vietnam : Bayesian Estimation of Output Gap

Volume/Issue: 2010/149

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Wojciech Maliszewski

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2010

ISBN: 9781455201327

Keywords: Output Gap, Unobservable Component Model, Bayesian Methods, equation, equations, real interest rate, monetary policy, Model Construction and Estimation, Viet Nam,

The paper constructs a new output gap measure for Vietnam by applying Bayesian methods to a two-equation AS-AD model, while treating the output gap as an unobservable series to be estimated together with other para...

What Drives Credit Growth in Emerging Asia?

What Drives Credit Growth in Emerging Asia? »

Source: What Drives Credit Growth in Emerging Asia?

Volume/Issue: 2012/43

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fei Han , and Selim Elekdag

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2012

ISBN: 9781463936440

Keywords: rapid credit growth, emerging Asia, SVAR, Bayesian estimation, sign restrictions, aggregate demand, domestic monetary policy, inflation, financial stability, What Drives Credit Growth in Emerging Asia?

This paper seeks to uncover the main drivers of credit growth in emerging Asia using a multi-country structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. Taking a novel approach, we developed a two-block SVAR whereby sho...

Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model

Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model »

Volume/Issue: 2009/253

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Roberto Garcia-Saltos , Douglas Laxton , Michal Andrle , Haris Munandar , Charles Freedman , and Danny Hermawan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451941715.001

ISBN: 9781451941715

Keywords: Macroeconomic Modeling, Bayesian Estimation, inflation, rate of inflation, real interest rate, Model Construction and Estimation,

This is the fifth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which ec...

Much Ado About Nothing? Estimating the Impact of a U.S. Slowdown on Thai Growth

Much Ado About Nothing? Estimating the Impact of a U.S. Slowdown on Thai Growth »

Volume/Issue: 2008/140

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Shekhar Aiyar , and Ivan Tchakarov

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451869989.001

ISBN: 9781451869989

Keywords: Growth, U.S. Slowdown, Bayesian Estimation, monetary policy, inflation, confidence intervals, correlation, equation,

External demand was the main driver of growth in Thailand in 2006 and 2007. However, WEO projections indicate moderating foreign demand in 2008, with U.S. growth being revised downwards to reflect the turmoil in ho...

An Assessment of Malaysian Monetary Policy During the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09

An Assessment of Malaysian Monetary Policy During the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09 »

Volume/Issue: 2012/35

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Selim Elekdag , Subir Lall , and Harun Alp

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463933203.001

ISBN: 9781463933203

Keywords: financial accelerator, Bayesian estimation, DSGE model, exchange rate, exchange rate regime, exchange rate flexibility, fixed exchange rate regime, Bayesian Analysis, And The Supply Of Money And Credit,

Malaysia was hit hard by the global financial crisis of 2008-09. Anticipating the downturn that would follow the episode of extreme financial turbulence, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) let the exchange rate depreciate...